Rat Hunt Mafia

[araver]

@plasmid - that's a great approach to the current situation (reminds me of curr3nt's ).

I only read it once, not enough to actually document all holes in the 4 plans.

But writing a couple of things which may affect those plans since insomnia kept me this far - 6am and counting and then I'll go to sleep:

1) One of the assumptions you make early on is that neither the Boss and Mr Brown are bad guys (undercover cops or whatever that's called in this mafia) and there's a lot drawn from that, including the premise that undercovers that can act won't act unless forced to. I think it's a stretch. Both the premise and the implication.

The whole distribution of minority abilities vs majority abilities and assuming some are surely part of the uninformed majority is a can of worms... this is subject to a little host-WiFoM, e.g would the host pick a killer as a baddie, wouldn't that be unbalanced? would the host pick the Boss as an baddie, wouldn't that be unbalanced?

If it's random, it's random, which means any plan has to have contingency plans even if a given role is part of the minority, otherwise a lot can fall through these cracks.

2) The second thing missed is that your plans require all players to agree on something someone claims and even if they do coordinate and it works as it should on paper - i.e. assuming best-play from their part, this still has to resort to wifom in order to avoid the (at least double- if not all-out-) exposure the plans itself create. You risk running out of key roles and you can't have Mr. White saving everyone at the same time.

3) Timing - Look at the timeline for a sec, try to simulate the game - how fast can the minority side achieve it's win?

Assuming the luckiest streak for the minority: 2vs6, one Nk 2vs5, one lynch 2vs4 one nk 2vs 3, one lynch 2vs2. That would be end of D2.

Now, your plans should prevent that from happening without running "out of ammo". When you say "lynch those two", you'd be better be in a situation where you still hold majority at least for the first one and be very sure about that first lynch. And that means protecting the vote manipulation if he's part of the majority (The Boss) since that ability is key to winning those lynches.

If the special conversion of Mr.White is taken into account, the absolute luckiest streak for the minority is: 2vs6 one-conversion-nk 3vs5, one-lynch 3vs4, one nk 3vs3. That's N2.

And by outing information, you might be also opening up the fast lane for Mr.White to win with the minority. It has been done before. Whenever a betrayer or faction choosing felt the balance tipping would lead to a sure or good odds of winning. This is a part of Mafia.

4) (and perhaps the most important bit left out) This is a game played by people. Much more often than not (sadly), people will not react as logical as you'd expect, nor read or trust or follow plans (even much simpler ones which can be explained in less than two lines). That's not something that should stop you from laying out plans.

But I did feel that you need the forewarning, so that you won't feel disappointed with the "human" side of Mafia - people don't always pay attention, don't always trust (or bother with) other people's logic, and don't always play an optimal solution.

[araver]

And a late addition to 4 which may have been too bitterly written - don't get me wrong the human side of the game is not all-bad, it leads to interesting stuff, including a lot of clever moves that involve mostly lying and misdirection. Just meant it's not a static puzzle.

OOC: Where's Hirk when you need someone to explain how the dark side Sith stuff works?

[Molly Mae]

OOC: Where's Hirk when you need someone to explain how the dark side Sith stuff works?

*Whispers* He got a job...

[plasmid]

Brief responses: Yes, you are correct that if Mr Brown is undercover then the plan won't work. But, if Mr Brown is undercover, then the mobsters have pretty much no way of identifying the undercovers regardless and are screwed either way.

You're also correct that I didn't talk about what would happen if the Boss is undercover. If (s)he is undercover, then I suspect that (s)he would simply not reveal anyone's roles and it would be as if I never made these suggestions. But if the Boss were undercover and posted lies about who has which role, then that would be a dead giveaway (at least to the players whose roles he lied about) that (s)he's undercover and needs to be lynched.

[plasmid]

Hi ho, hi ho, it's off to work I go. So I probably won't end up being able to log on again until close to the end of night 1.

