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flamebirde

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Everything posted by flamebirde

  1. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    I've been wondering about the apples too, actually.
  2. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    If I did the math right, we've got a 36% chance of winning this one. There's a 60% chance that the US wasn't one of the targets (4/5*3/4=3/5) and a 60% chance that UK wasn't one, and for us to win both must not be a target. .6*.6 gives us .36... Well, not much we can do about it now. At least I've got my vote for today, so the lynch is guaranteed, even with the ODTG vote manip. Silver linings.
  3. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    The worst part is that there's a chance we just hand Thalia the win by lynching China today: if at least one of the two dead people were one of her wincons, (that is either UK or US), and we lynch China, then she could easily RID kill the last target. Unfortunately, I'm not sure we have another option. It's a gamble, but...
  4. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Thalia, the jig is up. You aren't claiming because there's no roles left to claim. @maurice_2.0 answered that question in my post above; it got merged in.
  5. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Well, I've got to sleep now. I'll try to check in the morning, but I might not be able to- I've got commitments up until at least one tomorrow afternoon (I live on the West Coast), so I can't answer any questions. Good night, and good luck.
  6. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Well, Mo must be China, and Thalia must be Sweden. That is to say- You and Molly are more or less clear in my book, and probably in yours too, so it comes down to a three versus 1 vote best case scenario. We outvote and kill China, then tonight I save no one, ensuring the next day we have at least a two versus 1 vote (if someone gets RID killed). On the other hand, if the scenario is 2v1v1 with Molly as China and me as Sweden (as I think it's quite clear Maurice and I aren't on the same team), then if you both vote for one and China and Sweden vote together, then the game is incredibly, incredibly iffy- after your potential extra vote is factored and China's ODTG action is too, AND If Sweden RID kills a goodie, this means that it'll be 1v1v1, where the goodies lose this lynch, and Thalia (in this scenario, she would have to be Germany, since MUrice would be US, Plas would be Russia, and the other two roles are covered between Bonanova being Australia and Mike being the U.K.) would save herself. then, China would to kill Sweden (since obviously Thalia would be protected), and Sweden can't trap the night after RID killing, so it would be Thalia versus China in the final lynch, with a coin flip for a tie and a China win. Not a good scenario. but I know, since I am Germany, we can and should win this game. Are we told the player's role if that person is RID killed? Can Australia use their vote powers today? Who, then, is Germany? It's not you, it can't be Bonanova, and it couldn't be me in this scenario. It would have to be either Thalia or Molly, and if Molly was Germany, there would be no reason to lie nor to take a huge leap claiming Russia and supporting Bon. Therefore, if I am Sweden, Thalia must be Germany.
  7. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    What does POE mean? And to refute your point- if Molly lied, then Molly is either Sweden or China, Plas was Russia, you are the US, and Bonanova is Australia. I guess it comes down to this- I can't be China. Therefore, if I'm not a goodie, I must be Sweden, and therefore Molly must be China, and I trapped Thalia, who then must be Germany. But since we all seem to agree that Thalia must be bad, this can't be the case. Therefore, I can't be Sweden.
  8. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Alright. One of us four must be Australia- either me, Bonanova, Molly, or Maurice. Nobody claimed to be Australia except Bonanova, and no one has counterclaimed him, which means that Bonanova more or less must be Australia. Since I know that I'm Germany, Bonanova's Australia, Mike was the U.K., and Plasmid was a goodie, that means that only one of [Thalia, Molly, Maurice] is innocent, and Molly supported Bonanova before he was publically outed, so I trust him more than anyone else on that shortlist. Therefore, since Thalia is trapped (probably trapped herself), Maurice is the logical target. once again- if I were Sweden, why wouldn't I trap myself?
  9. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Well, that's hilarious. I targeted Bonanova N1 for a save, so there you go. But you can't be U.S, for one simple reason- Plasmid had to be U.S. If Molly is Russia, I'm Germany, Bonanova's Australia, and Mike was the U.K., and Plasmid had to be a goodie, then Plasmid must be the U.S. No two ways about it. If I were Sweden, I would have trapped myself to ensure myself safety from the lynch. Bonanova's probably telling the truth, then, about the D1 lynch- if he never changed his vote, then he also wouldn't have had time to use the vote manip. Notably, none of us has been RID'd yet, so either Sweden is playing coy, or Thalia (the only one who has yet to contribute a claim) is keeping to the shadows. Logically, we know Thalia isn't Australia (because I was saved while she was trapped),Plasmid wasn't Australia (Australia acted last night and Plasmid's dead) and we know Mike was the U.K. There are four candidates for Australia, then- Maurice, Molly, Bonanova, and me. Molly and I both claimed a different role. Therefore, either Maurice is Australia or Bonanova is. And Maurice claims to be the U.S., not Australia. therefore, Bonanova MUST be Australia. If Bonanova is Australia, and Molly vouched for him, then either Molly took a huge leap of faith or he's confirmed as Russia. Which leaves two options for my role- either I'm Germany, or I'm Sweden. If I was Sweden, I would have trapped myself for sure. So if Molly's Russia, I'm Germany, Bonanova's Australia, Mike was the U.K., and Plasmid was a goodie, then Plasmid must be the US, which means Maurice is lying.
  10. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    And you? If you don't claim, then I'll assume you're claiming Australia, as you can't be US or UK, and Molly's claimed Russia. (but really, we all know it's essentially an admission of guilt...) What about you, Bonanova? claim now or forever hold your peace. Two people have claimed already, and there's only one Sweden, so... Yes, well, unless I targeted myself for the NK, I'm not China.
