Just wanted to ask a few questions and point out a few things.
1) Do the baddies have BTSC?
2) Can the baddies kill each night?
3) Can Bowser recruit every night? Or just once successfully?
It says that there are 12 people: 3 baddies 6 innocents 1 independent 2 unsided
However the unsided roles are pretty much just one more innocent and one more baddie. Making it 4 baddies, 7 innocents, and 1 Indy to start.
And then again, because Waluigi can spy each night PLUS Bowser can recruit someone (for the sake of this explanation, I will assume that he can only recruit once) the recruitment will be a 100% success on the second night.
So the setup essentially makes it so that the game starts up as 4b/7i/1, but then after the N1 kill and spy it's 4b/6i/1. Assuming BEST case scenario for the innocents, a baddie is lynched on D1, making it 3b/6i/1. Then on night two there is a perfect recruitment PLUS a kill. Making it 5b/4i/1. So in the best case scenario for what the innocents can to (leaving out Mario killing blindly [though he could kill a baddie or a goodie so it's a wash], and Luigi getting lucky with a save [though the odds are against him so that's a wash], and DK killing [though DK would have two nights at nearly a 50/50 shot to kill one baddie and one innocent, so it's actually a wash also]. So none of those three things should even be taken into account) the baddies have a majority by Day 2 and win the game flat out without the innocents ever standing a chance.