The Flying Spaghetti Monster and his Noodly Appendage <3.
Nick, that isn't how statistics work. I flip a coin. It lands on heads. BEFORE I flip, there's a 1/2 chance of it landing on heads. AFTER I flip, there's a 1/1 chance of it landing on heads. BEFORE roles are dealt, there's a 1/25 chance of Phaze being <role>. AFTER roles are dealt, there's a 1/1 chance of Phaze being <person>. It's kind of counter intuitive, but even if you narrow it down to five roles, four of which are baddies, there isn't an 80% chance that Phaze is a baddie, but rather a 100% chance that Phaze is who he is.