Framm 18 Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 I don't quite see what how you can determine what side I am on through the posts seeing I acted on myself and Hirk and neither seemed to show up in the posts... This is just speculation but considering my approach to this game don't you think I would have been targeted by the instigator? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShadowAngel7 Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 The NP doesn't show whether a particular actor is mafia or not, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mewminator Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 (edited) I don't quite see what how you can determine what side I am on through the posts seeing I acted on myself and Hirk and neither seemed to show up in the posts... This is just speculation but considering my approach to this game don't you think I would have been targeted by the instigator? Yeah, that post made it even less likely that we're on the same team, I can't determine which side you're on but I can tell whether you're with me or not. Edited June 19, 2012 by mewminator Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mewminator Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 (edited) wrong post Edited June 19, 2012 by mewminator Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Framm 18 Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 The NP doesn't show whether a particular actor is mafia or not, though. Which is why I don't get how to narrow down unless he is the same role as me (block) and even then it is a 50/50 shot of me not being the same faction as him. *idk* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShadowAngel7 Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 Yeah, that post made it less likely that we're on the same team. The only way "don't you think I'd have been instigated" makes it less likely y'all are on the same team is if YOU are awakened mafia...unless you think he'd use that obviously scummy a defense.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Framm 18 Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 Change my vote to Mew please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mewminator Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 btw, block showed up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Framm 18 Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 (edited) OK, it looked like I misread the post... it looked like just Kill and Save targeted Hirk. Edited June 19, 2012 by Framm 18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mewminator Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 The only way "don't you think I'd have been instigated" makes it less likely y'all are on the same team is if YOU are awakened mafia...unless you think he'd use that obviously scummy a defense.... that's not the part that made it less likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flamebirde Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 who blocked me? it doesn't matter if anyone decides to out themselves at this point. I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yodell Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 statistical analysis on the NP and a couple of your posts are the ones reducing the odds, rather than playing as a villager or mafia, I'm playing as a neutral, I check who is likely or not in being on my team, and vote for the least likely. mew .. i don't get it .. i'm not taking sides in this.. but if you are neutral.. how could anyone be in your team ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShadowAngel7 Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 Outing is slightly risky....if your role's mafia is awake, you're a safe kill for the mafia. But there's a 4/11+4/11=8/11 chance that any mafia is awake, with a 1/4 chance that it's your role's mafia, if only one mafia awake. If 2 mafia awake, it's 1/2 chance. Odds that 2 mafia are awake are 4/11*3/10=6/55. 32/55*1/4+6/55*1/2=8/55+3/55=11/55=1/5 chance that any given player is a safe kill for the mafia. Up to y'all if 20% risk is safe enough for you, but for me it isn't yet. Especially since odds are going to only go up over time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yodell Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 Outing is slightly risky....if your role's mafia is awake, you're a safe kill for the mafia. But there's a 4/11+4/11=8/11 chance that any mafia is awake, with a 1/4 chance that it's your role's mafia, if only one mafia awake. If 2 mafia awake, it's 1/2 chance. Odds that 2 mafia are awake are 4/11*3/10=6/55. 32/55*1/4+6/55*1/2=8/55+3/55=11/55=1/5 chance that any given player is a safe kill for the mafia. Up to y'all if 20% risk is safe enough for you, but for me it isn't yet. Especially since odds are going to only go up over time. your numbers are a bit off... i wont even begin to dream to do the calculations but there are 3 of each role not 4 , right ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yodell Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 gtg ... it's close to 1 AM here... see u all tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShadowAngel7 Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 Outing is slightly risky....if your role's mafia is awake, you're a safe kill for the mafia. But there's a 4/11+4/11=8/11 chance that any mafia is awake, with a 1/4 chance that it's your role's mafia, if only one mafia awake. If 2 mafia awake, it's 1/2 chance. Odds that 2 mafia are awake are 4/11*3/10=6/55. 