Thalia
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Posts posted by Thalia
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1 hour ago, flamebirde said:
Right. I guess U.S. goes for bonanova. Germany then should try to save him, Germany is dead. Thalia isn't in the clear (nor is anyone, really...) but bonanova had a good chunk of time to change his vote (around sixteen hours), and he didn't. That's suspect to say the least.
So, If we're agreed - Bonanova is both targeted for U.S. kill and then saved (depending on the availability of Germany). Either no kill happens, or the kill goes through and Bonanova dies (but if we're honest, we'll probably lynch him D2 if he survives... so maybe Germany is better off saving someone else).
"Germany then should try to save him, Germany is dead."
Don't quite understand that sentence.
Haven't heard anything from maurice since the start of the game. Maybe still reading those manuals. But it looks like 3 of us are for targeting bonanova for the kill. I'm not sure either way on the save though. My head's spinning trying to figure out the numbers for different scenarios but why target for kill and save when you intend to lynch him the next day anyway? If Australia is alive, tonight would probably be best for using that save. At least we don't have to worry about accidentally blocking the saves...
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1 hour ago, flamebirde said:
Of course.
For now, though, you seem trustworthy enough. A fatal mistake in mafia, but you have to trust someone.
And a word of caution to China: you can't ally with Sweden. If you do, then Sweden just RID kills you for a victory (or even traps himself so he can't even be lynched or killed), so if it comes down to a 1v1v1, it'll be (strangely enough) goodies and baddies versus the indy.
Shh!!! Trusted people get NKed...
If it comes down to 1v1v1, I don't see it ending in a goodie win. Lynch Sweden and China NKs. Lynch China and Sweden could RID kill or even win from the lynch. Not sure what would happen if it's China against US. China comes first but the kill is not blocking...
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2 hours ago, bonanova said:
@Thalia Understand, (with apologies to the players.)
Hanlon's Razor.Seriously, what do we know about maurice?
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"
You're saying this in a game revolving around murder, deception, and potentially paranoia. . . I'd call that malice. In mafia, malice and stupidity are not mutually exclusive anyway. At the time of your last post, MM and I were already abstaining. It was one vote on you, one on MikeD. If I were in that situation, I'd be watching pretty close with the deadline coming up. Usually having your head on the chopping block does that to people. Could it have been an accident? Sure. But a lot of lying happens in mafia so. . .
As for maurice. . . I think we're 99% sure he's not Sweden.
4 hours ago, flamebirde said:So, I guess either Plasmid or Maurice was Australia.
Then there's that.
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14 hours ago, flamebirde said:
I guess the other flaw in my plan is that if Thalia is U.S. then the strat won't work... I guess we'll have to abandon that train of thought. By the way, Thalia, I would have suggested other methods (i.e. all odds, all evens, primes, backwards...) but then U.S. might have gotten confused.
Else, Plasmid could be U.S. and the whole discussion is moot.
I'm curious as to whether you would have suggested that had you been number 1 on the list...
7 hours ago, Molly Mae said:Per the OP, Sweden can't die N1 and can't target the same person twice in a row. I'd suspect that if Sweden would self-trap, it'd be N2.
That's why I say probably not. I could see Sweden self trapping to throw people off. I haven't played with Maurice in a long time so I don't know if he's that kind of person. Unless something else comes up though, I'm marking him not Sweden.
39 minutes ago, flamebirde said:So, I guess either Plasmid or Maurice was Australia. Either way, bonanova is target number one for lynch or U.S. Kill...
Just so the US understands, are we trying to kill and save me or just plain kill bonanova?
15 minutes ago, bonanova said:Taps watch. Oops. RIP MikeD. Would love to hear from maurice.
Tardiness kills in mafia...
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From the OP, it looks like Australia is the only one who can't self target. Given the news that kills aren't blocking, it looks like we know even less than we thought... plasmid isn't China but could be Sweden. maurice...who knows? Probably not Sweden.
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Whoops. Sorry Molly. The cursor keeps jumping around on my phone...
Since my last phone vote did weird stuff, could someone please change my vote to abstaining?
@MikeD I thought that too but Araver has clarified that the 50% part only applies to the vote. The save still goes through assuming not blocked.
HOST: To clarify, even though plasmid was NKed, any night action he might have had would still go through assuming not otherwise blocked/trapped etc?
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I'm ok with that for now.
Players:
1. Thalia - voting for bonanova
2. bonanova - voting for MikeD
3. Molly Mae - voting for MikeD
4. Flamebirde - voting for bonanova
5. maurice - quarantined by Sweden
6. MikeD
7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China -
4 hours ago, bonanova said:
Sad to see Araver gone as his analyses are usually pretty insightful, and I rank myself still as a newbie.
Anyway that said, I'm fairly certain that y'all want me in the game for reasons stated in a previous post.
Has something happened to Araver that the rest of us don't know about? I've seen attempts to lynch the host before but not a night killed one yet. 
4 hours ago, araver said:Privately.
Blocker is told if action failed/suceeded per rules in OP. Blocked player is told only if block was succesful.
Well, I guess we can ignore my previous guesses that plasmid or maurice are UK based on that...
