Yoruichi-san
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Posts posted by Yoruichi-san
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Yeah...probability is confusing like that...but the main thing people don't realize (or realize they know) is that probability is dependent on observation...i.e. the probability of an event changes after it has been observed (or becomes statistics instead of probability)...
Ever heard of Schrodinger's Cat or the collapse of the wavefunction? Well, to put it in a simple example: before you toss a coin, there is a 1/2 chance of heads and same for tails. Once you toss the coin, if you observe it turns up heads, that eliminates the possibility of tails, and then the probability becomes 1 that it was heads and 0 that it was tails. If you don't observe it (i.e. you don't know the result), the probability is still 1/2 1/2.
If you toss two coins, the probability of heads for each is 1/2. So if you ask "what is the probability of coin i being heads", the probability is 1/2. If you toss one coin first and observe the result, then ask what the probability of heads for the coin 2 is, the answer is 1/2.
However, if you toss 2 coins, the probability is 1/4 for each of the combos: HH HT TH TT. Now you observe one of the two is a head, so that eliminates the possibility of TT, but you don't know whether it is coin 1 or coin 2 and you don't have an observation for the other coin, so you have three equally likely possibilities, so the probability of any of the three is 1/3.
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Whatever, it's almost pointless now. I told the Saving roles who they needed to take care of since Slick was pretty much confirmed a loud-mouth innocent. So by trying to help him (and hopefully deter the QAs) they met up AND killed him. I'm done for no matter what now, even if I come out with my role no one is going to believe me anyways.
Crap...just had a thought...he could be the MoS...that would explain why he was so eager to link up with someone last night (since he was so close to being lynched yesterday...). Oh well, I guess if we lynch him and he survives we'll know...
Edit: The more I think about this, the more likely it is...he pretended to be trying to save Slick since he didn't really care if the healer/doctor saved Slick...the point was not to kill Slick, but to link up with another QA...this happens whether their target actually dies or not...but I think we still should lynch him, at the very least we'll know he is the MoS...
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I'll be around, always around...haunting you, taunting you, daunting you! So if you feel a cold breeze on the back of your neck you'll know it is the spirit of PG watching your every move! OOOOooooOOOooooooOOOOOooo!
Don't haunt *me*...if I had been at the execution, I would used my shinigami powers of super-speed to sweep you away and save you! (They *do* call Yoruichi "the goddess of flash")
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Cool, I was just trying to find it for you, but you beat me to it.
And you are right, I made the prediction and asked the defensive roles to save him. But they didn't, and then the QAs did, resulting in Slick's death. Sorry for trying to help people.
Yeah, right...why would the QAs listen to you? If you weren't a QA, then if they thought the saving roles had a chance of listening to you and trying to save slick, they wouldn't go after him...waste of a night...plenty of other ppl to go after...
Basically, by saying what you did, you told the QA's what they "should probably" do, so that you could meet up with the other QA...
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Sex (Secs) PuP
Running out of ideas on this one.
The first word is right...;P...for the second, well, this stuff sells news...
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Okay, I went and found the post, just to make my point...very clever, Brandon...XP
*Starts to make predictions*Well it seems that Slick must not be a mafioso since he was defending the Bomb.
No one that voted for the bomb is a mafioso.
The Mafiosos are hiding amongst the people that were not voting for PG.
It's very very likely that two of the people that came to PG's defense are actually the masked lovers. (meaning one of them is a mafioso).
So tonight, the mafiosos will probably go after me, b/c I may have called out a few of them. The QAs should probably go after a non-mafioso because it's a good idea for them to keep the other baddies alive. So they will go after Slick since he is not a mafioso. So I and Slick may need protection. But then again, GC may need protection also. He brought up the masked lover thing, which means that he is not a masked lover, and he is not a mafioso (is he was he would have tried to protect the masked lover in his group). So GC may need protection also (Janitor maybe?).
As for the QA's and the GR, I still have no idea. So they could be anyone.
