Yoruichi-san
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Posts posted by Yoruichi-san
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Finally got one . Without jif , this answer wouldn't have found it's way .
Sex Scandal .
Yep, lol
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The Masked Lovers only both die if one is lynched...read the rules on page one. If one is killed at night, the other lover is safe. At least that's what I remember reading, so coming out is a double-edged sword; you are safe for the lynching and dead at night.
Of course that means that the innocent masked lover could already be dead... 
As for GC and Y-s, it definitely seems like one of them has to be a mafia member, but as to which, I'm not entirely sure. Other than her attacking GC, I haven't seen Yoruichi-san do anything terribly suspicious; and her actions in that regard seem more like self-defense. Then again, GC was willing to take the rap for the bomb lynching, which seems very unmafiaish (that should be a word
). Of course, he could have read the rules, realized that he had good odds, and counted on others not reading the rules, but that seems a little bit of a stretch. 
So, such as it is, I still can't make a final decision; I'm waiting for more evidence.
BTW, once all of the QAs were dead, Unreality mentioned that the Warlock might still be an important character...does anyone know why?
Yeah, if the ML comes out, he/she will definitely be killed at night...if he/she doesn't, the mafia may have to waste time trying to get him/her lynched...hmmm...this means that we would know that the mafia were within the people who voted to lynch him/her, b/c they knew he/she was innocent. So it is definitely better for the ML to stay secret...
I don't think I was attacking GC, for defense or otherwise. what happened was this:
I knew GC was lying about having evidence, and I realized that it had the effect of making the other innocents suspect me for no good reason and go looking for the nonexistent evidence. The only reason I saw that he would want this is if he was a mafioso trying to divert suspicion away from the mafiosos. After suspecting him of being a mafioso, I began to search for evidence to confirm this suspicion, and the more I looked at the evidence, the more suspicious I became...and I shared my observations/analysis. He made counterarguments, and I counter-countered...;P
Yeah...I don't know what's up with the warlock...I hope it means he/she can blow up mafia now...
Edit: Yeah, anyways, I will think more about it as well...
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hmmm, Yoruchi san, Grey cells......oh my!
keep it up, the more you banter back and forth, the more
reason I have to suspect one of you....
Usually the one who talks the most,
lets just say this, people with big cars are making up for something....
Haha...but this is only true if what they talk about is rubbish...I dunno, maybe it's because I'm a scientist, who goes to seminars (lectures) and listens to people talk about new discoveries and stuff, but if what a person talks about makes sense and can help me understand/see things I didn't see before, then I think that person is great
. The more insight they have, the more they will talk, and the more I want to hear! -
Hi all,
I know I have said a lot, but please, please, please read my posts! I have not been trying to defend myself, since there is nothing to defend against...I have not done anything. What I have been doing is trying to make observations about the evidence and my analysis of it. Granted, I *guess* it is possible for me to be wrong
, but I know my logic is sound...and logic is what will win this for the innocents. The mafia will try to hide by pulling the curtain over your eyes and confusing the issue by being loud and trying to cast suspicion on innocents, but if we try to find the truth through logic (like how I realized BB was the MoS), we *will* win. -
That's the point . If I was the most vocal , I can't be a mafioso and vice-versa . Why would I want attention on me the very first day, if I were a mafioso? And I wouldn't risk making a lie-detectable statement( I am an innocent ) . Because at that stage PG had even chances of escaping from the lynch (remember Brandon was almost lynched) and she could have lie-detected my statement that night . So why I would I risk it if I were a mafioso?
That's *exactly* my point...why GC absolutely could not risk letting PG live, at the risk of being blown up himself...he knew that if she lived, she would check him, so he had to kill her and take the 1/5 (or was it 1/6) chance that he would get blown up to the 100% chance that she would discover he was lying if she checked you. He probably had not originally planned to have to end up voting for her, but it was just another "plan" that went wrong...
And I did not *dump suspicion* on anyone, I am simply making observations about the evidence and giving my analysis of it. GC is the one who tried to "dump suspicion" on me by accusing me of being one of the mafiosos with *absolutely no evidence* at all, and he did it by *lying* about having evidence. I am sorry, but doing that makes him the most suspicious of all, and the way he did it with the clever little spoiler makes him the most devious, and therefore I think he is the most dangerous baddie to have around.
