Rat Hunt Mafia

[flamebirde]

And please, open ALL the spoilers.

[plasmid]

OMG!!! Flamebirde, definitely please DO NOT out your role under any circumstances!

It would be critical to keep it secret in the final round after we kill off the first rat. You're gonna have to trust me on that.

Edit: ah, just saw the other posts. Phew! Thank you, Flamebirde!

Edited September 28, 2011 by plasmid

[flamebirde]

Unfortunately, I still can't trust you for previous reasons.

[flamebirde]

got to go. see ya tomorrow, unless I get killed which is definitely not good as I am a LEGIT MOBSTER.

[plasmid]

That's understandable. I've done what I can by asking Mr Black and Mr Tech to spy me to verify my identity if they're still alive, and explained the logic behind my actions, including why I outed myself like I did. It's not proof to the same degree as the logic problems on this site, but that's the best objective evidence I can produce. I admit you're justified in not completely trusting me. All I can say is: it's hard for me to come up with a great explanation for why a rat would have done what I did. That's just the way Mafia goes.

Host: Yuli and Molly Mae

1. plasmid - voting for AraVer

2. Flamebirde - voting for AraVer

3. MiKi

4. 'Cat'astrophe - DEAD - Lynched D1 and found to be a legitimate gangster

5. KlueMaster - DEAD - Killed N2

6. maurice - DEAD - Killed N1

7. Auramyna - voting for AraVer

8. Araver - voting for Auramyna

Adding flamebirde's vote as requested above.

Edited September 28, 2011 by plasmid

[MissKitten]

Ok, I'm not really on a very mafia-friendly device, so I can't copy the roster. I agree with the accusations against araver, so will somebody please put a vote in for araver for me?

[plasmid]

Host: Yuli and Molly Mae

1. plasmid - voting for AraVer

2. Flamebirde - voting for AraVer

3. MiKi - voting for AraVer

4. 'Cat'astrophe - DEAD - Lynched D1 and found to be a legitimate gangster

5. KlueMaster - DEAD - Killed N2

6. maurice - DEAD - Killed N1

7. Auramyna - voting for AraVer

8. Araver - voting for Auramyna

Adding MiKi's vote as requested above.

[araver]

Yeah, well, none of you are addressing what I said, and that makes me sad. Overall, it was far too short-a-Mafia (can't complain, cause I was away for a day as well).

@plasmid - you really are not getting the hang of the game. The priorities are #1 win #2 win and #3 win. There's no other logical option. Add your chances and see which side guarantees a win in a 3vs2 situation.

@Aura - nice try. As usual, I can't pin anything on you, since you always respond with 4 short different posts and claim to not to know anything. And I can't argue that you should've known and did know :shrug: Cat was obvious when she talked about her uncertainties, that was outing. That did not pass the Segul test. I fail lynching you again and again and again. I wish I could be as believable if I said I did not notice stuff

[plasmid]

Yeah, I sort of thought about having the rats recruit me to win the game. Not so much because winning is my top priority, but because at one point someone said it would be nearly impossible to recruit the doctor, so thought it might be epic if I were to wind up winning that way.

But, I can't trust the rats enough (or rather, I don't think they would ever trust me enough) to pull off a save redirect onto a self-kill. I think my odds are better with the legit mobsters.

BTW, you were right, I had absolutely no idea that cat was claiming Mr Green! Oh well, this is just my first Mafia game after all

[Molly Mae]

Day post coming shortly.

[Molly Mae]

Day 2: Hostage Crisis

"Well we need to choose quickly," someone said.

"Lets bind Araver and use him to escape," plasmid suggested.

Everyone nodded and turned to Araver, who glared at Plasmid. "Who are you to determine my fate?"

They all turned to Plasmid, expecting an answer. His face was a mask of seriousness. "I'm the doctor."

...

"Doctor who?"

Bound and gagged, they took Araver outside and confronted the police force.

And the police didn't open fire...

"We're making our escape now," one of them said. "Here are our demands..."

Host: Yuli and Molly Mae

1. plasmid

2. Flamebirde

3. MiKi

4. 'Cat'astrophe - DEAD - Lynched D1 and found to be a legitimate gangster

5. KlueMaster - DEAD - Killed N2

6. maurice - DEAD - Killed N1

7. Auramyna

8. Araver - Bound and gagged and used as a hostage, since he was an undercover cop

N3 ends in 24 hours (around 1030 am Central Time).

[plasmid]

Miki, want to hand over your badge now, or get lynched tomorrow?

[Auramyna]

I knew it! I KNEW it!!! AV is losing his touch. Just cos it's BD, doesn't mean you gotta act scummy, AVes

So, wtf now? Anyone that can act on me tonight, should do so. Btw, who did Cat claim? I haven't actually reread her posts cos im on my ipod. Be nice if I could get a save tonight and those who can act, do so on me. If your acting on me shows up in the post, I can clear you as I receive a PM if a baddie acts on me.

I have more analysis and suppositions but i gotta goto work so ciaozerz for naozerz

[plasmid]

Aura, here's the scoop.