32/55*1/4+6/55*1/2=8/55+3/55=11/55=1/5 chance that any given player is a safe kill for the mafia. Up to y'all if 20% risk is safe enough for you, but for me it isn't yet. Especially since odds are going to only go up over time. Ugh, I just realized that panther's death doesn't change that it's 1/3 odds of getting a mafia N1....and that the N1 attempt goes away for N2 as well....so it's 1/3+1/5=8/15 odds of any mafia awake, 1/3*1/5=1/15 odds 2 mafia alive. 8/15*1/4+1/15*1/2=2/15+1/30=5/30=1/6 odds your role's mafia is alive. Still a bit much risk for me to be all eager.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShadowAngel7 Posted June 19, 2012 Report Share Posted June 19, 2012 your numbers are a bit off... i wont even begin to dream to do the calculations but there are 3 of each role not 4 , right ? the 4's don't represent the number of each role, they represent the number of mafia roles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thalia Posted June 20, 2012 Report Share Posted June 20, 2012 (edited) Change my vote to Mew please. PI: Y-san Roster: 1. Hirkala 2. Framm 18 - Voting for mew 3. MikeD 4. EDM 5. Flamebirde 6. mew- Voting for Framm 7. Panther - DEAD [sAVE, Villager] Lynched 8. Thalia- Voting for MikeD 9. ShadowAngel- Voting for MikeD 10. Aaryan 11.TheCube - DEAD Killed by Mafia 12.Yodell 13. MiKi - DEAD Killed by KILL Looks like we have a three way tie. I think I'll break that so we don't have a three person lynch. . . Random among the three. Edited June 20, 2012 by Thalia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Framm 18 Posted June 20, 2012 Report Share Posted June 20, 2012 *sigh* I get that we have limited info, but seriously no one wants to talk? Also only 4 votes so far... We need people to talk. We know for sure there are no more than 2 saves left, so that would be a potential 50/50 shot, and there are probably other 50/50 lynches that we could attempt as well. *shrug* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeD Posted June 20, 2012 Report Share Posted June 20, 2012 Just woke up so my brain is not fully functioning yet, but since mafia had a kill, then either thet randomly kill someone, or they knew TheCube was not mafia. If they knew that TheCube was not mafia, the instigator must of tried to awaken him on one of the nights and failed, so in fact only one other mafia may be awaken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeD Posted June 20, 2012 Report Share Posted June 20, 2012 Addressing my two votes so far Thalia was random, so she says. And the other one is becasue I tie things up yesterday. both in my view don't have much reason, so i can't defend against them. I will vote soon, i just want to re-read a few things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thalia Posted June 20, 2012 Report Share Posted June 20, 2012 Addressing my two votes so far Thalia was random, so she says. And the other one is becasue I tie things up yesterday. both in my view don't have much reason, so i can't defend against them. I will vote soon, i just want to re-read a few things. Random among the three that were being voted for. I didn't see what good voting for someone else would do since that would result in a 4 person lynch if no one else showed up. I don't think there's much reasoning at this point since most of us know next to nothing and those of us who do know something barely know much more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeD Posted June 20, 2012 Report Share Posted June 20, 2012 From what I see I have 1/3 chance of being a mafia. So I should play like a villager and try look for the person who seems most likely the instigator (who may or may not be dead). But since the instigator is the only one who would who is mafia, he has more power, so its likely that mafia will win, so I just going to play to keep alive. So I vote for Mew. (I know I tie things up again ) @ Thalia, since your vote was random (among the three), you shouldn't have a problem changing it to mew to break the new tie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mewminator Posted June 20, 2012 Report Share Posted June 20, 2012 (edited) We know that framm is a block, seeing as how all blocks are active, all 3 acting the first night, it looks like hirk or flame are the second block, not sure about the third though. Can mafia kill be blocked? Are any kills blocking Edited June 20, 2012 by mewminator Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoruichi-san Posted June 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2012 We know that framm is a block, seeing as how all blocks are active, all 3 acting the first night, it looks like hirk or flame are the second block, not sure about the third though. Can mafia kill be blocked? Are any kills blocking Yes. No, kills are kills, blocks are blocks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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