But regarding the third point araver brought up of timing and maybe not being able to make this plan work quickly enough, that's why I posted it ASAP on night 1. I'd like to force people to spy Mr Brown or get Mr Green killing immediately if possible.

So, although I won't be around to field more questions / criticisms / food fights over the plan (unless today turns out to be an easy day at work)...

To the Boss: I will still be able to adjust whatever my night action is for tonight if we go ahead with any of the plans.

To the undercovers: I'm lying about having any night actions in order to confuse and annoy you.

[araver]

@plasmid - just a last thought before turning in for the night, depending on how N1 & D1 end, the odds may change and force such a plan as an only way. But for now, I'm discouraged by the fact very few actually wanted to discuss it *shrug*

[Guest]

If you have any thoughts that Mr. Gray could be bad, lynch MiKi

[Guest]

and looking back at some of these posts...just how old is araver?

[MissKitten]

Why me, mo? I thought we were friends! T.T

Haha, jk! Cuz this is mafia, right? Each one for themselves! Or something like that, at least...

[Molly Mae]

Post coming up shortly.

[Auramyna]

Post coming up shortly.

WOOT! Can't wait to see how this turned out!

[Molly Mae]

"Where's our driver!?" one of them yelled. "What the h*** is going on?"

"I think," said another, "that we have been set up."

"Set up?" the first asked

"Yeah. You were there. You didn't come to that conclusion?"

"So what do we do?"

"We wait for the Boss. And I'm sure he's gonna be pissed."

----

Over the next hour, several people showed up. Everyone seemed to be in good health--everyone except for maurice, who was covered in blood. He hobbled in and passed out on the ground.

"Someone get a doctor!" one of the men yelled.

But Mr White hadn't made it back from the job yet...

----

The group gathered for a discussion to figure out what was going on. Mr Gray stopped Kluemaster, and asked him a question. What began as a simple inquiry turned into an hour long chat and Kluemaster missed the convention.

----

"You there!" one of the men said to Auramyna. "Why didn't you come back straight away?"

"Oi," said she," I got new orders from the Boss' Son.

"Or maybe you were out informing the cops!"

"Now listen here, you--"

"Silence!" one of them yelled. "Let's take a vote..."

Host: Yuli and Molly Mae

1. plasmid

2. Flamebirde

3. MiKi

4. 'Cat'astrophe

5. KlueMaster

6. maurice - DEAD - Killed N1

7. Auramyna

8. Araver

Scum weekend: Day 1 ends Sunday at 8 pm.

Edited September 24, 2011 by Molly Mae

[plasmid]

So maurice was undercover and got kilt in a botched attempt to recruit Dr White, right? Right??

Based not so much on any information I have or any deep logical analysis of the probabilities, but on the good old Mafia hunch that in general baddies tend to be quieter than goodies, I suspect flamebirde, miki, cat, or aura.

[flamebirde]

Sorry, I just forgot to check in. I know, flimsy excuse, but it's the truth.

[Guest]

Host: Yuli and Molly Mae

1. plasmid

2. Flamebirde

3. MiKi

4. 'Cat'astrophe

5. KlueMaster - voting for plasmid

6. maurice - DEAD - Killed N1

7. Auramyna

8. Araver

Oh, I don't really believe that the traditional baddie characteristics will be exhibited by so experienced baddies. My vote is based on your curr3ntesque behavior, when he is a baddie.

[plasmid]

Fair enough. My defense is that I immediately posted the most optimal play strategy for the mobsters that I could come up with.

Which I still propose should be adopted if maurice wasn't one of the key roles to make it work (the Boss would of course know for a fact whether or not he was).

[Auramyna]

I'm suspecting KlueMaster and AV at the moment. Idk why, just a hunch but I don't think both of them are bad. Very possible that neither are as it isn't a strong hunch at all, and based on nothing but the tone of their posts.

This is effing BS. Every thing I go to say gives too much info to the baddies and not enough to the goodies. [writes][deletes][writes][deletes] ad infinitum

I would consider trying one or more of Plasmid's plans just for the sake of doing something interesting. Sure, it could backfire, but this is a game, nothing is certain and the point is to have fun.

