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flamebirde

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Everything posted by flamebirde

  1. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Wouldn't have worked. As per the rules, Sweden can't get killed N1. Ack, stop making me feel bad... And I wouldn't have had a good response... Why would you have lynched me instead? Personally, I still would have gone for it; you weren't going to live past D2 at that point, so might as well take someone out with you. I guess in the end this whole "remove vote" thing didn't matter at all, but for the amount of time I agonized over it, I wish it had.
  2. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Well played, Thalia. I guess outing everything wasn't such a great idea. Well, you live and learn. Good job all! Wait, did my bluff actually work? Did Maurice remove a vote? Like, it actually has no bearing on the outcome of the game, but I still want to know.
  3. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    I've been wondering about the apples too, actually.
  4. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    If I did the math right, we've got a 36% chance of winning this one. There's a 60% chance that the US wasn't one of the targets (4/5*3/4=3/5) and a 60% chance that UK wasn't one, and for us to win both must not be a target. .6*.6 gives us .36... Well, not much we can do about it now. At least I've got my vote for today, so the lynch is guaranteed, even with the ODTG vote manip. Silver linings.
  5. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    The worst part is that there's a chance we just hand Thalia the win by lynching China today: if at least one of the two dead people were one of her wincons, (that is either UK or US), and we lynch China, then she could easily RID kill the last target. Unfortunately, I'm not sure we have another option. It's a gamble, but...
  6. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Thalia, the jig is up. You aren't claiming because there's no roles left to claim. @maurice_2.0 answered that question in my post above; it got merged in.
  7. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Well, I've got to sleep now. I'll try to check in the morning, but I might not be able to- I've got commitments up until at least one tomorrow afternoon (I live on the West Coast), so I can't answer any questions. Good night, and good luck.
  8. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Well, Mo must be China, and Thalia must be Sweden. That is to say- You and Molly are more or less clear in my book, and probably in yours too, so it comes down to a three versus 1 vote best case scenario. We outvote and kill China, then tonight I save no one, ensuring the next day we have at least a two versus 1 vote (if someone gets RID killed). On the other hand, if the scenario is 2v1v1 with Molly as China and me as Sweden (as I think it's quite clear Maurice and I aren't on the same team), then if you both vote for one and China and Sweden vote together, then the game is incredibly,
  9. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    What does POE mean? And to refute your point- if Molly lied, then Molly is either Sweden or China, Plas was Russia, you are the US, and Bonanova is Australia. I guess it comes down to this- I can't be China. Therefore, if I'm not a goodie, I must be Sweden, and therefore Molly must be China, and I trapped Thalia, who then must be Germany. But since we all seem to agree that Thalia must be bad, this can't be the case. Therefore, I can't be Sweden.
  10. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Alright. One of us four must be Australia- either me, Bonanova, Molly, or Maurice. Nobody claimed to be Australia except Bonanova, and no one has counterclaimed him, which means that Bonanova more or less must be Australia. Since I know that I'm Germany, Bonanova's Australia, Mike was the U.K., and Plasmid was a goodie, that means that only one of [Thalia, Molly, Maurice] is innocent, and Molly supported Bonanova before he was publically outed, so I trust him more than anyone else on that shortlist. Therefore, since Thalia is trapped (probably trapped herself), Maurice is the logical target.
  11. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Well, that's hilarious. I targeted Bonanova N1 for a save, so there you go. But you can't be U.S, for one simple reason- Plasmid had to be U.S. If Molly is Russia, I'm Germany, Bonanova's Australia, and Mike was the U.K., and Plasmid had to be a goodie, then Plasmid must be the U.S. No two ways about it. If I were Sweden, I would have trapped myself to ensure myself safety from the lynch. Bonanova's probably telling the truth, then, about the D1 lynch- if he never changed his vote, then he also wouldn't have had time to use the vote manip. Notably, none of us has been RID'd yet, s
  12. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    And you? If you don't claim, then I'll assume you're claiming Australia, as you can't be US or UK, and Molly's claimed Russia. (but really, we all know it's essentially an admission of guilt...) What about you, Bonanova? claim now or forever hold your peace. Two people have claimed already, and there's only one Sweden, so... Yes, well, unless I targeted myself for the NK, I'm not China.
  13. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Fair. I'll claim if you do. in fact, screw it. I'm Germany. If we all claim now, then goodies win, period - one RID kill plus the lynch puts us at 2v1 going into the night, and after I save then we win the lynch.
  14. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Alright, Maurice. Claim a role. Molly's done it already (assuming he didn't lie), so the RID kill doesn't matter anymore.
  15. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Host: araver 1. Thalia - quarantined by Sweden 2. bonanova 3. Molly Mae - voting for Maurice 4. Flamebirde - voting for Maurice 5. maurice - voting for bonanova 6. MikeD - Lynched D1 as United Kingdom 7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China For now, I'll go along with it. Share everything now so if you get RID killed we have some info. See, if Molly is telling the truth, then we lynch Maurice on his advice (3v1) and then Thalia dies next cycle (2v1 even in the worst case scenario). Can ODTG actions be used if the player is quarantined? C'mon man, quickly! If you
  16. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Oh, crap. Counterclaims, anyone?
  17. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Host: araver 1. Thalia - quarantined by Sweden 2. bonanova 3. Molly Mae - voting for Maurice 4. Flamebirde - voting for Molly Mae 5. maurice - voting for bonanova 6. MikeD - Lynched D1 as United Kingdom 7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China See, I'm thinking Maurice is Australia, which would explain why there was no vote manip D1 but was able to save me N2. Because of that, I'm willing to trust him, which leaves my other options between Molly and Bonanova. Also, now China knows my identity, so things are getting really iffy. For now, I'll give Bonanova the benefit of the do
  18. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Can Thalia be RID killed if she is trapped?
  19. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Australia lives! And so do I... but then Thalia is the U.S. or Plasmid was. Either say, this was more or less the best outcome. So we know who Maurice is, so he's cleared (I think). Thalia is neither the U.K., nor Australia...
  20. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    dropped an "unless" in there. Oops. I guess it makes sense that we shouldn't save bonanova, then... so the save should go somewhere else.
  21. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    Right. I guess U.S. goes for bonanova. Germany then should try to save him, Germany is dead. Thalia isn't in the clear (nor is anyone, really...) but bonanova had a good chunk of time to change his vote (around sixteen hours), and he didn't. That's suspect to say the least. So, If we're agreed - Bonanova is both targeted for U.S. kill and then saved (depending on the availability of Germany). Either no kill happens, or the kill goes through and Bonanova dies (but if we're honest, we'll probably lynch him D2 if he survives... so maybe Germany is better off saving someone else).
  22. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    So, I guess either Plasmid or Maurice was Australia. Either way, bonanova is target number one for lynch or U.S. Kill...
  23. flamebirde

    UN Mafia III

    I guess the other flaw in my plan is that if Thalia is U.S. then the strat won't work... I guess we'll have to abandon that train of thought. By the way, Thalia, I would have suggested other methods (i.e. all odds, all evens, primes, backwards...) but then U.S. might have gotten confused. Else, Plasmid could be U.S. and the whole discussion is moot.
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