Westworld Mafia

[gavinksong]

1 hour ago, nana77 said:

Your analysis left out the scenario in which you are baddie.

It is also not clear how my being nk would clear Plas or implicate Flame. It would clear Bona though if he survived. And would be 3vs1. Every scenario that does not end tonight is 3 vs 1. 2 vs 1 requires 2 goodie deaths and that can not happen with the plan as given. I also do not see how anything blows Plas cover.

Bona can be cleared by surviving. I can be cleared by being spied. Flame can be cleared by successful save of nk. Gavin and Plas can not be cleared (other than by baddie being killed and game ending).

Odds are Bona or me die tonight and the three others will be the suspects.

Indeed, I did leave that part out. Like I said, I was operating under the assumption that I was not the baddie.

If plasmid claimed that he had been blocked and NK'd you, it would clear bona and obviously you since you'd be dead. That just leaves me and Flamebirde as the other two suspects, and again, I was operating under the assumption that I was not the baddie. If plasmid NK'd Flamebirde instead, he would have to claim he was blocked, clearing bona, while I would clear you, leaving only me and plasmid as suspects. And again, if you operate under the assumption that I am not the baddie, then plasmid's cover is blown.

And yes, if bona blocks plasmid, then every time I wrote 2 v 1 for D2 in my original analysis should instead be read as 3 v 1. Also, the case of "Flamebirde baddie / Nana NK" would result in an identical scenario to the one above where "plasmid baddie / Nana NK", which is why I was saying it would implicate Flamebirde (as one of two suspects). Anyways, these are just minor updates.

It might seem strange that I formulated and shared an entire strategy based on the assumption that I wasn't the baddie. However, as it is literally the only assumption I've made in an otherwise foolproof strategy, to reject it is equivalent to saying that it is more likely for that assumption to be false than it is for an alternative strategy to fail. Intuitively, based on the fact that I am a role spy who can't be cleared without being killed, I don't think there would be another strategy that hinges on fewer assumptions (although you're welcome to try to come up with one). But even if there were, given that I claimed first without any counter-claims, I think I'm currently the least likely to be the baddie. And if I am, then I at least deserve to win for being ballsy.

Edited September 15, 2017 by gavinksong
corrected a mistake

[plasmid]

How not to mafia

Spoiler

Gavin spy Nana
plasmid kill Bonanova
Bonanova block plasmid
Flamebirde save Gavin
Nana stay put and not jeopardize vote

Results (correct me if I'm wrong)
Baddie is...
Bonanova: he dies, game over
Nana: she gets outed by Gavin and lynched (in a 3 vs 1)
Flamebride: we don't know who the baddie is in a 3 vs 1
plasmid: Bonanova is cleared (he and I can't both be baddies) but we don't know who the baddie is and we go into a 3 vs 1
Gavin: he fake-claims that Nana is baddie and gets her mislynched and we lose

 

How to mafia

Spoiler

plasmid kill Bonanova
Flamebirde kill Nana
Bonanova block Gavin (not plasmid)
Nana try to save self but might die because of 50/50 chance
Gavin spies whoever

Results
Baddie is...
Bonanova: he dies, game over
Nana: she dies, game over
Flamebirde: Bonanova dies and Nana doesn't have a Dolores kill appearing on her, so Flamebirde is confirmed baddie and goes into a 2 vs 1 and gets lynched* because the Dolores kill didn't appear
plasmid: Bonanova doesn't have a Hector kill appearing on him, so I'm confirmed baddie and we either go into a 3 vs 1 (if Nana successfully saves herself form Flamebirde) or a 2 vs 1 (if Nana dies) and I get lynched*
Gavin: Both goodie kill attempts occur and we go into a 2 vs 1 (if Nana successfully saves herself) or 1 vs 1 (if Nana dies), but you were blocked by Bonanova so you can't vote manip and it's either a goodie win (if 2 vs 1) or a tie (if 1 vs 1).

* If a known baddie goes into a 2 vs 1 lynch then yeah he can drop one vote on himself with the ODTG, but the final vote will be 1 - 1 and tie lynch rules are that everyone in the tie dies so one goodie will remain and the goodies will win.

If it goes into a final day phase with 1 goodie vs 1 baddie (without a vote manip) so they both vote each other and die in the lynch does that count as a tie?

Other than that, anyone see problems?

Is everyone OK with that plan and please confirm if you send those actions? Mine is sent.

Edited September 16, 2017 by plasmid
Edit: Nana should try to save the NK target and not herself because Clementine can't save self, but that plan will still work

[plasmid]

Correction: Nana needs to not attempt to save anyone. Since she can't save self, if she attempts to save someone else and it fails then she would end up going into a 2 vs 1 or 1 vs 1 scenario without a vote, and that could make the goodies lose.

