araver

@plasmid - that's a great approach to the current situation (reminds me of curr3nt's ). I only read it once, not enough to actually document all holes in the 4 plans. But writing a couple of things which may affect those plans since insomnia kept me this far - 6am and counting and then I'll go to sleep: 1) One of the assumptions you make early on is that neither the Boss and Mr Brown are bad guys (undercover cops or whatever that's called in this mafia) and there's a lot drawn from that, including the premise that undercovers that can act won't act unless forced to. I think it's a stretch. Both the premise and the implication. The whole distribution of minority abilities vs majority abilities and assuming some are surely part of the uninformed majority is a can of worms... this is subject to a little host-WiFoM, e.g would the host pick a killer as a baddie, wouldn't that be unbalanced? would the host pick the Boss as an baddie, wouldn't that be unbalanced? If it's random, it's random, which means any plan has to have contingency plans even if a given role is part of the minority, otherwise a lot can fall through these cracks. 2) The second thing missed is that your plans require all players to agree on something someone claims and even if they do coordinate and it works as it should on paper - i.e. assuming best-play from their part, this still has to resort to wifom in order to avoid the (at least double- if not all-out-) exposure the plans itself create. You risk running out of key roles and you can't have Mr. White saving everyone at the same time. 3) Timing - Look at the timeline for a sec, try to simulate the game - how fast can the minority side achieve it's win? Assuming the luckiest streak for the minority: 2vs6, one Nk 2vs5, one lynch 2vs4 one nk 2vs 3, one lynch 2vs2. That would be end of D2. Now, your plans should prevent that from happening without running "out of ammo". When you say "lynch those two", you'd be better be in a situation where you still hold majority at least for the first one and be very sure about that first lynch. And that means protecting the vote manipulation if he's part of the majority (The Boss) since that ability is key to winning those lynches. If the special conversion of Mr.White is taken into account, the absolute luckiest streak for the minority is: 2vs6 one-conversion-nk 3vs5, one-lynch 3vs4, one nk 3vs3. That's N2. And by outing information, you might be also opening up the fast lane for Mr.White to win with the minority. It has been done before. Whenever a betrayer or faction choosing felt the balance tipping would lead to a sure or good odds of winning. This is a part of Mafia. 4) (and perhaps the most important bit left out) This is a game played by people. Much more often than not (sadly), people will not react as logical as you'd expect, nor read or trust or follow plans (even much simpler ones which can be explained in less than two lines). That's not something that should stop you from laying out plans. But I did feel that you need the forewarning, so that you won't feel disappointed with the "human" side of Mafia - people don't always pay attention, don't always trust (or bother with) other people's logic, and don't always play an optimal solution.

I know it's not Reservoir Dogs, but I'm still hearing the music (talking about "Love Grows Where My Rosemary Goes") ...

Host: Yuli and Molly Mae 1. plasmid 2. 3. 4. 'Cat'astrophe 5. KlueMaster 6. maurice 7. Auramyna 8. Araver Follow the trail of bodies they said. Should be interesting. Especially since it's hosted by someone with multiple personalities (J/K, no mod-kill offense).

