The king of your country decided to attend to the state’s budget matters. For that purpose, he wants to first conduct some layoffs of his court staff, and second, beef up the military funds by borrowing money from foreign investors. He calls upon you as one of his top mathematical advisors to provide your learned opinion on the borrowing matter in the following manner:
In his study hall, there is a box containing 100 cards, each with a number representing the dollar amount to be borrowed from foreign investors. The cards are drawn from the box at random one by one and presented to you for an opinion. You can reject a card with a number on it, then it is tossed away and the next card is drawn. If you accept the card, then the number on it is taken to be your advice and the session stops.
You know for a fact that unless you select the card with the largest number on it, your employment will be terminated. What strategy can you adopt to maximize your chance to select the largest number? With the best strategy, what is the probability to retain your position as a top mathematical advisor?
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The king of your country decided to attend to the state’s budget matters. For that purpose, he wants to first conduct some layoffs of his court staff, and second, beef up the military funds by borrowing money from foreign investors. He calls upon you as one of his top mathematical advisors to provide your learned opinion on the borrowing matter in the following manner:
In his study hall, there is a box containing 100 cards, each with a number representing the dollar amount to be borrowed from foreign investors. The cards are drawn from the box at random one by one and presented to you for an opinion. You can reject a card with a number on it, then it is tossed away and the next card is drawn. If you accept the card, then the number on it is taken to be your advice and the session stops.
You know for a fact that unless you select the card with the largest number on it, your employment will be terminated. What strategy can you adopt to maximize your chance to select the largest number? With the best strategy, what is the probability to retain your position as a top mathematical advisor?
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