I doubt it matters though because I'm pretty sure Nana or Bonanova is the baddie.

[araver]

52 minutes ago, plasmid said:

If it goes into a final day phase with 1 goodie vs 1 baddie (without a vote manip) so they both vote each other and die in the lynch does that count as a tie?

Yes. I would count as a tie rather than make the host win this

[nana77]

Is there time to get the new actions in?

I am suspicious of Flame for pushing the tie d1. Even though the results were nice. And I am wary of Gavin. Plas scores some goodie points for his plan. idk about Bona.

[flamebirde]

What's wrong with a d1 tie?

[bonanova]

3 hours ago, nana77 said:

Is there time to get the new actions in?

I am suspicious of Flame for pushing the tie d1. Even though the results were nice. And I am wary of Gavin. Plas scores some goodie points for his plan. idk about Bona.

I'm in. I'm changing my block now. (said the soldier willing to die for the cause.)

[gavinksong]

4 hours ago, plasmid said:

How to mafia

Fair enough. There were a few problems with your analysis of the first plan, but as far as I can tell, baddie can't win with the new plan. In fact, since I know that I'm not the baddie, I see it as a guaranteed win.

I didn't realize that the name of the acting role appears next to every kill in the NP. 

[araver]

To clarify the end of the night happens in around 4 hours 45 minutes.

[bonanova]

I'm headed to bed (US EDT). I'll read my obit when I wake up.

I hope something kind is said ...

I'm wondering ... has a player ever been BOTH of the first two kills before?  Poor Aura

[araver]

Night 2: "Latest, but not Last Update"

Dr. Ford had one more update planned and managed to skip the QA team by acting at night. As he carefully adjusted the final touches, he began smiling to himself. An old tune came into his mind and he began humming it as he changed the last lines of code and uploaded it. As soon as it was deployed to the hosts, the update permanently turned plasmid offline.

Close to midnight Hector bumped into Bonanova while making his scheduled entrance to the saloon. And since temper was never programmed into his persona, he quickly gave Bonanova a bad case of lead poisoining. Bona stumbled back into the saloon and fell on a nearby table that crumbled under him. He stared at the strange arrangement of lamps hanging far above him, trying to take a pattern in. A smile crept slowly as the pattern emerged in his mind. 

Meanwhile back on the street, Dolores mustered her courage and grabbed a pistol out of her bag. She marched slowly towards Nana who was speaking with some strangers near the bank. She didn't even give her a chance to turn around before shooting point blank.

tl;dr version:
* Hector removed Bonanova
* Dolores removed Nana
* Dr. Ford shutdown plasmid

Host: araver

1. Gavinksong
2. Flamebirde
3. Nana77 - Killed N2 by Dolores
4. plasmid - Killed N2 by Dr. Robert Ford
6. bonanova - Killed N2 by Hector
5. Aura 2.0 (phil1882) - Lynched D1 as Man in Black
7. aura - Killed N1 by Dr. Robert Ford

Goodies win! Congratulations!

Secrets in the spoiler

Spoiler

 

Roles:
1. Gavinksong - Maeve
2. Flamebirde - Dolores
3. Nana77 - Dr. Robert Ford
4. plasmid - Hector
5. Aura 2.0 (phil1882) - Man in Black
6. bonanova - Teddy
7. aura - Clementine

Actions:

Night 1: 
1. Dolores - Flamebirde - No action
2. Teddy - Bonanova - Block no one
3. Maeve - gavinksong - Inactive
4. Clementine - Aura - Save plasmid - 50% works -> plasmid is saved
5. Hector - plasmid - Kill - No action - random.org says kills on even nights.
6. Dr. Robert Ford - Nana - NK Aura
7. Man in Black - Phil - No action

Outlive: Clementine and Dolores and Dr. Ford

NP shows: 
* Dr Robert Ford "updated" Aura. 

Day 1:
6. Dr. Robert Ford - Nana - ODTG remove vote for bonanova

Result: Aura 2.0 (phil) is lynched (2 vs 1 votes)

Night 2:
1. Dolores - Flamebirde  - Kill Nana
2. Teddy - Bonanova - Block Gavinksong
3. Maeve - gavinksong - No action ???
5. Hector - plasmid - Kill Bonanova
6. Dr. Robert Ford - Nana - NK Gavinksong

NP shows:
* Hector removed Bonanova
* Dolores removed Nana
* Dr. Ford removed plasmid

 

 

[araver]

Host's summary:

Even though this game was marked by inactivity in its first phases, it was a delight in the last part.The Indy being inactive removed some of the balance in the roles, however what kept goodies on their toes was the hidden ODTG RID Kill. Once Nana removed the Indy via lynch ... the balance tilted towards the goodies. After observing the past 5-6 games of this size, I think that much of the balance in this small 5vs1vs1 setting comes from the cat-and-mouse game between the Indy and the Baddie. If one component is missing or cross-fires and the information gets out, goodies have time to formulate a plan and tilt the balance. However, this is all part of the fun of the game - actions and words have consequences.