And yes, I am using "he" instead of "you" because I am now convinced that GC is indeed a mafioso and therefore nothing I say will affect his actions. I am speaking directly to the innocents left with me and hoping you will listen and ally with me to win this for the innocents. GC tried to cast suspicion on me, and it not only failed, but alerted my suspicions about him. When he realized it had failed, he tried to back down and convince me that he was an innocent, which I can't believe after making these observations. He has now realized that he can't convince me of his innocence and has therefore gone back to trying to cast the suspicion on me.
I have tried to put my observations/reasoning as clearly as I can (I admit I am a little hurried and really sleepy XP), and as I have said, I have faith in my fellow innocents. I don't know when Unreality is going to leave for the weekend, so I leave you until next week with this: I know of my own innocence, so I didn't hesitate to call GC's bluff. He wavers all over the place with his assertions/accusations. I think it's pretty clear...now we should try to figure out who the other mafia are...like I said, I think CL and johnson are mafia, but I really am unsure about the last one...
Good night, and have a great weekend all! (Including you Unreality
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Oh well ! Yoruichi . I don't know if you are a mafioso or not . You were just a part of my plan I had , which went horribly wrong .
I am a confirmed innocent . That should be clear now , after the QA's have won and GR dead and I am not a mafioso , since I wouldn't have taken the risk of lynching the bomb the very first time and getting killed the very first day . So I have a suggestion , the masked lover who is an innocent should come out now . We will not lynch you , as we wouldn't want to lose you now and neither would the mafioso .
So you are safe in coming out now and you would be helping the innocents . So there's no danger , just help the innocents .
Ha! Yes, your plan *did* go horribly wrong: I called your bluff, and you couldn't deliver, demonstrating your own guilt...
And the more I think about the bomb thing, the more I think it confirms your guilt rather than your innocence...
Like Unreality said in his "tips" section, it may be worth it for the mafia to go after the bomb...and the best time to do this is *the first day*, since there will be the most people to spread out the risk of blowing up across, and, since the first day lynching is usually a "jumping on the bandwagon" thing, it is the most likely that the mafia would get enough votes so that they could "change their minds" at the last moment, like I said...unfortunately for you, before you had a chance of changing your vote, PG managed to convince others to change theirs, and you couldn't lose your chance to get rid of the bomb, because, especially after she came out with being the bomb, the innocents wouldn't lynch her again, and the mafia would have to shoulder all the risk of getting rid of her yourselves, instead of dispersing it among innocents and QAs like the lynching did...
...plus, for you, who was one of the most vocal in trying to lynch her (besides BB, who was obviously trying to save himself), it was most risky to let her live because she would most likely check on one of your statements, and since she had come out, she could freely say you were lying and identify you as a mafioso.
I'm sorry GC, but now that you've alerted me to be suspicious of you, you can't get out of it now...
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Sex (Secs) in the City
No, one # means one word...
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I have a suggestion... that would make the puzzles easier.
e.g.
9. (162)^3
9. (162(6))^3 to give a little hint to the number of letters involved
Lol...but I don't want it to be easier...I think it is exactly the right difficulty...people have been getting these at what I think is a good pace...;P
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Wow, this is getting intense!!!
Hmm.... Should I give a clue to a couple of the Mafioso Identities?
Nah, These clever innocents should be fine on their own....
Yeah, we will
So I'm thinking the mafiosos are GC, CL, and johnson (not sure about the fourth one)
I'm pretty sure CP is innocent, and since Dawh is like me in not randomly making accusations and thinking logically before he posts and giving deductions/observations that help the innocents, I think he is probably innocent as well.
I think either GC or CL is the bankroller...they've been arguing very conspicuously the entire time, but neither has really been in danger of lynching. So when the bankroller dies, the other looks innocent because he/she can claim they were against the other the whole time...
Actually, looking at the last vote, I think it is probably GC, since both CL and johnson voted for him.