Everyone now knows that you're outed as Mr Brown and I'm outed as Dr. White.

MiKi is the second rat.

Flamebirde is still unknown, and should stay that way.

So it's three mobsters against one rat, and will be two mobsters against one rat if the night kill goes through tonight. Either way, MiKi gets lynched tomorrow. I've just asked her if she wants to go ahead and call it a game now, or drag it out to the bitter end.

If the game does proceed, then I'm going to have to guess who MiKi will NK and try to save them. I might save you, I might save myself, I'm probably not going to save Flamebirde to be honest (sorry dude ). But I'm just guessing who MiKi will try to kill, and it won't really matter since the mobsters will be in the majority tomorrow anyway.

Just be sure if I pick wrong and MiKi night kills me, that both you and Flamebirde vote to lynch her tomorrow.

Edit: at least you know I think you're legit, Flamebirde

Edited September 28, 2011 by plasmid

[MissKitten]

And how am I the other rat?

[flamebirde]

I don't know. I don't know... By the way, plasmid, What if you are the other rat? and what about Aura? What about ME???

[plasmid]

And how am I the other rat?

It was easy for me to figure out that I could accuse you of being the second rat, MiKi. That is to say, I had more than enough information to bluff.

It was based on how you and flamebirde reacted in the standoff between araver and me.

First clue was the tone of the response. Flamebirde's response was what you would expect from a legit mobster overwhelmed by a complex scenario and determining the outcome of the game. If he was a rat and just acting, then he did such a phenomenal job that he deserves a shot at pulling off a miracle. But that alone wouldn't be enough to force me to pick you to bluff against.

The second and more important clue is that Flamebirde responded first. I don't know whether you just didn't have a chance to reply before he did, but replying first would not be expected rat behavior. The second rat would know that aura and I were going to cooperate against araver, and would wait to see what the third mobster does. If the third mobster doesn't go along with my plan, then neither does the second rat, and the baddies have a chance of flash-voting to kill off a mobster and would end up winning the game. If the third mobster goes along with my plan, then the second rat goes along with the plan too in an effort to not reveal that they're the second rat. If Flamebirde were the second rat, I don't think he would have been willing to respond first out of you two.

I also considered the possibility that araver and flamebird were in cahoots. I know that araver is a really good logician; it's conceivable that he might have analyzed the situation from my perspective given all the talking I've done about "optimal play" and basing so many of my inferences on people following it. It would be a huge WIFOM, but he might have asked flamebird to pick a suboptimal strategy to clear himself in my eyes. But I think that it's doubtful. Mostly because if araver had really analyzed the situation from my perspective, he would not have targetted aura, he would have said "I'm definitely innocent, if you're so sure that two of us three are rats then target either of the other two, I don't care which because they're both rats." Then I would have only had a 1/3 chance of identifying both rats.

That's why I decided to bluff against you instead of Flamebirde.

You weren't foolish enough to confirm overtly that you're the second rat, but your response to my bluff still reinforces my suspicion. If you were the third mobster, I would have expected you to be more like "WTF?!? I'm not the rat, go back and recheck your math." Or at the very least, "What makes you think I'm a rat? I didn't do anything." It's subtle, but the way you phrased your response now is more like what the rat would say.

Now that I've answered your question, it's still your call on whether we carry on. I'll be in the tardis in case a victim needs me.

[flamebirde]

Careful. You don't know how MiKi will respond. If she targets you for the kill tonight, you could be dead.

[flamebirde]

wait. MiKi can't target Aura because of her role. That leaves me and Plasmid, and she'll go after me because of your statement "I probably won't save Flamebirde."

[plasmid]

I don't know. I don't know... By the way, plasmid, What if you are the other rat? and what about Aura? What about ME???

Recap of the evidence

Aura had claimed the role of Mr Brown much earlier in the game when she said that the person who redirected her was bad. If either the real re-directer (Boss' son) or the real Mr Brown saw that claim and she were lying, they would have been able to call her out on it. Also, I intentionally outed myself as the doctor in a way that both a logician (araver) and a word-riddler (MiKi) could understand, first by asking Mr Black and Mr Tech to spy me, and second by posting a word riddle under the ruse of making it look like I was trying to sort of BTSC with a goodie. Both of those were traps to make sure that they knew I was outing myself as the doctor. The reason I didn't just come out and claim the role overtly is: in my past riddles here the only ones that have still gone unsolved are the ones that require two different approaches to be taken within the same riddle. That is to say, if the rats thought they intercepted a secret message saying that I'm the doctor, then they would think the problem is solved and not look any deeper. If they saw me openly claim to be the doctor, they would wonder what I was up to. Only in the first case could I count on them to have the redirect aimed at me to ensure the night kill goes through, which is exactly what happened to confirm my suspicion that aura was telling the truth when she said the redirecter is a rat.

As for me, I'm the doctor and I haven't saved anyone yet, so I couldn't have saved a rat and turned undercover. I can't prove beyond any shadow of a doubt that I'm the doctor, but given how events actually turned out, it's hard to think of any way it could have played out like this if I were undercover.

