Yoruichi-san

Yeah...probability is confusing like that...but the main thing people don't realize (or realize they know) is that probability is dependent on observation...i.e. the probability of an event changes after it has been observed (or becomes statistics instead of probability)... Ever heard of Schrodinger's Cat or the collapse of the wavefunction? Well, to put it in a simple example: before you toss a coin, there is a 1/2 chance of heads and same for tails. Once you toss the coin, if you observe it turns up heads, that eliminates the possibility of tails, and then the probability becomes 1 that it was heads and 0 that it was tails. If you don't observe it (i.e. you don't know the result), the probability is still 1/2 1/2. If you toss two coins, the probability of heads for each is 1/2. So if you ask "what is the probability of coin i being heads", the probability is 1/2. If you toss one coin first and observe the result, then ask what the probability of heads for the coin 2 is, the answer is 1/2. However, if you toss 2 coins, the probability is 1/4 for each of the combos: HH HT TH TT. Now you observe one of the two is a head, so that eliminates the possibility of TT, but you don't know whether it is coin 1 or coin 2 and you don't have an observation for the other coin, so you have three equally likely possibilities, so the probability of any of the three is 1/3.

Crap...just had a thought...he could be the MoS...that would explain why he was so eager to link up with someone last night (since he was so close to being lynched yesterday...). Oh well, I guess if we lynch him and he survives we'll know... Edit: The more I think about this, the more likely it is...he pretended to be trying to save Slick since he didn't really care if the healer/doctor saved Slick...the point was not to kill Slick, but to link up with another QA...this happens whether their target actually dies or not...but I think we still should lynch him, at the very least we'll know he is the MoS...

Don't haunt *me*...if I had been at the execution, I would used my shinigami powers of super-speed to sweep you away and save you! (They *do* call Yoruichi "the goddess of flash")

Yeah, right...why would the QAs listen to you? If you weren't a QA, then if they thought the saving roles had a chance of listening to you and trying to save slick, they wouldn't go after him...waste of a night...plenty of other ppl to go after... Basically, by saying what you did, you told the QA's what they "should probably" do, so that you could meet up with the other QA...

The first word is right...;P...for the second, well, this stuff sells news...

Okay, I went and found the post, just to make my point...very clever, Brandon...XP So anyways, I'm going to have to give up being a pacifist and say: Host: Unreality 1) Frost - DEAD [Grim Reaper] Killed by Mafia 2) Brandonb - voting for Grey Cells 3) Kingofpain - DEAD [Defender] Killed by QAs 4) Pw0nzd - voting for Brandonb 5) Cherry Lane - voting for Grey Cells 6) Dawh 7) Nayana - voting for Brandonb 8) Dnae 9) Scott - DEAD [?] Killed by Mafia 10) GC - voting for BrandonB 11) Puzzlegirl - DEAD [bomb] 12) Slick - DEAD [?] Killed by QAs 13) Kat - voting for Brandonb 14) Wreath - DEAD [Ninja] Killed by Grim Reaper 15) Joe's Student - voting for Brandonb 16) Johnson - voting for Grey Cells 17) Frozen - voting for Brandonb 18) CrazyPainter - voting for Brandonb 19) Yoruichi - voting for Brandonb 20) Mekal - DEAD [?] Blown up

WOW...Awesomeville truly earns it's name...haha, the Mafia ended helping the QA's I guess....I hope the Sphinx has some good riddles...if not, I'd be more than happy to give him/her some . Oh, and sorry, PG...when I had to go off to bed/work it seemed like Wreath was going to be a victim of random mob justice...I had no idea it would end with such a *bang* (sorry, sense of humor again...) Anyways, for today, here is what I think: True that the mafiosos wouldn't want to vote for the bomb, but they do want the bomb dead, and since, as someone said, the bomb is pretty safe in coming out (the innocents protect her and the mafia already know who she is), they would want to kill her before that happened and before she could lie-detect them, i.e. the first day, so a good strategy would be to accuse PG and show support by voting for her, but then once the ball got rolling and they got enough other people voting, they could "change their minds" and avoid the risk of blowing up... If Brandon was mafia, then unfortunately for him, Brandon, it ended up being a close race b/w you and puzzlegirl, and if you changed your vote you would get lynched...it is better to take a 1/5 chance of being blown up than a 100% chance of being lynched...so the fact he voted for PG doesn't clear him... Hmmm...assassin? But actually, I think it is more likely that Brandonb is a QA, since if you notice from the story that the *other* QA finally found them...and if you remember (I don't feel like digging out the post from the 65 pages), Brandon made a "prediction" after the day was over, that the QAs should go after Slick...I think he was cleverly telling the third QA to go after Slick so that they could hook up... Please stay around, PG, I love your sense of humor!

Well done! I like that one I have a friend who is a competitive cuber... Any other thoughts? Hint: Don't stretch , compress

Holy crap! I just read 34 pages...I have no idea what is going on...last time I checked it looked like Wreath was going get railroaded...and now it somehow ends with PG blowing up Mekal...well, lol...I guess *this* definitely supports my stance against capital punishment ;P (sorry, can't resist letting my sense of humor out to play, again...)