And btw (not trying to over-post here, but I can't edit my post above, and I spent a lot of time eating popcorn in the ghost thread ), there's one thing I found harder to do when you're a baddie - more of a pitfall - and that's probably what started the "bandwagoning tell" in the first place. Say it's past mid-day 1, and you arrive and see a lot of discussion and one player with a couple more votes on him or a tie (involving you or not). If you're a goodie, you: - either know better (via night-information) and try to imply so with your vote directing the lynch somewhere. - don't know, assess the situation and decide to believe A or B or C in the group and stick your vote somewhere. What you can't really do as a goodie is not vote or vote using random.org and arrive on top of the already existing bandwagon. That's just an option telling "I have no idea who X is, but I'm lynching him anyway, and I can't be held accountable if he flips goodie cause random.org told me to". A goodie with unknown teammates would not go to that option late in the day. Telling people "I don't know, I choose to believe X for now so I'll vote for Y", and that you might reconsider depending on what Y happens to say or be - this is the most likely scenario a goodie arrives at: I don't know better, but I have to choose a side, otherwise I let the informed ones making a choice for me. Bandwagoning in itself is not bad. Motives behind bandwagoning, as well as the existence of other more likely options before resorting to bandwagon, that's where the pitfall lies. One has to mimic a reaction as he/she would with limited information and exposed only to the what the game thread has already shown. That's tricky to pull. Not easy to tell either - it can lead to false positives very easily. But it can be used to mark people as active-suspicious - why wouldn't they say something at a certain time, etc as opposed to passive-suspicious - why isn't he saying something / why isn't he/she voting, etc. I find active-suspicious more telling of sitting upon information and with a less rate of false-positives than passive-suspicious.

Yeah, it was an Igor-like "Yes Master". But it made my day cause the most annoying thing for the baddies in D2 would be 1 of them killed and the two goodies who were at the other's throat the day before voting together. However good your tempo is as an informed minority scheming in shadows, you kinda skip a beat there when you see forces coagulating in the open. It's like a breeze trumpeting the incoming storm, which will hit you if you don't find some counter-attack fast. Or at least, in my insanity, that was what I was thinking in the ghost thread and it made me chuckle and feel very optimistic all of a sudden.

@Nana - thanks. And wow. That was a lot of bouncing. The lucky bounce towards Slick N1 that I didn't know of ... well, I'm still glad I didn't try to NK that night. @Curr3nt About trust: Basically what Klue says. And what is written below. Besides, there's another general thing: You two (Curr3nt and Klue) reminded me of Izzy/Phaze, goodies going aggressively to each other throats. 99% of the D1 cases such as this, the pair is formed from goodies with baddie lying deep in shadow, happy to throw anyone under the bus. Or an Indy with a get lynched wincon (not the case here). Anyway, you both gave away a lot during the day, so no one should have bandwagoned on either of you actually *sigh* My take: When you see people very active D1, let them live through D1, spy on them, whatever, but don't lynch them right away. Information is gained through time. And a mislynch D1 is very very likely. Oh, and curr ... most players may mistake mild passive-aggressive posts with baddy-ness, as evidenced by the two NKs and other actions on you. Not telling you to change your style or anything, just that you need to be prepared to accept a lot of activity directed at you, and to be prepared to incorporate it in your play-style. I don't know if you played with Phaze - (he's very experienced now, controlling his wifom to specific targets, he chooses his battles) - but he met with similar resistance from other players - a lot of actions (including goodie kills) directed at him, dying early in Mafias, etc. And there's always the question (I got into heated debates with him over this) if these gambits - accepting a lot of incoming actions - are worthwhile in all situations. e.g. if your team's situation looks desperate - such a tactic is high risk, high gain. But if the situation is uncertain/maybe balanced or even good for your team - then such a tactic remains mostly high risk for very little gain. Just some bits to ponder, not trying to step on your toes or anything For example I enjoyed your "Imma target Aaryan" gambit, but it could have easily left you framed for lynch in D2 if e.g. Aaryan was not an Indy, and if anyone took Aaryan out. You had very little to defend with in case of a frame. And anycase, the goodie killer tried to target you after D2, despite the fact that Aaryan was lynched as an Indy. Because in his eyes, you could still have been a baddie pulling a "Let's throw the Indy under the bus lynch". *shrug* @KlueMaster: That's what I got from you, and even though that claim didn't narrow your role to 1, it was a very good directed hint for D1, which you could have easily avoided if you had been a baddie. So, I counted you as a goodie for answering a question which you could have easily dodged. I had no way of knowing if the answer was sincere, but choosing to give the more narrowing answer is a gambit most baddies don't afford D1. Especially not after a NK was saved. Also I had to tell you can't narrow me, because otherwise you would have gotten the wrong impression that I either spied on you or was your pair (one that couldn't act N1). And I couldn't tell you I chose to not act since that would have narrowed me too much. I'm glad you chose not to pursue that line of thought. Agreed about Slick, I had some doubts - but I saw his hint as Flour too - so I didn't pedal so much on it at the end of D1, left the lynch for Ginger Snaps to solve. But Slick ruined that after D1 ended by claiming he had an action when no one had died At the time I had no idea if he was an Indy or a Baddie, but decided to stay away from him at night and proceed with EDM. Meanwhile EDM's vote was way off and was worth investigating (reflected or not). I didn't think I'd get killed so easily *shrug* @Curr3nt Bouncing the kill around on N2 would actually have been a good opportunity. We had 2 good ones: no NK N1 + no lynch D1, we could have afforded a casualty N2 if the kill would have bounced, and we'd have EDM to lynch D2 to unlock the Indies. At least that's what I thought as worst-case. Also, loosely connected to this, you (still) drawing attention to yourself D1 is what convinced me you couldn't be a baddie. See, if I were a baddie, after the N1 kill goes off, I'd stay in shadow for as long as possible. You kinda went "interrogating goodie-like" which is very risky if you're a baddie. Till about mid-day D1, I still thought at most you might be a baddie trying to sell an Indy who got reflected N1, but that was slim. Then tried to wave you off KM. Repeatedly. So, you kinda made my day in the ghost thread when you started following KM's vote around. That "Yes, Master" was priceless.