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28 minutes ago, araver said:
1. Are blocks (both unsuccessful and successful) shown at all?
No.
The OP says quarantine/blockade are told to the players. How does that work?
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2 hours ago, flamebirde said:
Germany didn't target Plasmid, and the block didn't target Sweden. Russia, make of that what you will. Germany has a 50% fail rate so it's possible.
In terms of strategy, if Australia is still alive, s/he should save at least one vote manip power down to the end, so if it ends up as a 1v1 the vote manip will win the Goodies the lynch (or at least tie it if China still has the ODTG vote removal). Agreed.
It may also be good for the U.S. to pick their kills in an obvious way if they don't have a good target (something like killing Thalia (#1 on the roster), then bonanova (#2 on the roster), and so on), so Germany can reliably save the target. Of course, this is also a bad strategy since it tips China off quite a bit, and also it wastes the save, but it might be worth it simply so we don't have a loose cannon. I don't like this for two reasons. First, you just suggested killing me. Second, your plan to save me only has a 50% chance of working assuming Germany isn't killed, blocked or trapped. If Germany's save backfires, does that mean the save fails or Germany just loses a vote?
Beyond that, Germany is the least valuable player on the team in the end game, since if it comes down to a 1v1 then the 50% chance to not have a vote could make the game a loss instead of a tie.
In addition, plasmid is confirmed to be a goodie, since the Swede acted and China killed him, which means the game is now a 4v1v1... If after the lynch today we get a goodie, then it's 3v1v1 going into the night. If the baddie kills another goodie (75% chance) and U.S. kills a goodie (50% chance), then it's 2v1v1 going into D2. I'm not fond of those odds. If US and China hit 2 different goodies, it'd be 1v1v1. Pretty bad odds. But the odds of Germany or the US picking the same target as China also goes up too. If they all pick the same target. . . Australia has an ODTG save. Since the US will have to target tonight, might make sense to use it the coming night so we have a save and a half. The UK's block is a bit scary right now with the chance of hitting the save but they might hit the US too. . .
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Yeah. . . I've been having a lot of duplicate posting issues lately. . .
Since Araver answered no to both questions, you have all the information I have. I would guess if a block was unsuccessful, it wouldn't show. So I'm not sure what pressure on me will get you. But to summarize if you missed it:
plasmid is not the Swede
maurice is most likely not the Swede
Guessing plasmid or maurice is the UK but I can't say that for certain
Guessing US has picked even kills for obvious reasons
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Players:
1. Thalia - voting for bonanova
2. bonanova
3. Molly Mae - voting for Thalia
4. Flamebirde
5. maurice - quarantined by Sweden
6. MikeD
7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by ChinaWelcome vote to bonanova.
plasmid is definitely not the Swede. There is the possibility of Maurice being the Swede but that's pretty doubtful. Going to guess the US picked kills for even nights since it wouldn't make sense to kill completely at random right off the bat. Missing a block in the night post and potentially a save.
Do Germany and Australia's saves show in the night post if their target wasn't targeted for a kill?
If Germany's save backfires, are we told?
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HOST: Just to be sure, does save refer only to protect or to the save part of the trap as well?
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4 hours ago, araver said:
* OOA: Night invasion (kill) >> Blockade (block) > Quarantine (trap) > Protect (save) > Regular invasion > Spy
* Regular invasion can be blocked, the SA night invasion cannot be blocked, only saved fromHOST: The OOA seems to say that the NK will happen before anything else. How does that work with saying it can be saved from?
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Since the roles changed, I'd prefer a new thread with updated roles for reference purposes. Or a link to the post that has them. Signatures don't seem to show up on my phone. Hopefully I'll be on a computer more. Maybe a link in the role messages?
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Daily maintenance? This is a daily thing?
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Testing... I see MM's spoiler with brackets and all.
[spoiler=Test]Maybe it's a title thing. [/spoiler]
As for nested quotes, I'm not sure what's odd about nesting. I've noticed if I want to include the spoiler in a quote with text, I have to have the spoiler open before quoting...
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14 hours ago, bonanova said:
I would cast a mild vote for G / B / Indie game because I'm such a novice. Having said that, the present rules are nicely done.
Would that be so you can get more help from your baddie buddies?
I'm on to you... Let the insanity commence...
Hmm. If a baddie leaves, that potentially hurts his buddies. Too bad there's no backstabbing emoticon here.
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I haven't been on MM in forever so I don't know how active things are over there. Might have to do some recruiting from that end. I'm still here from time to time but not as often as I used to be. Think I can be on more if this works out though. Hope you can get the people.
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Are we trying to figure out who "we" are or who the migrants are or both? If we're looking for the migrants, is "we" referring to people?
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Sounds good to me!
Testing the waters (host): araver
Players:
1.Thalia
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No one else wants to take a stab?
SpoilerYour immune system? Makes me think of a virus and DNA.
UN Mafia III
in Games
Posted
The question is what kind of player is Sweden? The risk taking kind who possibly frames someone or the play it safe kind?
Thanks...I think... This is a site full of intelligent people with the potential to pull off a ruse.
Maurice has seemed unusually quiet. Trap doesn't stop talking although I'm not sure what he would have to say being trapped.