Oh, and Frost, one thing (or actually three things) to keep in mind when you're "testing" someone: MoS - Since apparently 2 QA's found each other last night, if he/she is one of them, he/she can't be lynched today GR - Can't be lynched 1st day Atheist - Can't be lynched. Period. These characters wouldn't need to try to defend themselves since they're not going to die...although their roles might be revealed (I'm not sure how important this is to them, especially the atheist...) Anyways, going to bed...probably won't be able to check back up on this until the "day" ends, so I'll leave you guys to fight it out and with this: People lie, math doesn't. Random lynching gives 10/18 chance of hitting an innocent...the only people whose votes aren't random are the Mafiosos, who know each other and who want to kill everyone else, and I guess, the QAs who found each other... Anyways, good luck!

Haha...anyone who likes Batman *can't* be evil! Plus, she *was* a victim last night too, even if her life wasn't stolen... Not that it really matters, but ss for my vote, I guess I'll give dnae the benefit of the doubt of having too much free time and retract my vote...although I'm gonna keep an eye out...I considered the other option of him being an inspector and got wreath pmed to him, but then since he changed his vote, I don't think that is the case (and wreath is probably innocent)...anyways, I'm going back to being a pacifist until I get further information... Host: Unreality 1) Frost - voting for Mekal 2) Brandonb - voting for Joe's Student 3) Kingofpain - DEAD [Defender] Killed by QAs 4) Pw0nzd - voting for Kat 5) Cherry Lane - voting for Joe's Student 6) Dawh - voting for Brandonb 7) Nayana 8) Dnae 9) Scott - DEAD [?] Killed by Mafia 10) GC 11) Puzzlegirl 12) Slick - voting for Cherry Lane 13) Kat -voting for Wreath 14) Wreath - voting for Joe's Student 15) Joe's Student - voting for Wreath 16) Johnson 17) Frozen - voting for Wreath 18) Javoie - voting for Wreath 19) Yoruichi - voting for banning capital punishment 20) Mekal - voting for Wreath

Yep!

... I don't understand that reasoning...but the way I see it: There are at least 10 innocents still alive (11 if Scott was a QA or GR, prolly not Mafia since they wouldn't off one of their own...or would they? O_o, jk...I doubt it, anyways...) and 8 (or 7 baddies), so there is a higher chance (10/18 as opposed to 8/18) of randomly lynching an innocent... The Mafiosos want to kill everyone else, so they would be eager to get someone lynched the first day, and every successive day, and they know each other's identities, so they have 100% chance of voting for someone else, who they want to kill anyways...plus since it is the first day, and people don't really have any information and will just "go with the flow" (as has been demonstrated ), if they start off early suggesting someone to lynch, it's likely that person will be railroaded... ...which is why I'm definitely *not* voting for wreath or Joe unless someone gives me a good reason... Edit: P.S. My response to Frost is: give me a break for having a sense of humor...I added the second post afterwards when I thought of the "hell have no fury..." thing, especially since it goes so well with the humor in my first response...;P

Lol...well I didn't really want to vote for lynching anyone on the first day (higher chance of randomly offing an innocent than a baddie...), but since Dnae accused me of inactivity, I figured, why not...it's ironically amusing... Plus, now that I think about it, I find it *highly* suspicious that he was so eager to start the lynching...that smells fishy to me...(maybe cuz he just got back from making Scott or KP sleep with the fishes?).

Okay, fine then...cuz "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned"...;P 1) Frost 2) Brandonb - voting for Joe's Student 3) Kingofpain - DEAD [Defender] Killed by QAs 4) Pw0nzd 5) Cherry Lane - voting for Joe's Student 6) Dawh - voting for Brandonb 7) Nayana 8) Dnae - voting for Yoruichi 9) Scott - DEAD [?] Killed by Mafia 10) GC 11) Puzzlegirl 12) Slick - voting for Joe's Student 13) Kat - voting for Wreath 14) Wreath - voting for Joe's Student 15) Joe's Student - voting for Wreath 16) Johnson 17) Frozen - voting for Wreath 18) Javoie 19) Yoruichi - voting for Dnae 20) Mekal - voting for Wreath

Uh...lol? Look at post #85...you should see my familiar purple-haired avatar...geez, and here I thought I was the kind of girl that caught the attention of every guy in the room...;P ...or am I "inactive" for being not-bloodthirsty and not wanting to vote to lynch someone on the first day? XP

Gaaah! This is so hard...I've been looking back at this every hour or so (instead of doing my work like I should be XP), and I don't know who to vote for...I need a 18 sided die...well I guess I could just divide into 3 groups of 6...lol, this is turning into a grouping puzzle...I dunno...guess I still have time to make up my mind...or can we abstain from voting?

Yep Yes! No...here's a hint: unreality would get the picture...

Haha...so someone dug this up...I was beginning to think it would be relegated to the ranks of the forgotten wastelands... Not gonna post answers, though (sorry JIf )...it's a sequence puzzle so the solution is objective, not subjective, so even if I die or (less likely ;P) retire from BrainDen, someone can still figure out the correct answer....

Yep!

Yes Almost, first word isn't correct...the phrase is more commonly used with a different word Yes! Good. Yes. Very good No...second word is wrong. Hehe...*of course!* Wow, that actually works...I didn't realize there could be more than one answer, lol, but actually the answer I was looking for was something else...something less innocent Yeah, but its not 115..."put it in plain *English*" (hint hint ;P) Good work, all. So far 1,2,6,13 have been solved completely. Good starts on 4,7,8,11. Keep it up!

Okay, well, if you look back at post 29, basically Trogdor had figured out several important clues, and I made the other important clue very clear...also woon in his last post was totally on the right track, so combine what they did and you should be able to get it...