Thank you for hosting Nana And congrats to all playing but most of all to fellow goodies for winning I'm still very curious to see who kristmark tried to kill N3 and N4. And also curious about more of the actions, all I know is that indeed smoth was the original target of both the NK and the save. And just for the record, curr, when I replaced MissKitten, there was already a kill coming your way (that I canceled ). A very interesting Indy WinCon. But not sure how to judge the balance on this one to be honest. On paper, with full-night immunity till one is lynched and no targets shown in the night-post, the Indies should have cover for a while. But in practice, without intervening directly on the game, I'm not sure how they can achieve their WinCon without a streak of luck. All the reflection on Indies + three blocks in the game make for a lot of possible scenarios after N2/D2: - If the baddies lose ground early (NKs saved, goodie counter-kills, day lynches), then the Indy have little in the way of re-balancing the game - they would need an active ability IMHO - self-vote manipulations, and/or a block or redirect to gently interfere with nights? - If the goodies lose ground early, then the Indy have more in the way of re-balancing by lynching baddies, but they still don't control the night, so the baddies may still win it, especially if the baddies try throwing the Indies under the bus during the day (Indies with secret wincon are easy to throw under the bus IMHO). So again, maybe a bit of vote-manip and/or something like ODTG redirect the NK?

Your persistence with talking about your hints (and others) is what I mean by unnecessary outing. Actually, your persistence with everything. There comes a time when you take your chances and zipit for a while. If the others got the message, it's fine. If not, their fault, your tough luck. Sticking it into their eyes will stick it into everyone else's eyes, guaranteeing that everyone knows. Hence, unnecessary outing. Yeah, you should have been a man and taken the lynch and let Flour carry on with your ability. But hey, that's just my opinion, feel free to not like it *shrug* Also, there's a difference between getting it and moving a vote right away. There's a little WIFOM window there, in the timing of voting. I never miss it. And never play consistently. So. I forgot what my point was. Ah, right. This paragraph was just WIFOM.

If trade secrets help at this moment, please spill. If it's not really helping, then I'll be fine with a post game recap. Just hold the dragon to his promise, will ya? I'll save you a spot at the ghost tavern. @curr and Klue - btw, did I mention keeping the outing to a minimum? I think I did. Or was it a parallel universe? Meh, I kinda feel sorry for D2 already with you two in the picture.

