UN Mafia III

[Thalia]

I'm ok with that for now. 

Players:

1. Thalia - voting for bonanova
2. bonanova - voting for MikeD
3. Molly Mae - voting for MikeD
4. Flamebirde - voting for bonanova
5. maurice - quarantined by Sweden
6. MikeD

7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

[MikeD]

Firstly some questions:

    Can Sweden self target?

If not then maurice cannot be Sweden.

And I forget and havent played for a while and have played on a number of site where the rules have been different so i just gonna ask.

    What does OOA mean? If someone dies at night does there action still go through? 

If that is true then plasmid could have been Sweden?

USA: I would imagine that even nights would be picked for at least some information before a kill.
Germany: though saves can be helpful, this is actually our weak link IMO, because of the risk of a x0 vote.
Russia: Should have some (hopefully) useful information to either clear someone or suspect someone.
UK: Should be able to clear someone else (maybe) from being Sweden.
Australia: I would image that australia would use anything night 1, maybe a save if anything.

Looking at things, tomorrow we probable will be at 2-1-1 is we mis-lynch today. (not counting USA kills) Which is a bad situation for the UN alliance given Sweden RID kill and China's vote remove.

So thinking out aloud here: We we no lynch today. This gives UK a extra day to block Sweden (if not able to do this that UK will be able to clear some players) depending of cause of the targets of teh block, kills and trap.) An extra day for  Russia to get more information. (of cause if they still around then)

What do you guys think?

(will will still be at 2-1-1 (or 3-1-0) with USA kill)

I tried to post this early (hours ago) but my phone was given problems. So I might have repeated things that have been discussed. I will read now that im on the computer whats has been going on. (i see i have 2 votes  ) 

I feel that its now too late for a random vote. so im not voting until i read (and re-read) the day so far.

[Molly Mae]

I think a tie vote favours us today, for sure.  I was going to change my vote to MikeD, but someone's done it for me already!

This is me officially updating my vote to MikeD (for tying purposes)

Players:

1. Thalia - voting for bonanova
2. bonanova - voting for MikeD
3. Molly Mae - voting for MikeD
4. Flamebirde - voting for bonanova
5. maurice - quarantined by Sweden
6. MikeD

7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

[MikeD]

14 hours ago, flamebirde said:

Germany didn't target Plasmid, and the block didn't target Sweden. Russia, make of that what you will.

Unless i misread, Germany might have targeted Plasmid, but their saved failed and now has x0 vote. yes? 

14 hours ago, flamebirde said:

In terms of strategy, if Australia is still alive, s/he should save at least one vote manip power down to the end, so if it ends up as a 1v1 the vote manip will win the Goodies the lynch (or at least tie it if China still has the ODTG vote removal).

The  Break quarantine is stated as used during the day. But are the add/remove vote used during the day or have to be choose the previous night? And can they use more than one a day?

14 hours ago, flamebirde said:

It may also be good for the U.S. to pick their kills in an obvious way if they don't have a good target (something like killing Thalia (#1 on the roster), then bonanova (#2 on the roster), and so on), so Germany can reliably save the target. Of course, this is also a bad strategy since it tips China off quite a bit, and also it wastes the save, but it might be worth it simply so we don't have a loose cannon.

problem with picking the first on the list is if its Germany, and then they die. But i do have a though about this will discuss later on.

 

14 hours ago, flamebirde said:

Beyond that, Germany is the least valuable player on the team in the end game, since if it comes down to a 1v1 then the 50% chance to not have a vote could make the game a loss instead of a tie.

In addition, plasmid is confirmed to be a goodie, since the Swede acted and China killed him, which means the game is now a 4v1v1... If after the lynch today we get a goodie, then it's 3v1v1 going into the night. If the baddie kills another goodie (75% chance) and U.S. kills a goodie (50% chance), then it's 2v1v1 going into D2. I'm not fond of those odds.

I agree that Germany is our weakness link. Your numbers are slightly off if into night is 3-1-1 and baddies and US kill then its 1-1-1. Giving a good change that Sweden only needs to kill China, but if Sweden is voted off then China can kill and win, almost a autolose if we lynch a town and two more die at night.

11 minutes ago, Molly Mae said:

I think a tie vote favours us today, for sure.  I was going to change my vote to MikeD, but someone's done it for me already!

This is me officially updating my vote to MikeD (for tying purposes)

Players:

1. Thalia - voting for bonanova
2. bonanova - voting for MikeD
3. Molly Mae - voting for MikeD
4. Flamebirde - voting for bonanova
5. maurice - quarantined by Sweden
6. MikeD

7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

Though we must be careful cause Germany might have a x0 vote and China can remove a vote.

[Molly Mae]

Players:

1. Thalia - voting for bonanova
2. bonanova - voting for MikeD
3. Molly Mae - abstains from voting 
4. Flamebirde - voting for bonanova
5. maurice - quarantined by Sweden
6. MikeD

7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

 

China can't remove a vote that isn't there, I guess.  Universal abstention guarantees a tie.

[Molly Mae]

Another note: UK's blockade does no good against China.  So it's really only good against Sweden.

