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UN Mafia III

152 posts in this topic

21 minutes ago, maurice_2.0 said:

Why is nobody dead yet?

Because plas is US?

Did you claim?

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3 minutes ago, bonanova said:

Suppose China and Sweden are outed. Do the goodies ensure a win, and, who is targeted first?

Well, Mo must be China, and Thalia must be Sweden. That is to say- You and Molly are more or less clear in my book, and probably in yours too, so it comes down to a three versus 1 vote best case scenario. We outvote and kill China, then tonight I save no one, ensuring the next day we have at least a two versus 1 vote (if someone gets RID killed). 

On the other hand, if the scenario is 2v1v1 with Molly as China and me as Sweden (as I think it's quite clear Maurice and I aren't on the same team), then if you both vote for one and China and Sweden vote together, then the game is incredibly, incredibly iffy- after your potential extra vote is factored and China's ODTG action is too, AND If Sweden RID kills a goodie, this means that it'll be 1v1v1, where the goodies lose this lynch, and Thalia (in this scenario, she would have to be Germany, since MUrice would be US, Plas would be Russia, and the other two roles are covered between Bonanova being Australia and Mike being the U.K.) would save herself.

then, China would to kill Sweden (since obviously Thalia would be protected), and Sweden can't trap the night after RID killing, so it would be Thalia versus China in the final lynch, with a coin flip for a tie and a China win. Not a good scenario.

 

but I know, since I am Germany, we can and should win this game.

Are we told the player's role if that person is RID killed?

Can Australia use their vote powers today?

15 minutes ago, maurice_2.0 said:

Why can't you be Sweden and Thalia be China.

 

See you went with if Molly lied, but I said if he's lying you're good... I don't think he is so you're bad, as is Thalia.

Who, then, is Germany? It's not you, it can't be Bonanova, and it couldn't be me in this scenario. It would have to be either Thalia or Molly, and if Molly was Germany, there would be no reason to lie nor to take a huge leap claiming Russia and supporting Bon. Therefore, if I am Sweden, Thalia must be Germany.

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Sounds good.

Host: araver
1. Thalia - quarantined by Sweden
2. bonanova - voting for Maurice
3. Molly Mae - voting for Maurice
4. Flamebirde - voting for Maurice
5. maurice - voting for Flamebirde

 

6. MikeD - Lynched D1 as United Kingdom
7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

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Well, I've got to sleep now. I'll try to check in the morning, but I might not be able to- I've got commitments up until at least one tomorrow afternoon (I live on the West Coast), so I can't answer any questions. Good night, and good luck.

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Traps don't stop RID kills. Here's hoping I'm not Sweden's target...

maurice claims he tried to kill me because I hadn't said anything... Great logic there. 

After the night post, for Australia, I was thinking maurice was Australia with a chance of being bonanova. The fact that maurice hasn't tried to claim Australia makes him a lynch target for me. 

I don't know about what the rest of you thought but from my point of view, flamebirde seemed like the most likely target for China. He seemed like the leader in a way. Making plans for how to coordinate kills and saves. I'm glad Australia agreed. If I were Sweden and not flamebirde, I'd think about taking the opportunity to frame someone. It's been a long time since I last played. I don't remember much about flamebirde's style of play but I think of MM and mo as the kind of players who might take that chance. That said, if I were China, I'd have killed maurice, thought to be Australia and not the most likely target.

I think telling Sweden who everyone is was a mistake. I don't expect anyone to trust me if I made a claim (I wouldn't trust me) but I suppose I can try to leave enough doubt to make things rough for kills. 

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The OP says she can though... And I realized afterwards I was able.

 

And I didn't say it was logical why I chose to kill Thalia... Why I chose to kill N1 was so that I could N3.  You and bonanova were the most suspicious due to your silence... The irony

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I will neither confirm nor deny being Sweden or China. Mainly Sweden since I think maurice is the only one claiming I'm China.

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The OP says she can though... And I realized afterwards I was able.

 

And I didn't say it was logical why I chose to kill Thalia... Why I chose to kill N1 was so that I could N3.  You and bonanova were the most suspicious due to your silence... The irony

Why can't plasmid be Germany?

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6 hours ago, flamebirde said:

1. Can ODTG actions be used if the player is quarantined?

1. Some ODTG can, some ODTG cannot. And it depends if the player quarantined is the target of the ODTG or one doing the ODTG.

I can't answer such a general question otherwise.

4 hours ago, bonanova said:

2. after D1 does everyone voted for get lynched?

2. OP says D2+ all players in tie are lynched. Not everyone voted for.
 

2 hours ago, flamebirde said:

3. Are we told the player's role if that person is RID killed?

4. Can Australia use their vote powers today?

3. No, if a person is RID Killed it is the same as in a Night Post, role is not revealed.

4. Normally I would say "no comment" since the question implies knowing stuff only Australia knows.

I will however try to be helpful and interpret it in the light of the NP showing Australia act as public knowledge, and answer "Australia can't use 2 powers the same night/day cycle".

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8 hours ago, Thalia said:

(1) Here's hoping I'm not Sweden's target...