So anyways, I'm going to have to give up being a pacifist and say:
Host: Unreality
1) Frost - DEAD [Grim Reaper] Killed by Mafia
2) Brandonb - voting for Grey Cells
3) Kingofpain - DEAD [Defender] Killed by QAs
4) Pw0nzd - voting for Brandonb
5) Cherry Lane - voting for Grey Cells
6) Dawh
7) Nayana - voting for Brandonb
8) Dnae
9) Scott - DEAD [?] Killed by Mafia
10) GC - voting for BrandonB
11) Puzzlegirl - DEAD [bomb]
12) Slick - DEAD [?] Killed by QAs
13) Kat - voting for Brandonb
14) Wreath - DEAD [Ninja] Killed by Grim Reaper
15) Joe's Student - voting for Brandonb
16) Johnson - voting for Grey Cells
17) Frozen - voting for Brandonb
18) CrazyPainter - voting for Brandonb
19) Yoruichi - voting for Brandonb
20) Mekal - DEAD [?] Blown up
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WOW...Awesomeville truly earns it's name...haha, the Mafia ended helping the QA's I guess....I hope the Sphinx has some good riddles...if not, I'd be more than happy to give him/her some
.Oh, and sorry, PG...when I had to go off to bed/work it seemed like Wreath was going to be a victim of random mob justice...I had no idea it would end with such a *bang*
(sorry, sense of humor again...)Anyways, for today, here is what I think:
Of course I am tricky! I want to stay alive
. I see that it could be possible for me to be a QA, as the QAs could be anyone right now. I can't be a mafioso, b/c I was voting for PG, and she was the bomb. I didn't know she was the bomb, or else I would have stayed the hell away from her. Slick and I had it out, sure. Which is why I would not try to kill him last night if I was a QA, I was trying to get the healer to protect him! I am an innocent!! STOP ACCUSING ME BECAUSE I LIKE TO PLAY THE GAME! 
True that the mafiosos wouldn't want to vote for the bomb, but they do want the bomb dead, and since, as someone said, the bomb is pretty safe in coming out (the innocents protect her and the mafia already know who she is), they would want to kill her before that happened and before she could lie-detect them, i.e. the first day, so a good strategy would be to accuse PG and show support by voting for her, but then once the ball got rolling and they got enough other people voting, they could "change their minds" and avoid the risk of blowing up...
If Brandon was mafia, then unfortunately for him, Brandon, it ended up being a close race b/w you and puzzlegirl, and if you changed your vote you would get lynched...it is better to take a 1/5 chance of being blown up than a 100% chance of being lynched...so the fact he voted for PG doesn't clear him...
I still don't believe you BB. Please give us some information that will CONFIRM you are an innocent. Otherwise its bye bye.I did check back and you did ask for slick to be saved. However, most of your time was spent yelling for all the healing roles to protect you.
Hmmm...assassin?
But actually, I think it is more likely that Brandonb is a QA, since if you notice from the story that the *other* QA finally found them...and if you remember (I don't feel like digging out the post from the 65 pages), Brandon made a "prediction" after the day was over, that the QAs should go after Slick...I think he was cleverly telling the third QA to go after Slick so that they could hook up...
BrandonB feels a rush of cold air pass and it bristles the hair on his neck. "P-P-P-Puzzlegirl? Is is that ya-ya-you?" his voice shaky as he speaks into the emptiness of the room. The cold air rushes by again this time rustling his clothing and the hair on his head. "Quit haunting me!!!" he shouts, but the only reply he recieves is the faint sound of laughter then a whirling dervish that sweeps him off his feet right onto his bum. The door of his room slams shut and the cold passes with it.
Please stay around, PG, I love your sense of humor! -
I think I finally have one correct!!
RuBiKS Cube
Well done! I like that one
I have a friend who is a competitive cuber...Brainstorming... Yoruichi-san mentioned that this one isn't as "innocent" as the first guess that actually fits the formula.1/cos = secant. Could be stretched to mean "second", but by definition a secant is a cut. So the word could be anything like cut, slice, slash...
Any other thoughts?
Hint: Don't stretch , compress
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Holy crap! I just read 34 pages...I have no idea what is going on...last time I checked it looked like Wreath was going get railroaded...and now it somehow ends with PG blowing up Mekal...well, lol...I guess *this* definitely supports my stance against capital punishment ;P (sorry, can't resist letting my sense of humor out to play, again...)
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Oh, and Frost, one thing (or actually three things) to keep in mind when you're "testing" someone:
MoS - Since apparently 2 QA's found each other last night, if he/she is one of them, he/she can't be lynched today
GR - Can't be lynched 1st day
Atheist - Can't be lynched. Period.
These characters wouldn't need to try to defend themselves since they're not going to die...although their roles might be revealed (I'm not sure how important this is to them, especially the atheist...)