  11. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Fair. I'll claim if you do. in fact, screw it. I'm Germany. If we all claim now, then goodies win, period - one RID kill plus the lynch puts us at 2v1 going into the night, and after I save then we win the lynch.
  12. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Alright, Maurice. Claim a role. Molly's done it already (assuming he didn't lie), so the RID kill doesn't matter anymore.
  13. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Host: araver 1. Thalia - quarantined by Sweden 2. bonanova 3. Molly Mae - voting for Maurice 4. Flamebirde - voting for Maurice 5. maurice - voting for bonanova 6. MikeD - Lynched D1 as United Kingdom 7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China For now, I'll go along with it. Share everything now so if you get RID killed we have some info. See, if Molly is telling the truth, then we lynch Maurice on his advice (3v1) and then Thalia dies next cycle (2v1 even in the worst case scenario). Can ODTG actions be used if the player is quarantined? C'mon man, quickly! If you get RIDed, then we're almost back to square one, and China could potentially remove a vote to tie the lynch!
  14. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Oh, crap. Counterclaims, anyone?
  15. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Host: araver 1. Thalia - quarantined by Sweden 2. bonanova 3. Molly Mae - voting for Maurice 4. Flamebirde - voting for Molly Mae 5. maurice - voting for bonanova 6. MikeD - Lynched D1 as United Kingdom 7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China See, I'm thinking Maurice is Australia, which would explain why there was no vote manip D1 but was able to save me N2. Because of that, I'm willing to trust him, which leaves my other options between Molly and Bonanova. Also, now China knows my identity, so things are getting really iffy. For now, I'll give Bonanova the benefit of the doubt, but Molly... @Molly Mae Why are Thalia and Maurice targets?
  16. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Can Thalia be RID killed if she is trapped?
  17. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Australia lives! And so do I... but then Thalia is the U.S. or Plasmid was. Either say, this was more or less the best outcome. So we know who Maurice is, so he's cleared (I think). Thalia is neither the U.K., nor Australia...
  18. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    dropped an "unless" in there. Oops. I guess it makes sense that we shouldn't save bonanova, then... so the save should go somewhere else.
  19. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Right. I guess U.S. goes for bonanova. Germany then should try to save him, Germany is dead. Thalia isn't in the clear (nor is anyone, really...) but bonanova had a good chunk of time to change his vote (around sixteen hours), and he didn't. That's suspect to say the least. So, If we're agreed - Bonanova is both targeted for U.S. kill and then saved (depending on the availability of Germany). Either no kill happens, or the kill goes through and Bonanova dies (but if we're honest, we'll probably lynch him D2 if he survives... so maybe Germany is better off saving someone else). If someone is targeted for a kill by both China and the U.S., will a save still keep that person alive? And if it doesn't (i.e. save only cancels out one kill), are we told that one kill failed and one kill succeeded? Of course. For now, though, you seem trustworthy enough. A fatal mistake in mafia, but you have to trust someone. And a word of caution to China: you can't ally with Sweden. If you do, then Sweden just RID kills you for a victory (or even traps himself so he can't even be lynched or killed), so if it comes down to a 1v1v1, it'll be (strangely enough) goodies and baddies versus the indy.
  20. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    So, I guess either Plasmid or Maurice was Australia. Either way, bonanova is target number one for lynch or U.S. Kill...
  21. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    I guess the other flaw in my plan is that if Thalia is U.S. then the strat won't work... I guess we'll have to abandon that train of thought. By the way, Thalia, I would have suggested other methods (i.e. all odds, all evens, primes, backwards...) but then U.S. might have gotten confused. Else, Plasmid could be U.S. and the whole discussion is moot.
  22. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Players: 1. Thalia - abstains from voting 2. bonanova - voting for MikeD 3. Molly Mae - abstains from voting 4. Flamebirde - abstains from voting 5. maurice - quarantined by Sweden 6. MikeD 7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China Right, so if bonanova forgets/doesn't change his vote, then Australia needs to do the vote manip. Edited because it duplicated and then merged my two posts. Can Germany self-target?
  23. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Germany didn't target Plasmid, and the block didn't target Sweden. Russia, make of that what you will. In terms of strategy, if Australia is still alive, s/he should save at least one vote manip power down to the end, so if it ends up as a 1v1 the vote manip will win the Goodies the lynch (or at least tie it if China still has the ODTG vote removal). It may also be good for the U.S. to pick their kills in an obvious way if they don't have a good target (something like killing Thalia (#1 on the roster), then bonanova (#2 on the roster), and so on), so Germany can reliably save the target. Of course, this is also a bad strategy since it tips China off quite a bit, and also it wastes the save, but it might be worth it simply so we don't have a loose cannon. Beyond that, Germany is the least valuable player on the team in the end game, since if it comes down to a 1v1 then the 50% chance to not have a vote could make the game a loss instead of a tie. In addition, plasmid is confirmed to be a goodie, since the Swede acted and China killed him, which means the game is now a 4v1v1... If after the lynch today we get a goodie, then it's 3v1v1 going into the night. If the baddie kills another goodie (75% chance) and U.S. kills a goodie (50% chance), then it's 2v1v1 going into D2. I'm not fond of those odds. Players: 1. Thalia - voting for bonanova 2. bonanova 3. Molly Mae - voting for Thalia 4. Flamebirde - voting for bonanova 5. maurice - quarantined by Sweden 6. MikeD 7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China For now, Thalia's satisfied me. Bonanova? And a few questions: Will Russia be told if the target didn't act or had a day action? Can Russia use their ODTG spy a dead player?
  24. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Oops, duplicated the post.
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