Not defending him, and I was around for his first game, still have bruises from that one to remember it well. Just that if you were talking about that particular post, I've put the same idea on the table, and it was about something else IMO. I've got no idea if his post was a jest or WIFOM. Mine was genuine - it could be done and it would benefit both parties. Some things can cause WIFOM, some things (such as common incentives) are supposed to be explained clearly, so that there's not missed by anyone. Meh. I don't think it is that, in fact the whole idea of talking about Baddies leading a lynch against an Indy IF they're NK got reflected was based on silently doing so. No point in doing that by talking too much about it, right? But keep throwing things like that, I actually love growing a nice not-too-small but not-too-big pool of semi-enemies. Keeps me alive longer in the game

Hosts: Baker Nana & Baker Aura 1. kristmark1 - voting for Slick 2. EDM - voting for KlueMaster 3. curr3nt - voting for KlueMaster 4. tolecnal - voting for KlueMaster 5. Slick 6. Akriti - voting for curr3nt 7. Shad - voting for KlueMaster 8. maurice - voting for Slick 9. LJ - voting for Araver 10. KlueMaster - voting for curr3nt 11. smoth333 - voting for Slick 12. Araver - voting for Slick 13. Aaryan - voting for curr3nt 14. Zweefer - voting for maurice Shifting my vote somewhere else. No high expectations, but better than where it sat previously since curr3nt responded. @cur - then I fear we're in a midday 1 misunderstanding. I took maurice's post to mean the same as I meant with my post it is perhaps the only moment when goodies and baddies can try to take an Indy out together ... assuming that the baddies had their NK bounced off (which is still most likely).

@Klue - where exactly did curr propose a baddie-indy alliance? I think I missed this (or dismissed it and forgot) @Mo - not sure EDM's a baddie. The temptation to bandwagon when your neck is not on the line is too much. Helps with reaching a quick decision *shrug* I keep trying to understand why we keep having bandwagons instead of spread votes. And keep failing. It kinda feels ... weird. Like most of those casting a vote are just happy to cast one and glad their head is not on the line.

Fixing Mo's vote and re-adding the hosts: Hosts: Baker Nana & Baker Aura 1. kristmark1 - voting for Slick 2. EDM - voting for KlueMaster 3. curr3nt - voting for KlueMaster 4. tolecnal - voting for KlueMaster 5. Slick 6. Akriti - voting for Maurice 7. Shad - voting for KlueMaster 8. maurice - voting for Slick (see) 9. LJ - voting for Araver 10. KlueMaster - voting for curr3nt 11. smoth333 - voting for Slick 12. Araver - voting for curr3nt 13. Aaryan - voting for curr3nt 14. Zweefer - voting for maurice

Right, I repainted them in my offline document. Makes my brain struggle less with colors and more with important stuff. Green as in Indy. Portrayed as purple in this game. I had a green impression since I arrived/read the thread, a sort of persistence from you, like you wanted to be the target of a night kill *shrug* call it what you want. And you still haven't blown that impression away completely, especially since you seem to be looking for a claim fight. So, thing is, I can't change my impression unless I pressure you with a vote and see if you fear lynching or again, feel invincible. *shrug* Ah, I patiently await to see what this path produces. I will take a side-quest and avoid the dragon for a while. Ring me if there's any trouble and you need a sword

OK, scratch that, need to preview more often. I don't have a bad vibe from curr either, but that still leaves green *shrug* So, what theory?

@kristmark - I wasn't worried, I was trying to talk about it. @curr3nt - I got the green innuendo of your vote. But no one would say yes to the question implied, so not sure what you expect other than get into a head-to-head fight with KM about it *shrug* @tolecnal - Midday ties are one thing, but end-day ties on D1 are only sought if all else fails. While the Baddies don't have a vote manip, the Indies might as well have one, and the goodie vote manip has no night-information available. So, hard to get a Baddie right, hard to get an Indy right, hard to be sure two Goodies are tied. Better not to rely on the no-lynch option much. @kris and smoth - I wouldn't wake the dragon with a vote, been bit too many times. @maurice - care to throw something in?

