yeah that is pretty much the heart of what i concluded from thinking about this ---> there is another probability that should always be considered whenever anything is heard --- what is the probability that everything that i am hearing is correct?

this may seem obvious to always assess this probability, but i felt that the video maker was able to skillfully disarm the viewer into forgetting this fundamental suspicion.

if something is completely outrageous - like a bunny suit stopping a plague, then it might not even be worth considering as a possibility. if you do consider it as a possibility, they could lie about the numbers in such a way that it makes it seem like you should do whatever they suggest. you would only be safe if you make your own judgment about the probability of them telling the truth to offset the effect on the expected value from whatever numbers they throw at you. what if you don't go low enough?

how do we determine this probability when we make conclusions about things?

is it a judgment call?

does it come from the gut?

maybe the king is too scared to make that leap.

this probability is certainly subjective, and changes from case to case;

stuff to think about, if anyone is still reading