Assuming there are 52 cards, four of which are aces, and that the cards are shuffled randomly and not in any order that we know about:
drawing one ace: 4/52
If he did draw an ace, he takes it away, now there are 51 cards- and 3 aces
drawing another ace: 3/51
(in other words, Alex is correct)
In order to get both, it is AND, and 'and' is multiplication: (4*3) / (51*52) or 12/2652 or 1/221
Assuming the deck isnt touched, is still random, has 52 cards, etc:
To keep drawing and draw two CONSECUTIVE aces, you WILL draw one ace. The chances to draw an ace on the next card is n/# where n is the number of aces left in the deck and # is the number of cards left in the deck.
So now we have to figure out the average probability.
Say Card 1 is an ace.
We have a 3/51 chance. If it is not an ace, we have 3/50 for the next draw, etc. This method is nice for looking and understand, but not for getting the answer.
We have to look at the overall positioning of the deck, saying its random, since nothing is moved or replaced between drawings. Now it is clear that the cards being randomly distributed is important.
The chance of one particular ace being a particular spot: 1/52
The chance of another partciular ace of being in a particular spot (above or below): 1/52
Thus one would think that there are 1/(52^2) possibilities. But they would be forgetting that there are FOUR aces and TWO spots- above and below the first card. First the above and below:
First card: 1/52
Second card: 2/51 (twice chance of first)
however now we factor in that there are FOUR and then it would be down to THREE if one is drawn:
First card: 4/52
Second card: 6/51 (3*2)
thus 24/2652 or 2/221
Remember the first bet was 1/221
This only twice as likely... but neither are very likely.
If he did go for the bet, to make it even and if he pays a penny ($0.01) to do it:
2/221 = 1/110.5
He should win $1.10 or $1.11 if he wins, depending on how you round
am i close to right? lol ;p