They will get active as the day progresses, it's 9AM EDT, a long way to 11 PM EDT. So far, the ones in GMT + something have been more active, that's the usual beginning of Mafia days Well, if you have reasons and logic, but don't speak about them: - no one gets any info - I don't have anything to answer to push your vote away which is slightly unfair (to me) since I would like both some info and to push your vote away.

Good, we're getting somewhere. Though there is a part of me that doesn't think you can actually know my role just yet. Let's hear what curr3nt has to say today (he did not elaborate his first vote) So, here I am moving my vote: 1. kristmark1 - voting for Araver 2. EDM 3. curr3nt - voting for KlueMaster 4. tolecnal 5. Slick 6. Akriti - voting for Maurice 7. Shad - voting for KlueMaster 8. maurice - voting for LJ 9. LJ - voting for Araver 10. KlueMaster - voting for curr3nt 11. smoth333 12. Araver - voting for curr3nt 13. Aaryan - voting for maurice 14. Zweefer

I told you And you missed my question that came with my vote. I did not add my vote for pressure - just for the question attached to it, and I promised a response in return for you moving your vote away from me. Last line in my post is addressed to you: And you're doing that by voting another to tie it up? Wouldn't it be better to just say that with your vote, instead of calling it random?? This is a long day that just got started. Days are used to gain info. Not to "save" people you "think" are goodies. At least not until the day almost ends AND only if you really think not "think" so.

When there are already 2 votes on a person, "kinda random" is not enough. If you want me to answer a question, you have to be specific. Otherwise, restate your intentions. I did not see those links. I assumed external links are out of the context of the game.

And one other note: Is there any English idiom I am unfamiliar with that says playing with their eyebrows absolutely means not acting? 'Cause otherwise, they could still have acted, using a secret (non-kill) ability that we know nothing about. Otherwise, setting aside the fact that both of them are alive since no one died, I see absolutely no reason to put them in the post otherwise *shrug*

Hosts: Baker Nana & Baker Aura 1. kristmark1 2. EDM 3. curr3nt - voting for KlueMaster 4. tolecnal 5. Slick 6. Akriti - voting for Maurice 7. Shad - voting for KlueMaster 8. maurice - voting for LJ 9. LJ - voting for Araver 10. KlueMaster - voting for Araver 11. smoth333 12. Araver - voting for KlueMaster 13. Aaryan 14. Zweefer I don't really have any question addressed by either Klue or LJ, what am I supposed to talk about? And I can't ask you not to lynch me because I can be of benefit to my team, because, with no death N1, it does not really matter - lynching me would ensure it gets inherited. However, I'd like to be the one playing the ability (and not Flour). Call it a personal preference. Another personal opinion after reading the mechanics of this game, it would be better to lynch an Easter Egg D1, to get RID of the reflective part at night. While the message is for my teammates, I think it provides a common incentive for all non-Easter Eggs. And another tricky idea. While the EE are covered in two layers of secrets(ability, wincon), lynching them should be possible and RID-based abilities/wincon are very plausible. So, if we could keep the outing to a minimum, that would be great. To clarify, a minimum on D1 would be zero Following curr for now, but subject to change if anyone has a better-than-random idea. And for KM: ask me one and I'll ask you one. Or better: if you tell me if you acted N1, I will tell you the same information about me.

You know, that actually is quite logical. (Technically ginger is #FE8E19, but that's not the point.) However, I'm not Hulk and I didn't snap, so I'm fairly sure we'll get to discuss the curr3nt news during D1. OK, not sure, just a tiny bit "hunchy". Anyways, off to sleep, see you in the morning.

Araver Snaps. *shrug* No idea why I'm trying to help you get a nickname for me. And I'm as far from ginger as possible (and no, that's not a hint, I am referring to the color). Was this directed at poor old me? I am usually the one framed for N1 goodie kills, not the one who pushes the trigger.

Lot to read, lots to read. Anyone has a suggestion where to start from? (just kidding, Imma read it all anyway).