As for who I think we should lynch first(*sniff* I'm still a pacifist at heart...;P) I would go with GC, since he is the most devious, and if he is the bankroller, we would find out...
To be honest, I don't know if GC thought out his strategy of fingering me as much as I analyzed it, but I do think he was trying to cast suspicion on me. Without a *shred* of evidence, he made people suspect me and try to pick out red herrings...the spoiler box was a nice touch...it made it seem like more of a puzzle, and this being Brainden, after all, no one can resist trying to solve a puzzle...O_o
I'm really glad you guys were smart enough not to be pulled in too much by it! I have faith in my fellow innocents
.And sorry if I got a little worked up w/ the Holmes/Moriarty analogy...I get excited when I'm going after a baddie...like I think I declared my love for the warlock with *a few too many* exclamation marks...;P
Edit: Actually, I realized maybe he just picked me to finger out because I was the only one not online at the time to defend myself, lol...
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*looking down from awesomeville heaven*
NOOO!!! how could the innocents let the QA's get away with that!
i will not die in vain!(oh wait, i already did)
DARN YOU QA'S!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and your little mafia friends too
Lol...ok, I get the point. I guess Scott was the QA after all...or a third option is that it could have been pw0nzd, and BB was the "last" QA to join up, but then I would have thought that he would have been included in the Sphinx kill...like Frost killed the ninja before being offed by the mafia...
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hey, thanks... anyways, I've been thinking about how puzzlegirl acts as a ghost and I think that is hilarious, so I'm going to give it a shot.
As dawn slowly begins to crawl its way up the horizon, a golden mist settles over the tumbling hills and musty houses of Awesomeville. The Mafiosos, wrapping their dark suits around them, anxious to get back to their lonely hideout, shiver as the mist seems to wrap around their pale bodies like a vice. The few Innocents that remain raise their sunken eyes as they bury the dead body of Joe's Student and breathe in the fresh scent of warm, homemade chocolate chip cookies. Almost in a trance, they turn around and see the shimmering, transparent form of Frozen sitting at the edge of the Awesomeville fountain, whistling a tuneless melody. He smiles faintly and melds into the form of a golden lion, roaring as he leaps into an alleyway and disappears.
Not bad, right? Probably needs some work.Nice
...I hope you're disappearing into the alley to go spy on GC trying to plot my demise...;PEdit: Speaking of which, where is this so-called "evidence" he promised? The others didn't do enough work for him, so there has not been enough time for him to make up something himself?
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Hmm...another thing I noticed was that strange was the fact that the thief stole from ejohnson...since it's Night/Day 3, the inspector gets PMed a QA name, not a mafia name, and the spy only works on even days...so there's no reason to steal an identity...unless the thief is trying to make one of his/her cohorts look innocent by stealing from them...
Well, I'm going to be out for about five hours...I hope I get back in time, but *please* don't do anything rash, like Unreality said, this decision is important.
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uummmmmm... no one ever said i was a QA
that accuation hurts, it really hurts
Hmm...well if you're telling the truth, then it had to be Scott...but I thought he was a computer player? Well, lol, maybe *that's* how they "found" each other on the first night...I apologize if that's the case...if not,
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Yeah...I'm not sure why GC is suspicious of me...unless...
Wait...wow, that's clever...if he is mafia...
Okay, so there are 4 mafiosos and 5 innocents. That means the mafia have to cast suspicion on 4 innocents. Since CP just joined, it's highly unlikely they can cast suspicion on her, so the rest of us (including yours truly) have to be targeted.
Since I didn't really do anything suspicious (cuz I'm not), he has a quandry...the solution:
He pretends he has some clever secret evidence against some people, and "secretly" drops a name of a player. Then he leaves, saying he'll be back at some unspecified time in the future, and leaves everyone else to ponder this.
So what result does this have? I realized that this has the result of making everyone suspicious of the named player, even if the player hadn't been suspicious before. They try to find the "evidence" he was talking about, seeing clues in things that aren't really there (like the match thing). Basically, he leaves everyone else to do his work for him, and find "evidence" against the named player. He can check back at certain times to see if enough "evidence" has been compiled. The worst case scenario is that no one can find any "evidence", and he's left to try to spin something himself...