I would like a save tonight. Just sayin' is all...

Edit- lost an i (don't run around corners with big sticks )

Edited September 24, 2011 by Auramyna

[Guest]

The only reason I don't agree to the plan is that at most we all will get to know what boss knows (assuming he is not a cop and not dead already). It still won't tell us who is the rat, while the cops will have the game open for them. Once this information is out they can plan the end game without any hassles. Hence, I do not think I will follow this plan.

[plasmid]

If you're the boss and you don't want to reveal too many roles, then you can choose not to follow the part of the plan involving forcing people to act on Mr Brown. If you prefer, we can just go with the part of the plan about Mr Green killing as instructed by voting. That would still give the mobsters two kills against the undercover's one kill.

And we could even institute that without the boss actually outing himself. I still think it would be ideal to out Mr Green ahead of time so we know who to lynch if he doesn't follow orders (and have Dr White save him every night), but if that seems too risky we could just vote for both who to lynch and who Mr Green should kill.

That said, I'd still prefer to force people to act on Mr Brown so we get a shot at identifying the undercovers if they can act.

[flamebirde]

At least Plasmid's plan makes sense, But if we don't follow his plan, then what do we do?

[Guest]

if we reveal Mr green, he dies or our save is wasted

if we reveal Mr brown, we lose the chance of recognizing a baddie

so i don't want to agree with the plan as it is...

[plasmid]

To clarify, the super stripped-down version that does not involve outing anyone:

We all vote for both a person to lynch and a person for Mr Green to kill every day, to give the mobsters two kills a day. If Mr Green doesn't follow orders, then he was probably undercover and refusing to kill the other undercover. We lynch the person he failed to kill, and if anyone still alive knows who Mr Green is they out him as the other undercover.

[Guest]

The problem is, it is only as good as guessing who is the rat. We will guess that during lynch anyway, but the plan will now tie the hands of Mr Green as well.

[plasmid]

We would be exchanging a kill made by Mr Green independently for an extra kill guided by a vote (everyone gets one vote for who to lynch and one vote for who Mr Green kills). If Mr Green is undercover, this is certainly a good thing. If Mr Green is not undercover, he goes from killing independently (based on essentially no information beyond what's in the main thread since he can't learn roles), to killing based on a vote where some of the voters have inside information on roles (the boss can nudge him away from killing Dr White or Mr Brown), but some of the voters are undercover agents. I can understand the position against letting the undercovers have any influence on who Mr Green kills, but I think it's overall offset by the security gained by knowing that if Mr Green is undercover then he cannot snipe mobsters at whim and will have to obey orders or else essentially out his fellow undercover agent. (But I still think it would work much better if Mr Green got outed and saved by Dr White every night [with potential for wifom] so blockers and redirectors can't target him accidently, and would essentially out themselves as undercover if they did... if Mr Green acted solo there would be a risk of losing his kill from a block or redirect.)

The fact that Mr Green did not act night 1 might be considered evidence that he is not undercover, but I think it is very weak evidence because an undercover Mr Green would know that he'd raise suspicion if he killed on night 1 without any real info and therefore be heavily targeted by the boss. (It's also possible that he did try to act and he got blocked.)

Or maybe you meant something else entirely when you were talking about keeping Mr Green's hands tied... it would make it less fun to play the game for whoever has that role? Since the top three priorities in a mafia game should be

#3. Keep yourself alive

#2. Make your faction win

#1. Make the game fun for all involved

I guess that argument has merit. But even if we voted on targets for Mr Green, it's not difficult to imagine ways where there would still be room for Mafia strategery, especially later in the game.

Edited September 24, 2011 by plasmid

[MissKitten]

Wow.... It's quiet today.... How are we supposed to find the undercovers if nobody talks? I mean, sure, it's a scum weekend, but that just gives more time to discuss, right?