After removing the Indy RID threat goodies openly and collaboratively proposed and corrected plans for the end-game. That was a dream ending for the host (obviously not for the non-goodies). MVP goes to plasmid for fixing the final plan as well as selecting the right night to act, but kudos to all the goodies that made the plan happen. At the time plasmid proposed it, the situation was different for the goodies, with the baddie not being taken out during the night and not blocked (and goodies couldn't have known the baddie had already spent the ODTG vote manipulation).

[flamebirde]

this was one of the situations I had wanted when I went for the tie. Sure, it let the baddie control the lynch, but if he used his vote manip there then in the endgame he would lose since I had both still hidden up my sleeve (of course, that all depended on whether or not I lived). The other option was that the tie went through and no one died, leading to more time for the goodies to figure out the game.

That was a good play by Plasmid at the end; it clearly worked out. Congrats to him and to all the goodies!

Also, rip Aura who died twice in two consecutive phases

[bonanova]

Thanks to araver for the game.

With a full (original) compliment of players the game would have unfolded very differently, even with a lucky lynch.

[gavinksong]

5 hours ago, araver said:

(and goodies couldn't have known the baddie had already spent the ODTG vote manipulation).

Actually, reading that made me realize we definitely could have known if we had just asked Flamebirde - unless he was the baddie which still would have been fine.

So actually, a lot of plans would have worked - if we had known that. Also, slowly starting to realize that, contrary to what Nana said, plasmid was always able to clear himself if bona didn't block him since Hector's role would appear next to his kill, which means my original plan could have been a lot simpler.

Anyways, it was fun! Thank you.

Man, the end of D1 was a big twist for me. I had Flamebirde pegged as Dolores, Nana as the baddie, and bona as indy - and I couldn't help but think that Aura 2.0 was definitely not indy because of the thing. So basically, I wasn't even expecting a vote manip. I'm glad it happened though, not because it gave the goodies an advantage, but just because it was kind of cool. It wouldn't be Westworld themed without a few twists. 

[nana77]

Congrats Plas and gg all.

[plasmid]

That was pretty unusual for a mafia... it's rare that at endgame the players can openly conspire to secure a win, and even rarer that everyone actually gets their act together and actually cooperates with such a plan *cough sparrowhawk cough*. Most of the time there are maybe one or two pretty cleared players but the rest comes down to how you read everyone else's play, and such open planning can usually be countered. But life is tough for baddies when the RID kill is known to be gone.

Thanks for hosting, araver.

[araver]

@gavinksong @plasmid

To clarify what I meant. Before the change / cooperation actions read like this:

Spoiler

Night 2:
1. Dolores - Flamebirde  - Kill Plasmid
2. Teddy - Bonanova - Block Plasmid
3. Maeve - gavinksong - No action ???
5. Hector - plasmid - Kill Bonanova - blocked
6. Dr. Robert Ford - Nana - NK Gavinksong

NP shows Dolores removed Plasmid and Ford removed Gavinksong.

1. Gavinksong - Killed N2 by Dr. Robert Ford
2. Flamebirde
3. Nana77 
4. plasmid - Killed N2 by Dolores
6. bonanova
5. Aura 2.0 (phil1882) - Lynched D1 as Man in Black
7. aura - Killed N1 by Dr. Robert Ford

That would have left Flame, Nana and Bonanova alive in Day 2.

Flame couldn't verify Bona's claim just by reading the NP. Granted, he would know Dolores didn't block plasmid, but he could think plasmid lied about being Hector. After all, Aura could have been Hector. When Bona blocked Plasmid, but he was killed, he could also deduce, but not be 100% sure that plasmid was Hector (what he claimed). 

I do agree goodies could have *still* won this, just saying it wasn't as clear as advertised. Because assuming goodies tell the truth and trust or cooperate fully in a Mafia game ... is a dangerous assumption to say the least 

[gavinksong]

2 hours ago, araver said:

@gavinksong @plasmid

To clarify what I meant. Before the change / cooperation actions read like this:

  Hide contents

Night 2:
1. Dolores - Flamebirde  - Kill Plasmid
2. Teddy - Bonanova - Block Plasmid
3. Maeve - gavinksong - No action ???
5. Hector - plasmid - Kill Bonanova - blocked
6. Dr. Robert Ford - Nana - NK Gavinksong

NP shows Dolores removed Plasmid and Ford removed Gavinksong.