To be honest, I think this is very clever...the QA Moriarty fell, the Mafia Moriarty arises, huh? Well, this Holmes is ready for any number of Moriarties, so bring it! Let's see what "evidence" you come up with...
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Gaaahhhh....Brandon's corpse is laughing in it's grave...
Well, anyways, thanks Frozen. You are my knight in shining armor
Ok now this is bugging me.yeah Bb and Y-s have met their Mafia matches ;D
Anyone care to shed some light? Why is this phrase
giving me such a red flag?
I suppose because I was thinking that both of them were
QAs. Now Bb is known to be MoS, QA.
I thought Yoruichi was a QA too. Since th QAs are all found out
who would be a mafia match for YS? Hmmm...
need more time to think...
Yeah, as Unreality said, he was referring to the fact that BB hatched a clever ploy, and I saw through it...
Actually, I'm pretty sure the other QA is dead, and was Mekal (as Dawh has figured out as well).
Doing my best Adrian Monk impression: Here's what happened:
On Night 1, Mekal (MoD?) and BB (MoS) found each other by going after KoP.
On Day 1, BB was almost lynched and they both voted for PG to save his identity from being exposed...what they didn't account for was that PG was the bomb and would end up blowing up Mekal...
...This left BB (MoS) exposed to lynching, and seeing how close he had been to being lynched on Day 1, it was highly likely that he would be lynched on Day 2, so he was desperate to find the final QA. To do this, *after* the day ended, he hastily posted a "predictions" post, which was actually cleverly disguised instructions for the other QA to go after Slick. He didn't care whether or not Slick actually died, so he hid his intentions under the guise of trying to get the saving roles to protect Slick.
On Night 2, if JS was the MoE, he could have queried about BB and found out he was indeed a QA, or JS might have must thought (like a lot of others, apparently XP) that BB was a QA...anyways it wouldn't hurt JS to target Slick, so he did, and the two met up.
On Day 2, as expected, BB gets lynched. JS, realizing that BB wouldn't die, but would be exposed, and thus would likely be targeted by the warlock and die soon, pretends to be one of the people against BB as to not raise suspicion against himself. BB gets lynched, escapes...and finds he has been warlocked! Hehe....
On Night 3, JS finds Frozen and ends up winning it for the QA's T_T
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Umm, sorry for being confusing. I understand where you are coming from, but the way I see it, it's not the wording, it's how you read the wording:
"You observe one of the two is heads" can be read either:
"You observe one of the two is heads" -i.e. you observe one coin, or
"You observe one of the two is heads" -i.e, you observe the phenomenon that one out of two coins is heads...I know the perspective of a person who has not suffered through as much quantum physics as I have ;P this does not make much sense, since when usually talking about coins, "observe" means to "see", but this is not necessarily the case in probability theory, especially when applied to physics, for example, you can't "see" an electron...but scientists "observe" phenomenon by measuring certain properties which are indicative of that phenomenon...
So in summary, I apologize for being confusing and inconsiderate of the perspective of normal people, but I don't think I was wrong in what I said, based on my own experiences (which have been difficult...which is probably why I feel the need to say this :/)
Anyways, my original point was that there is a difference between the probability of the second coin being heads based on whether you "observe" a particular coin or whether you "observe" the phenomenon of one out of the two coins being heads, because the fact that you have "observed" something changes the probability (and differently depending on what you observed).
In the first case, you only "observed" one coin, which now has a probability of 1 of being heads and 0 of being tails. So the probability of the second coin is still 1/2 1/2. In the second case, you "observed" a fact about both coins, and that fact (that one coin is heads) changes the probability to 1/3 2/3 since it removes the possibility of TT.
The arguments for 1/2 were the first case, and the arguments for 1/3 were the second case. This problem, as far as I can tell, is the second case.
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If that had been what you actually wrote, then I would have never claimed you were wrong as that would have been a rewording of the riddle.