[araver]

3 hours ago, MikeD said:

1. Can Sweden self target?
Yes.

2A What does OOA mean?

Order of actions:

- ">>" means happens before so it can't be stopped by another action (except for the save ...yeah, I know that breaks the symmetry).

- ">" means happens "before" but only comes into play when loops happen e.g. block > trap means if A traps B and B traps A, then block goes first, stopping the trap.

2B) If someone dies at night does there action still go through?

Sorry, I forgot to mention, kills are NOT blocking.

3. The  Break quarantine is stated as used during the day. But are the add/remove vote used during the day or have to be choose the previous night? And can they use more than one a day?

During the day. Each of Australia's actions can be used exactly ONCE.

 

[Thalia]

Whoops. Sorry Molly. The cursor keeps jumping around on my phone...

Since my last phone vote did weird stuff, could someone please change my vote to abstaining?

@MikeD I thought that too but Araver has clarified that the 50% part only applies to the vote. The save still goes through assuming not blocked. 

HOST: To clarify, even though plasmid was NKed, any night action he might have had would still go through assuming not otherwise blocked/trapped etc?

[Molly Mae]

Players:

1. Thalia - abstains from voting
2. bonanova - voting for MikeD
3. Molly Mae - abstains from voting 
4. Flamebirde - voting for bonanova
5. maurice - quarantined by Sweden
6. MikeD

7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

 

Updating roster.

[bonanova]

Oooops. In my post I was thinking plasmid was killed but typed araver. My bad.

 

[flamebirde]

Players:

1. Thalia - abstains from voting
2. bonanova - voting for MikeD
3. Molly Mae - abstains from voting 
4. Flamebirde - abstains from voting
5. maurice - quarantined by Sweden
6. MikeD

7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

 

Right, so if bonanova forgets/doesn't change his vote, then Australia needs to do the vote manip.

Edited because it duplicated and then merged my two posts.

Can Germany self-target?

Edited February 22, 2017 by flamebirde
It duped again...

[Thalia]

From the OP, it looks like Australia is the only one who can't self target. Given the news that kills aren't blocking, it looks like we know even less than we thought... plasmid isn't China but could be Sweden. maurice...who knows? Probably not Sweden.

[flamebirde]

I guess the other flaw in my plan is that if Thalia is U.S. then the strat won't work... I guess we'll have to abandon that train of thought. By the way, Thalia, I would have suggested other methods (i.e. all odds, all evens, primes, backwards...) but then U.S. might have gotten confused.

Else, Plasmid could be U.S. and the whole discussion is moot.

[araver]

HOST: To clarify, even though plasmid was NKed, any night action he might have had would still go through assuming not otherwise blocked/trapped etc?

Yes

Can Germany self-target?

Yes

 

[Molly Mae]

8 hours ago, Thalia said:

From the OP, it looks like Australia is the only one who can't self target. Given the news that kills aren't blocking, it looks like we know even less than we thought... plasmid isn't China but could be Sweden. maurice...who knows? Probably not Sweden.

Per the OP, Sweden can't die N1 and can't target the same person twice in a row.  I'd suspect that if Sweden would self-trap, it'd be N2.

[MikeD]

Players:

1. Thalia - abstains from voting
2. bonanova - voting for MikeD
3. Molly Mae - abstains from voting 
4. Flamebirde - abstains from voting
5. maurice - quarantined by Sweden
6. MikeD - abstains from voting

7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

 

@bonanova Are you planning to remove your vote?

On 2/21/2017 at 8:47 AM, Thalia said:

Germany didn't target Plasmid, and the block didn't target Sweden. Russia, make of that what you will. Germany has a 50% fail rate so it's possible.

In terms of strategy, if Australia is still alive, s/he should save at least one vote manip power down to the end, so if it ends up as a 1v1 the vote manip will win the Goodies the lynch (or at least tie it if China still has the ODTG vote removal). Agreed. 

It may also be good for the U.S. to pick their kills in an obvious way if they don't have a good target (something like killing Thalia (#1 on the roster), then bonanova (#2 on the roster), and so on), so Germany can reliably save the target. Of course, this is also a bad strategy since it tips China off quite a bit, and also it wastes the save, but it might be worth it simply so we don't have a loose cannon. I don't like this for two reasons. First, you just suggested killing me. Second, your plan to save me only has a 50% chance of working assuming Germany isn't killed, blocked or trapped. If Germany's save backfires, does that mean the save fails or Germany just loses a vote?

Beyond that, Germany is the least valuable player on the team in the end game, since if it comes down to a 1v1 then the 50% chance to not have a vote could make the game a loss instead of a tie. 

In addition, plasmid is confirmed to be a goodie, since the Swede acted and China killed him, which means the game is now a 4v1v1... If after the lynch today we get a goodie, then it's 3v1v1 going into the night. If the baddie kills another goodie (75% chance) and U.S. kills a goodie (50% chance), then it's 2v1v1 going into D2. I'm not fond of those odds. If US and China hit 2 different goodies, it'd be 1v1v1. Pretty bad odds. But the odds of Germany or the US picking the same target as China also goes up too. If they all pick the same target. . . Australia has an ODTG save. Since the US will have to target tonight, might make sense to use it the coming night so we have a save and a half. The UK's block is a bit scary right now with the chance of hitting the save but they might hit the US too. . . 