1. Gavinksong - Killed N2 by Dr. Robert Ford
2. Flamebirde
3. Nana77 
4. plasmid - Killed N2 by Dolores
6. bonanova
5. Aura 2.0 (phil1882) - Lynched D1 as Man in Black
7. aura - Killed N1 by Dr. Robert Ford

That would have left Flame, Nana and Bonanova alive in Day 2.

Flame couldn't verify Bona's claim just by reading the NP. Granted, he would know Dolores didn't block plasmid, but he could think plasmid lied about being Hector. After all, Aura could have been Hector. When Bona blocked Plasmid, but he was killed, he could also deduce, but not be 100% sure that plasmid was Hector (what he claimed). 

I do agree goodies could have *still* won this, just saying it wasn't as clear as advertised. Because assuming goodies tell the truth and trust or cooperate fully in a Mafia game ... is a dangerous assumption to say the least 

It hurts to know that Flamebirde was not on board. 

Just in this case here, if he had saved me instead, nobody would have died. Even if Nana had chosen somebody else to kill, it would have been 3v1, and I would have called her out, and it would have been possible to lynch/kill both of us on the following days/nights (bona can block the remaining suspect N3 if flamebirde is dead).

Either way, plasmid's method was foolproof since the worst case ends in a tie. It would have been 100% foolproof if we had asked Flamebirde if he had used his vote manip in D1. It's weird how nobody thought to ask.

@araver random question: how does it appear on the NP when someone's been targeted for a kill by multiple roles?

(^i can't figure out how to change font color on mobile)

14 hours ago, flamebirde said:

this was one of the situations I had wanted when I went for the tie. Sure, it let the baddie control the lynch, but if he used his vote manip there then in the endgame he would lose since I had both still hidden up my sleeve (of course, that all depended on whether or not I lived). The other option was that the tie went through and no one died, leading to more time for the goodies to figure out the game.

That is what you said when you originally suggested it, and I'm sure everyone agreed with the logic of it (even Nana). As planned, you must have immediately known that the baddie's ODTG vote manip was gone... which is what makes it even stranger that you didn't speak up. Deeply ingrained Mafia reflexes/paranoia, I suppose?

Edited September 17, 2017 by gavinksong

[nana77]

from my pov, I could either use the manip then or wait and maybe not have another chance to use it. So I used it. I disagreed that the baddie would not use it.

[araver]

5 hours ago, gavinksong said:

@araver random question: how does it appear on the NP when someone's been targeted for a kill by multiple roles?

Both roles would appear. As in "Dolores and Hector removed X"

 

 

[flamebirde]

10 hours ago, gavinksong said:

It hurts to know that Flamebirde was not on board. 

Just in this case here, if he had saved me instead, nobody would have died. Even if Nana had chosen somebody else to kill, it would have been 3v1, and I would have called her out, and it would have been possible to lynch/kill both of us on the following days/nights (bona can block the remaining suspect N3 if flamebirde is dead).

Either way, plasmid's method was foolproof since the worst case ends in a tie. It would have been 100% foolproof if we had asked Flamebirde if he had used his vote manip in D1. It's weird how nobody thought to ask.

@araver random question: how does it appear on the NP when someone's been targeted for a kill by multiple roles?

(^i can't figure out how to change font color on mobile)

That is what you said when you originally suggested it, and I'm sure everyone agreed with the logic of it (even Nana). As planned, you must have immediately known that the baddie's ODTG vote manip was gone... which is what makes it even stranger that you didn't speak up. Deeply ingrained Mafia reflexes/paranoia, I suppose?

I didn't say anything because then I thought about the save's 50/50 to lose their vote the next day. When I went for the tie originally, I thought it would be a sure fire way to gain an advantage, but after the lynch I was left wondering about other possible vote manips.

For the record, you had me fooled -- I figured Plasmid had to be a baddie considering everyone else had claimed, but then he claimed too and I saw the logic in his plan.

I think Dolores may have been too powerful in the end. Having 2 different vote manips and a lynch save, on top of a kill and a save -- that rendered the baddie's vote manip practically useless in the endgame when roles were revealed. The "once per game" aspect of the actions never mattered because 1. I didn't use anything N1 and 2. The game was 2 nights long. The only way to neuter the role would be to block, which no sane person would do as discussed earlier (no one would use the block ability N1 for this exact reason: you might hit Dolores). But this may all be because of an inactive Indy: that was the only force opposing the goodies that could effectively counter a known Dolores (RID kill, and the block+save to a lesser extent).

[phil1882]

whoops, legitimately forgot about this topic, sorry guys.

[Upposties]

Games take up a lot of your precious time