As for you, you'd better know for darn sure that you're legit already!

[plasmid]

Careful. You don't know how MiKi will respond. If she targets you for the kill tonight, you could be dead.

It doesn't matter if I die, as long as you and aura vote to lynch MiKi the entire undercover team (including dead ones) still wins.

wait. MiKi can't target Aura because of her role. That leaves me and Plasmid, and she'll go after me because of your statement "I probably won't save Flamebirde."

That's what we call WIFOM: "Wine in front of me", a classic scene from the movie Princess Bride. In short, MiKi knows I might be lying anyway, so it doesn't really matter what I say. I just threw that in there to toy with her a bit Edit: Aura is also still a potential target. If aura gets targeted by the night kill, then she wouldn't be alive the next day to tell us who killed her. And technically I think the night kill comes from the undercover team instead of a particular undercover player anyway.

Edited September 28, 2011 by plasmid

[MissKitten]

First clue was the tone of the response. Flamebirde's response was what you would expect from a legit mobster overwhelmed by a complex scenario and determining the outcome of the game. If he was a rat and just acting, then he did such a phenomenal job that he deserves a shot at pulling off a miracle. But that alone wouldn't be enough to force me to pick you to bluff against.

The second and more important clue is that Flamebirde responded first. I don't know whether you just didn't have a chance to reply before he did, but replying first would not be expected rat behavior. The second rat would know that aura and I were going to cooperate against araver, and would wait to see what the third mobster does. If the third mobster doesn't go along with my plan, then neither does the second rat, and the baddies have a chance of flash-voting to kill off a mobster and would end up winning the game. If the third mobster goes along with my plan, then the second rat goes along with the plan too in an effort to not reveal that they're the second rat. If Flamebirde were the second rat, I don't think he would have been willing to respond first out of you two.

You weren't foolish enough to confirm overtly that you're the second rat, but your response to my bluff still reinforces my suspicion. If you were the third mobster, I would have expected you to be more like "WTF?!? I'm not the rat, go back and recheck your math." Or at the very least, "What makes you think I'm a rat? I didn't do anything." It's subtle, but the way you phrased your response now is more like what the rat would say.

Actually, I was indeed busy from about 6:00 CDT to the time I posted, and before that I had homework. [blame high school. *glares at homework*] So I wasn't really in a position to post before the time I did. So I don't really think that's "evidence" against me.

Also, in response to how I responded, over the internet, it's probably not very obvious, but that's how I act IRL. If I'm accused of something, whether I really did it or not, I always just kinda raise an eyebrow and say "Oh really? And how exactly did I do that?" And I have friends on BD who you could ask if you don't believe me, so I don't think this is "evidence" against me either.

[And just as a side note, I'm not really all that good at word riddles and whatnot...]

[plasmid]

Still, if I ask myself whether the second rat is Flamebirde or MiKi, all available evidence points to MiKi. BTW, I wasn't basing my hunch on the fact that you weren't able to reply first, it was based on the fact that Flamebirde DID reply first, which the second rat shouldn't do. Even though Flamebirde doesn't seem to be completely abreast of the situation, araver certainly could have coached him if he were a conspirator.

Time to play WIFOM. You've got one chance to guess who I'm going to save tonight, good luck.

Aura and Flamebirde, in case I choose one of you to save and she ends up night-killing me, be sure to lynch her tomorrow.

[MissKitten]

Of course, Araver may not have been available. Before, when I was in a BTSC, a lot of times my BTSC members weren't in the same time zone or something, so I was alone. And they were alone when I was asleep. I dunno, it could happen.

And one more thing: have you ever considered that maybe flame wants to frame me? I mean, she's kept pretty quiet the entire game, right? Isn't it possible that by keeping quiet, you were "inclined" [i guess that's the word...] to think I was the rat, because you had been offered no "evidence" by flame? Like Luna Lovegood's dad in Hary Potter: If you can't prove that something doesn't exist, then you're forced to believe it does. So because you have no evidence of flame being the rat, you're more inclined to think I'm the rat, because several subtle glitches in my posts can be warped and twisted and turned against me. Another analogy: it's like that one strategy in debate [i can't remember what it's called....] where you fudge the opponent's arguments to make it look like they're taking a position that they're really not. Then you easily defeat that position, and manage to make it look like you've won the debate. So it's totally possible that flame could be using me as a decoy, correct?

[plasmid]

Araver was the first to respond when I started the standoff, so he had a chance to offer strategy to anyone who acted later. Also, that was the most pivotal point in the game where strategizing between the rats would be absolutely critical, it's very hard to believe that he would have let that pass without giving any instructions to Flamebirde.

Flamebirde has been quiet, but so have you. Believe me, I've looked for any clues that would suggest that araver was having an influence on Flamebirde and found none. If you'd like to try to find incriminating evidence, then be my guest. The actual lynch vote is still not for a while. For now though, I know full well that I'm working with limited information, but at the end of the day you have to make a choice.