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gavinksong

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gavinksong last won the day on April 16 2015

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About gavinksong

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  1. My thoughts exactly... except is it possible with four points?
  2. It hurts to know that Flamebirde was not on board. Just in this case here, if he had saved me instead, nobody would have died. Even if Nana had chosen somebody else to kill, it would have been 3v1, and I would have called her out, and it would have been possible to lynch/kill both of us on the following days/nights (bona can block the remaining suspect N3 if flamebirde is dead). Either way, plasmid's method was foolproof since the worst case ends in a tie. It would have been 100% foolproof if we had asked Flamebirde if he had used his vote manip in D1. It's weird how nobody thought t
  3. Actually, reading that made me realize we definitely could have known if we had just asked Flamebirde - unless he was the baddie which still would have been fine. So actually, a lot of plans would have worked - if we had known that. Also, slowly starting to realize that, contrary to what Nana said, plasmid was always able to clear himself if bona didn't block him since Hector's role would appear next to his kill, which means my original plan could have been a lot simpler. Anyways, it was fun! Thank you. Man, the end of D1 was a big twist for me. I had Flamebirde pegged as Dolore
  4. Fair enough. There were a few problems with your analysis of the first plan, but as far as I can tell, baddie can't win with the new plan. In fact, since I know that I'm not the baddie, I see it as a guaranteed win. I didn't realize that the name of the acting role appears next to every kill in the NP.
  5. Indeed, I did leave that part out. Like I said, I was operating under the assumption that I was not the baddie. If plasmid claimed that he had been blocked and NK'd you, it would clear bona and obviously you since you'd be dead. That just leaves me and Flamebirde as the other two suspects, and again, I was operating under the assumption that I was not the baddie. If plasmid NK'd Flamebirde instead, he would have to claim he was blocked, clearing bona, while I would clear you, leaving only me and plasmid as suspects. And again, if you operate under the assumption that I am not the baddie,
  6. I guess that's true. I initially thought this would allow a baddie plasmid to claim that he was blocked, NK Nana, and then blame Flamebirde. But I guess in that case we can just lynch Flamebirde and see if he saves himself.
  7. Just to be clear, here's my analysis of how my strategy might play out. However, this is all assuming everyone believes that I am who I say I am.
  8. Actually, I'm pretty sure Nana's claim defaults to Clementine since I claimed Maeve. Since you've claimed Teddy, Plasmid must claim Hector. I think Flamebirde is in the clear, both because of his behavior and since Aura 1.0 probably wasn't Dolores (she forgot about Dolores' block in her jab at plasmid). Also, hopefully, I'm mostly in the clear for claiming first. plasmid will be cleared if Hector acts tonight, although it could be a bit confusing if Hector and the baddie choose the same target. Therefore, I'm going to role spy Nana and ask Flamebirde to save me. I sugg
  9. That was really unexpected. Anyways, I suppose the game is pretty much set if we all reveal our roles? I claim Maeve.
  10. It was a man by the name of Abraham Wald. This story happened to be in the preface of a book that my dad bought me that I never read. Edit: also, he specifically suggested that the engine should be armored since it was statistically the least damaged area for returning planes.
  11. On the other hand, I would really like to hear from bonanova. 1. gavinksong - voting for bonanova2. Flamebirde - voting for Aura 2.03. Nana77 - voting for plasmid4. plasmid - voting for Aura 2.05. Aura 2.0 6. bonanova - voting for Aura 2.0
  12. Maybe it's bad to make inferences from this, but that makes it sound like Aura isn't indy. Edit: it also makes it sound like Aura 1.0 probably wasn't Hector.
  13. Sure thing! I didn't know that was the convention. 1. Gavinksong - voting for Flamebirde2. Flamebirde - voting for bonanova3. Nana77 - voting for plasmid4. plasmid - voting for Nana5. phil18826. bonanova
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