(2) The fact that maurice hasn't tried to claim Australia makes him a lynch target for me. 

(3) I think telling Sweden who everyone is was a mistake.

(4) I suppose I can try to leave enough doubt to make things rough for kills. 

(1) Not likely ... B))  Deception Rule #1: Bury the lead when you're lying; don't lead with it.

(2) You agree killing China before Sweden is best. Plus, it lets you breathe a little longer.

(3) It exposed the rest of us, but why wouldn't you want to know? Oh, you're one of us.  I get it.

(4) It seems that's all you've got left to try.

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The worst part is that there's a chance we just hand Thalia the win by lynching China today: if at least one of the two dead people were one of her wincons, (that is either UK or US), and we lynch China, then she could easily RID kill the last target. Unfortunately, I'm not sure we have another option. It's a gamble, but...

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2 minutes ago, flamebirde said:

The worst part is that there's a chance we just hand Thalia the win by lynching China today: if at least one of the two dead people were one of her wincons, (that is either UK or US), and we lynch China, then she could easily RID kill the last target. Unfortunately, I'm not sure we have another option. It's a gamble, but...

Correct.  There is nothing we can do about this circumstance.

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Agree.

Our job today is to best-guess the secret countries, and keep them safe.

Since only Thalia know who they are, we should comb thru her posts.
Try to see when she targeted specific country(ies) without an (otherwise) apparent reason.

That said, does lynching China today make sense?
Thalia's point (2) above advocates lynching China, so we know that would benefit her.

Unfortunately, I acted last night so I can't un-quarantine Thalia today - she can't be lynched.

After more thought ... this post just reiterates FB and MM.
We may be screwed.

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2 hours ago, bonanova said:

(1) Not likely ... B))  Deception Rule #1: Bury the lead when you're lying; don't lead with it.

(2) You agree killing China before Sweden is best. Plus, it lets you breathe a little longer.

(3) It exposed the rest of us, but why wouldn't you want to know? Oh, you're one of us.  I get it.

(4) It seems that's all you've got left to try.

The lead? I'm not sure what that means. Those 4 are just in the order I remember the relevant posts being in.

I agree maurice dead is good because he isn't currently trapped.

From an outside point of view, I can say I think it's a mistake. I didn't say I didn't want to know. The fact is, assuming you're all telling the truth, Sweden knows who the three targets are. Maybe you live to lynch Sweden, maybe you don't. We shall see. ;)

Edited by Thalia

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2 hours ago, bonanova said:

Agree.

Our job today is to best-guess the secret countries, and keep them safe.

Since only Thalia know who they are, we should comb thru her posts.
Try to see when she targeted specific country(ies) without an (otherwise) apparent reason.

That said, does lynching China today make sense?
Thalia's point (2) above advocates lynching China, so we know that would benefit her.

Unfortunately, I acted last night so I can't un-quarantine Thalia today - she can't be lynched.

After more thought ... this post just reiterates FB and MM.
We may be screwed.

If Thalia was unquarantined, we might be screwed faster.  If the quarantine could instead move to China, that would solve our problems.

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1 hour ago, Thalia said:

(1) The lead? I'm not sure what that means.

(2) Maybe you live to lynch Sweden, maybe you don't. We shall see. ;)

(1) Burying the lead is a mistake of amateur journalists. Instead of stating the main idea up front. (Like implying you're not Sweden.)

(2) Exactly right, and the odds unfortunately seem to be in your favor.

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If I did the math right, we've got a 36% chance of winning this one. There's a 60% chance that the US wasn't one of the targets (4/5*3/4=3/5) and a 60% chance that UK wasn't one, and for us to win both must not be a target. .6*.6 gives us .36...

Well, not much we can do about it now. At least I've got my vote for today, so the lynch is guaranteed, even with the ODTG vote manip. Silver linings.

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Why are we lynching who "could" be China "handing" Sweden a possible win rather than lynching Sweden.  This makes no sense from so many angles, chiefly  that you are not lynching China.

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If you claim US, who do you think could be China? Besides me. I doubt I'm the only one on your list.

Reading back through your posts, I found it interesting that you pretty much called Molly a liar but didn't include him in your guess on China or Sweden.

Edited by Thalia

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Where did I call Molly I liar? Based on the claims Molly though could be China or Sweden, but it's unlikely... Though not impossible. I've been burnt by that one before.

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5 minutes ago, maurice_2.0 said:

Where did I call Molly I liar? Based on the claims Molly though could be China or Sweden, but it's unlikely... Though not impossible. I've been burnt by that one before.

I do want to say well in advance that I do recognise that you could be the US.  I just don't think it's as likely as the alternative.

If you are the US, I'll take full blame for the terrible and swift end that the goodies will meet.  

And, as always, I'll totally still <3 you, Mo.

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You didn't literally call him a liar but you've contradicted his claim that you're China. If he's claiming to be Russia having spied you and you're contradicting him, I'm not sure what else that means.

Now that I see Molly's post though, I'm kind of questioning his claim. . .

Care to share what you're basing your claim that maurice is China on?

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