Anyways, going to bed...probably won't be able to check back up on this until the "day" ends, so I'll leave you guys to fight it out and with this:
People lie, math doesn't. Random lynching gives 10/18 chance of hitting an innocent...the only people whose votes aren't random are the Mafiosos, who know each other and who want to kill everyone else, and I guess, the QAs who found each other...
Anyways, good luck!
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Geez people, I finally talk my husband into taking me to dinner and a movie (The Dark Knight was awesome btw!) and I'm getting pegged for lynching. In Mafia II I was lynched because I was too out-spoken, now I'm suspicious because I'm inactive? Anyhow, I haven't had a chance to read up on what folks have written. Give me a few minutes to review and I'll cast my vote.
Haha...anyone who likes Batman *can't* be evil! Plus, she *was* a victim last night too, even if her life wasn't stolen...
Not that it really matters, but ss for my vote, I guess I'll give dnae the benefit of the doubt of having too much free time
and retract my vote...although I'm gonna keep an eye out...I considered the other option of him being an inspector and got wreath pmed to him, but then since he changed his vote, I don't think that is the case (and wreath is probably innocent)...anyways, I'm going back to being a pacifist until I get further information...Host: Unreality
1) Frost - voting for Mekal
2) Brandonb - voting for Joe's Student
3) Kingofpain - DEAD [Defender] Killed by QAs
4) Pw0nzd - voting for Kat
5) Cherry Lane - voting for Joe's Student
6) Dawh - voting for Brandonb
7) Nayana
8) Dnae
9) Scott - DEAD [?] Killed by Mafia
10) GC
11) Puzzlegirl
12) Slick - voting for Cherry Lane
13) Kat -voting for Wreath
14) Wreath - voting for Joe's Student
15) Joe's Student - voting for Wreath
16) Johnson
17) Frozen - voting for Wreath
18) Javoie - voting for Wreath
19) Yoruichi - voting for banning capital punishment
20) Mekal - voting for Wreath
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Imaginary Creatures (C+RE+AT+U+RE+S)
Yep!
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NO, Unreal and me are in same timezones, there were only a few of us reading the night post at the time of the lynching beginning. I'm not fishy, But my sources tell me you like fish...and what Frost said BONDs you to a baddie reputation alright LOL
... I don't understand that reasoning...but the way I see it:
There are at least 10 innocents still alive (11 if Scott was a QA or GR, prolly not Mafia since they wouldn't off one of their own...or would they? O_o, jk...I doubt it, anyways...) and 8 (or 7 baddies), so there is a higher chance (10/18 as opposed to 8/18) of randomly lynching an innocent...
The Mafiosos want to kill everyone else, so they would be eager to get someone lynched the first day, and every successive day, and they know each other's identities, so they have 100% chance of voting for someone else, who they want to kill anyways...plus since it is the first day, and people don't really have any information and will just "go with the flow" (as has been demonstrated
), if they start off early suggesting someone to lynch, it's likely that person will be railroaded......which is why I'm definitely *not* voting for wreath or Joe unless someone gives me a good reason...
Edit: P.S. My response to Frost is: give me a break for having a sense of humor...I added the second post afterwards when I thought of the "hell have no fury..." thing, especially since it goes so well with the humor in my first response...;P
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Let me guess: you're voting for dnae because dnae is voting for you...
Lol...well I didn't really want to vote for lynching anyone on the first day (higher chance of randomly offing an innocent than a baddie...), but since Dnae accused me of inactivity, I figured, why not...it's ironically amusing...
Plus, now that I think about it, I find it *highly* suspicious that he was so eager to start the lynching...that smells fishy to me...(maybe cuz he just got back from making Scott or KP sleep with the fishes?).