Umm, sorry for being confusing. I understand where you are coming from, but the way I see it, it's not the wording, it's how you read the wording:
"You observe one of the two is heads" can be read either:
"You observe one of the two is heads" -i.e. you observe one coin, or
"You observe one of the two is heads" -i.e, you observe the phenomenon that one out of two coins is heads...I know the perspective of a person who has not suffered through as much quantum physics as I have ;P this does not make much sense, since when usually talking about coins, "observe" means to "see", but this is not necessarily the case in probability theory, especially when applied to physics, for example, you can't "see" an electron...but scientists "observe" phenomenon by measuring certain properties which are indicative of that phenomenon...
So in summary, I apologize for being confusing and inconsiderate of the perspective of normal people, but I don't think I was wrong in what I said, based on my own experiences (which have been difficult...which is probably why I feel the need to say this :/)
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No one else noticed those clues
Hmm.... I think I may have met my match
No worries though, BrandonB will be back......
Thank you, high compliment
.Actually, it was really clever...this is really fun...which is why I'd *really* like not to die tonight... O_O
Okay...I'll shut up now ;P
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This is wrong. If you randomly observed one of the two and see that it landed on heads, then the probability the other landed on heads is 1/2. In this example, you can just replace "first coin' with "observed coin". Your probabilities are now:
observed coin:H
unobserved coin:H
observed coin:H
unobserved coin:T
This is different than the situation in the riddle. However, if the riddle stated that the couple has two children and you went to visit their house and one of the children answered the door and the child was a girl, the probability that the other child is also a girl is 1/2.
Now, you may be thinking, "Wait a minute here. What's the difference if you see one of the children and it's a girl vs. you don't see one and are told at least one is a girl? Why can't we do the same thing in the riddle and claim one child is a girl and the probability that the other child is also a girl is 1/2?"
Well, that's pretty much been explained above. Once you observe a child randomly (we'll assume there's just as much of a chance of either boy or girls answering the door), the probability that her sibling is a girl is 1/2. We are zeroing in on a specific individual, while in the riddle we are picking the physical possibilities from the expanded set of all possible permutations. These are your probabilities:
- Girl at the door, girl in the backyard
- Girl at the door, boy in the backyard
Now, lets suppose you didn't visit the family yourself. A friend of yours did, and reported: "The couple has two children. One answered the door. The other was out in the backyard playing at the time. At least one of them is a girl." These are your probabilities:
- Boy at the door, girl in the backyard
- Girl at the door, boy in the backyard
- Girl at the door, girl in the backyard
If you know that one specific child is a girl, it's different from knowing that 'the kids are not both boys', (which is the same thing as saying that at least one of the children is a girl but not specifying which in any way.)
No, but you didn't observe a particular coin, what you observed (or in this case, was told) was that *one* of the two coins was heads, sorry, I guess the phrasing makes it confusing (I'm used to talking about this in terms of electrons and wavefunctions...), I guess think of it in terms of a computer simulation of a coin toss where the results screen tells you that one of the coins (not a particular coin) was heads...
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Lol, no real anime? I agree with most of your list, Itachi-san, but I have to put Baccano! somewhere at the top (especially if you count the specials). Ergo Proxy and RahXephon would probably make my list as well...Eva's my fave, though, since it was one of the first real animes (besides dubbed Sailor Moon on tv) that I saw, and it *totally* changed the way I look at things...
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In Mafia V I want to be the lawyer role that I suggested for Maf IV! That way everyone won't be trying to lynch me from the word go!
...then everyone would know who you were...???
Lol, sorry, and I wasn't trying to lynch you from the word go...I was all for lynching no one last night, remember? I have nothing against you...I just can't ignore the clues, sorry...
As an aside, I think we should have a "fairy godmother" role for Mafia V, which grants the wish of one person a night to save someone else or something...although the pming could get confusing...
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Oh, common...all the pieces were falling in place...don't stop now!
in New Logic/Math Puzzles
Posted
Yeah, Melancholy was awesome...and it's *so* not girly, lol, all of my guy friends who watch anime love it, it parodies girly anime, but in itself, it is not girly...my favorite episode (or episodes) is the one that parodies detective anime...I'm addicted to those myself...(ahhhh....500+ episodes of Detective Conan and still going!!!)
And you should *definitely* watch Baccano!...I've been telling all my friends that...hehe