@Thalia I missed you post yesterday. Sorry. Petty much the same as what i thought and posted later.

[araver]

Casual reminder: 2 hours left.

[araver]

Day 1: One vote?

~~~~~

"Gentlemen, do you have a decision for me?". He quietly took the envelopes carrying the votes and tallied them in his head. "Very well, it seems you have reached a decision. I will take UK with me!"

~~~~~

Night 2 ends Friday Feb 24th at 9 PM UTC (About UTC). That means 4 PM EST and 11 PM for me.

Players:

1. Thalia
2. bonanova
3. Molly Mae
4. Flamebirde
5. maurice

6. MikeD - Lynched D1 as United Kingdom
7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

[flamebirde]

So, I guess either Plasmid or Maurice was Australia. Either way, bonanova is target number one for lynch or U.S. Kill...

[bonanova]

Taps watch. Oops. RIP MikeD. Would love to hear from maurice.

[Thalia]

14 hours ago, flamebirde said:

I guess the other flaw in my plan is that if Thalia is U.S. then the strat won't work... I guess we'll have to abandon that train of thought. By the way, Thalia, I would have suggested other methods (i.e. all odds, all evens, primes, backwards...) but then U.S. might have gotten confused.

Else, Plasmid could be U.S. and the whole discussion is moot.

I'm curious as to whether you would have suggested that had you been number 1 on the list... 

7 hours ago, Molly Mae said:

Per the OP, Sweden can't die N1 and can't target the same person twice in a row.  I'd suspect that if Sweden would self-trap, it'd be N2.

That's why I say probably not. I could see Sweden self trapping to throw people off. I haven't played with Maurice in a long time so I don't know if he's that kind of person. Unless something else comes up though, I'm marking him not Sweden.

39 minutes ago, flamebirde said:

So, I guess either Plasmid or Maurice was Australia. Either way, bonanova is target number one for lynch or U.S. Kill...

Just so the US understands, are we trying to kill and save me or just plain kill bonanova?

15 minutes ago, bonanova said:

Taps watch. Oops. RIP MikeD. Would love to hear from maurice.

 Tardiness kills in mafia...

[Molly Mae]

12 minutes ago, Thalia said:

I'm curious as to whether you would have suggested that had you been number 1 on the list... 

That's why I say probably not. I could see Sweden self trapping to throw people off. I haven't played with Maurice in a long time so I don't know if he's that kind of person. Unless something else comes up though, I'm marking him not Sweden.

Just so the US understands, are we trying to kill and save me or just plain kill bonanova?

 Tardiness kills in mafia...

With the possibility of Germany gone, I'd think it's safer to target bonanova than you, if the US is still around.

[bonanova]

@Thalia Understand, (with apologies to the players.)
Hanlon's Razor.

Seriously, what do we know about maurice?

[Thalia]

2 hours ago, bonanova said:

@Thalia Understand, (with apologies to the players.)
Hanlon's Razor.

Seriously, what do we know about maurice?

"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"

You're saying this in a game revolving around murder, deception, and potentially paranoia. . . I'd call that malice. In mafia, malice and stupidity are not mutually exclusive anyway. At the time of your last post, MM and I were already abstaining. It was one vote on you, one on MikeD. If I were in that situation, I'd be watching pretty close with the deadline coming up. Usually having your head on the chopping block does that to people. Could it have been an accident? Sure. But a lot of lying happens in mafia so. . .

As for maurice. . . I think we're 99% sure he's not Sweden. 

4 hours ago, flamebirde said:

So, I guess either Plasmid or Maurice was Australia. 

Then there's that. 

[flamebirde]

Right. I guess U.S. goes for bonanova. Germany then should try to save him, Germany is dead. Thalia isn't in the clear (nor is anyone, really...) but bonanova had a good chunk of time to change his vote (around sixteen hours), and he didn't. That's suspect to say the least.

 

So, If we're agreed - Bonanova is both

targeted for U.S. kill and then saved (depending on the availability of Germany). Either no kill happens, or the kill goes through and Bonanova dies (but if we're honest, we'll probably lynch him D2 if he survives... so maybe Germany is better off saving someone else).

If someone is targeted for a kill by both China and the U.S., will a save still keep that person alive? And if it doesn't (i.e. save only cancels out one kill), are we told that one kill failed and one kill succeeded?

5 hours ago, Thalia said:

I'm curious as to whether you would have suggested that had you been number 1 on the list... 

Of course. For now, though, you seem trustworthy enough. A fatal mistake in mafia, but you have to trust someone.

And a word of caution to China: you can't ally with Sweden. If you do, then Sweden just RID kills you for a victory (or even traps himself so he can't even be lynched or killed), so if it comes down to a 1v1v1, it'll be (strangely enough) goodies and baddies versus the indy.