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Okay, fine then...cuz "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned"...;P
1) Frost
2) Brandonb - voting for Joe's Student
3) Kingofpain - DEAD [Defender] Killed by QAs
4) Pw0nzd
5) Cherry Lane - voting for Joe's Student
6) Dawh - voting for Brandonb
7) Nayana
8) Dnae - voting for Yoruichi
9) Scott - DEAD [?] Killed by Mafia
10) GC
11) Puzzlegirl
12) Slick - voting for Joe's Student
13) Kat - voting for Wreath
14) Wreath - voting for Joe's Student
15) Joe's Student - voting for Wreath
16) Johnson
17) Frozen - voting for Wreath
18) Javoie
19) Yoruichi - voting for Dnae
20) Mekal - voting for Wreath
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1) Frost
2) Brandonb - voting for Joe's Student
3) Kingofpain - DEAD [Defender] Killed by QAs
4) Pw0nzd
5) Cherry Lane - voting for Joe's Student
6) Dawh - voting for Brandonb
7) Nayana
8) Dnae - voting for Yoruichi
9) Scott - DEAD [?] Killed by Mafia
10) GC
11) Puzzlegirl
12) Slick - voting for Joe's Student
13) Kat - voting for Wreath
14) Wreath - voting for Joe's Student
15) Joe's Student - voting for Wreath
16) Johnson
17) Frozen - voting for Wreath
18) Javoie
19) Yoruichi
20) Mekal - voting for Wreath
I'm switching my vote to innactives, I can't stand that. However, Yoruichi san, if you are just in different time zone than me then disregard
Uh...lol? Look at post #85...you should see my familiar purple-haired avatar...geez, and here I thought I was the kind of girl that caught the attention of every guy in the room...;P
...or am I "inactive" for being not-bloodthirsty and not wanting to vote to lynch someone on the first day? XP
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Gaaah! This is so hard...I've been looking back at this every hour or so (instead of doing my work like I should be XP), and I don't know who to vote for...I need a 18 sided die...well I guess I could just divide into 3 groups of 6...lol, this is turning into a grouping puzzle...I dunno...guess I still have time to make up my mind...or can we abstain from voting?
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Well then,Fish FrY
Yep
Time is Money
Yes!
Imaginary Friend?No...here's a hint: unreality would get the picture...
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Haha...so someone dug this up...I was beginning to think it would be relegated to the ranks of the forgotten wastelands...
Not gonna post answers, though (sorry JIf
)...it's a sequence puzzle so the solution is objective, not subjective, so even if I die or (less likely ;P) retire from BrainDen, someone can still figure out the correct answer.... -
You can always write y as y=x^a (where a is not necessarily an integer) by taking a = log(base x) of y.
So we can rewrite x^y=y^x as:
x^(x^a)=(x^a)^x
Using the fact that (A^B)^C =A^(B*C), the right side can be rewritten, and then we have:
x^(x^a)=x^(a*x)
In order for this to be true, then we have to have (x^a)=(a*x), which is true for a=1 (making x=y), or a=2 and x=+/-2.
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Well...yeah, pretty much...right mathmatical operator, wrong words...
separation of powers
Multiply like rabbitsYep!
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Circle of Life !
Yes
Division of Powers Almost, first word isn't correct...the phrase is more commonly used with a different word
ignorance is blissYes! Good.
I got one!Oval Office
Yes. Very good
Could it be that simple...Imaginary Number?No...second word is wrong.
Schroedinger's CAt!Hehe...*of course!*
It could be seconds late .
Good work jif.
Wow, that actually works...I didn't realize there could be more than one answer, lol, but actually the answer I was looking for was something else...something less innocent
If that were 115 instead of 126, I would say it's "Pois(s)on IVY."Yeah, but its not 115..."put it in plain *English*" (hint hint ;P)
Good work, all. So far 1,2,6,13 have been solved completely. Good starts on 4,7,8,11. Keep it up!
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maybe this will help
[spoiler='mnemonic
']the mnemonic for the color spectrum is "roygbiv" maybe thats what spelling it out means
Not a mneumonic, but Trogdor had the right thing in relation to light (correctly interpreting one of my hidden hints...)
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I'll wait for the explanation later, because right now I totally don't get what you've done there.
[hence i'm referring to every part]
Okay, well, if you look back at post 29, basically Trogdor had figured out several important clues, and I made the other important clue very clear...also woon in his last post was totally on the right track, so combine what they did and you should be able to get it...
Mafia IV
in Games
Posted
Yeah...I say give Dawh a break...I might need one someday
...some of us who are not on summer vacation (and would like to keep our jobs ;P) can't be on-call...
Well, since the GR is dead, the other QA's will probably try to go after the Sphinx, and with all the cat clues (which may be red herrings, but I dunno...) I would suggest protecting Kat...
I don't know who the mafia are going after, I doubt they would go after GC, seeing how he was instrumental in getting rid of the bomb for them...
...or I have this ominous foreboding that by seeing through BB's clever strategy I just painted a giant target on my own head...*crap*