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Mirror Mafia


Hirkala
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There are 20 roles Phaze could be. 11 of them are baddy/indies, while 9 are goodies. My mathematics are not fallacious in any way whatsoever. Phaze is now playing the same game Izzy did, saying he dropped hints while he really didn't, I believe, though there is that chance I missed it. Strange how you haven't questioned Phaze at all since day started, isn't it?

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Adding MK's vote

Hosts: Hirkala and Blablah

1)Framm - Voting for RT

2)Lionheart

3)GMaster479 is voting for Fox

4)Vipe195 - Voting for Phaze

5)Filly - Voting for Fox

6)LJ

7)Phaze - Voting for Fox

8)yuiop - voting for limey

9)Glycereine

10)Vineetrika

12)Marq

13)RainThinker

14)Harvey is voting for qwerty

15)Limey is voting for LJ

16)woon

17)qwerty

18)Fox

19)MissKitten - voting for Phaze

20)EDM

21)NickFleming - voting for Phaze

22)Izzy is voting for Marq

23)24_65...

24)golfjunkie

25)onetruth

Dead:

11)Molly Mae-Killed by Reflectors

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Oh okay. Well, gtg now, bedtime. Though I don't see why you can't tell everyone, as I'm sure at least one of the baddies would pick up on it and share with everyone else. So why not Phaze? Enlighten us.

EDIT: For the record this was posted after Phaze's edit.

Edited by NickFleming
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Who would that be? :D

The Flying Spaghetti Monster and his Noodly Appendage <3.

Nick, that isn't how statistics work. I flip a coin. It lands on heads. BEFORE I flip, there's a 1/2 chance of it landing on heads. AFTER I flip, there's a 1/1 chance of it landing on heads. BEFORE roles are dealt, there's a 1/25 chance of Phaze being <role>. AFTER roles are dealt, there's a 1/1 chance of Phaze being <person>. It's kind of counter intuitive, but even if you narrow it down to five roles, four of which are baddies, there isn't an 80% chance that Phaze is a baddie, but rather a 100% chance that Phaze is who he is.

Edited by Izzy
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Izzy, you understand exactly what I'm saying. I have no way whatsoever of for sure knowing his role, even if I had spy. He had a 1/25 chance of every role, but some of those have been disproved. There is a 45% chance I am wrong, but the 55% outweighs the 45. My reasoning is completely logical.

Edited by NickFleming
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Izzy, you understand exactly what I'm saying. I have no way whatsoever of for sure knowing his role, even if I had spy. He had a 1/25 chance of every role, but some of those have been disproved. There is a 45% chance I am wrong, but the 55% outweighs the 45. My reasoning is completely logical.

Maybe Izzy knows something that you dont

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...this is a lot of talking about nothing. You guys were nothing close to targets. I think Phaze and Izzy know something that we probably would want to know. The point is the argument is just painting a bigger target on all of your backs and doing that this early in a big game is interesting. For now, I'll keep my vote the same, wait on Kat

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Actually, let's continue on with the messed up math. Nick, I know you aren't who I am, I know you didn't spy on me, I know you aren't who Phaze is, and I know you aren't Prism. 25 roles, 4 you are not. 12 goodies, 9 non-goodies. A mere 43% chance that you're a non-goodie, *nothing* compared to Phaze's 45%! :rolleyes:

Just to put that into perspective for you. ;)

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Izzy, is there some reason you are being deliberately obtuse/misleading? To Phaze, there is a 100% chance of him being the role he is. To the rest of us, we can only use statistical probability based on the information given.

edit: I agree GM, Phaze/Izzy almost certainly know something the rest of us don't, but there are many things that could be...

Edited by golfjunkie
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Misleading in what sense? That I've found it frustratingly obvious through this rather pointless discussion who Phaze is, and Nick is either blind or willingly ignoring it? A MASSIVE hint was dropped; I don't need to be Prism to see it if that's what you're getting it. If you're referencing the math, see my example.

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Gaaaaah there are votes on me for no reasoooooooon D: ! (First day bandwaggon FTL)

Hi :) I'm here now.

On the Phaze prism/facade thing: I'm really no math type ._. So I'm not getting this percent thing but just from the posts I'm gonna have to say I believe that Phaze is good :) But that's pure intuition and trust xD

On the random votes for me: Please please please don't let me be the majority :wacko: It's just a random bandwagon I know so I'm not gonna make too much of a deal out of it (yet) but I really don't want to get into a huge thing about it when they're just random votes. Just know that I'm not someone you want to be voting for :( ._. Can we bandwaggon someone else please?

I'll vote in a sec :)

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I did see your example, but that is not fallacious either. You are correct, the chances of Phaze being the role he is assigned are 1:1. That does not change the fact that Phaze could have been assigned any of the 25 roles, and since we do not know what role he has been assigned, we can only assign probability based upon information that has been revealed or can be reliably inferred.

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Hmm ._. I don't think Phaze is bad but I have a majority too......what to do what to do....

Hosts: Hirkala and Blablah

1)Framm - Voting for RT

2)Lionheart

3)GMaster479 is voting for Fox

4)Vipe195 - Voting for Phaze

5)Filly - Voting for Fox

6)LJ

7)Phaze - Voting for Fox

8)yuiop - voting for limey

9)Glycereine

10)Vineetrika

12)Marq

13)RainThinker

14)Harvey is voting for qwerty

15)Limey is voting for LJ

16)woon

17)qwerty

18)Fox - voting for LJ

19)MissKitten - voting for Phaze

20)EDM

21)NickFleming - voting for Phaze

22)Izzy is voting for Marq

23)24_65...

24)golfjunkie

25)onetruth

Dead:

11)Molly Mae-Killed by Reflectors

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