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Yoruichi-san

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Posts posted by Yoruichi-san

  1. What's the probability of the plague happening? It seems like an easy enough value analysis...

    Expected value of preventative measures = Cost of preventative measures - (Probability plague happens)(cost of plague)

    E=100,000-10,000,000p

    Hence if p<0.01 (1 percent), then then no point of taking action.

    Also, is it certain that the preventative measures will prevent the plague? If not, then modify:

    Expected value of preventative measures = Cost of preventative measures - (Probability plague happens)(cost of plague)(probability preventative measures will succeed)

  2. Zap* Done.

    Nothing happens and you regret that you didn't gain anything from your wish.

    I wish to always be in control of any situation (any situation external to my own thought process - since genie can't control my mind).

    I did gain something...information (about how genies grant wishes) :P.

    "Any situation"? Okay, you are in control of what you type next on your computer. Done.

    I wish I to be able to shape-shift into any and all things, at any and all times I want, for whatever length of time I choose.

    (C'mon, I can't be the only one who wants superpowers? ;P)

  3. Speaking of defining things differently...what you call "stubbornness" I call "strong will", which has been very healthy for me since it's what drives me to work out and push myself (and run a marathon ;P).

    I see. Thanks for the clarification. But I have to point out that what (emphasis added):

    Apparent Randomness = What we as humans superstitiously attribute to things that we cannot make sense of due to lack of information and understanding about it.

    Sure there is plenty of info we do not have, but my point is, and has always been, that there are pieces of information we cannot have, such as is stated in Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle. Hence the future is unpredictable with certainty, and the more complex an event is, the more uncertainty there is.

    Secondly, I was basing "not a well-formed yes-no question" on your example, which was "what is the weight of a feather", which is obviously not a yes-no question. My question was definitely a yes-no question, just not one that can be answered with certainty.

    Hey, don't worry about it, I'm not trying to complain about the question, I actually like it :), and found trying to resolve the problem with new parameters fun ;), so thanks for that.

  4. Yes, it's been a loooonnnngggg day for me too (and oh look it's 2:30 and I have to work tomorrow -_- , so I'm not going to get into an argument about quantum physics. But if you say things can't be truly random, that is a paradox, since then how can the god's answers be truly random?

    And my question is a perfectly well-formed yes-no question, just not one that can be answered.either always truly or falsely.

    I have no qualms with clarifications/additions...it's usually better to make sure the question is clear before dropping hints. ;)^_^

  5. How will you choose such a random number?

    Will you roll some dice?

    What if they know how the dice will happen to land when you decide to roll them?

    What if you decide to throw away the first roll and roll a second time --- what if they know how the dice will land at the second time?

    What if for each of your possible choices, they know how every coin flip, dice roll, wheel spin, etc will turn out based on having tons of information, the laws of physics, and assuming we live in a world of causes and effects.

    Your number can only be 0, 1 or 2 though, since you get 3 questions, and you need to save one question to ask about the sky.

    I think trying to find questions that cannot be answered is not that helpful to finding the logical solution to the overall puzzle - but you are doing a good job thinking of possible paths of thought.

    It's exactly due to my familiarity with the laws of physics, especially quantum physics, that I assert, as Heisenberg would, that there are things that are unknowable. The future is probabilistic, not deterministic. No matter how omniscient these gods are, they can not know based on the laws of physics and the universe we live in.

    The question is not asking about something that will actually happen, it's something that hypothetically could happen. So even if we grant the existence of Maxwell's demon and break the uncertainty rule and allow them to predict the future of any random physical event, the event is not something that actually will occur, it's rather a family of events that could occur, and it is not specified which member will actually be the one in question. It is not a paradox because it not self-contradictory, but rather is not truly answerable in a way that is certain to be either true or false.

    And no, I didn't switch around the conclusions. :P

  6. The way I understand it is they are God's, they know everything, they know both the Random Gods pattern and where he is in that pattern. They know what the Random God will answer even though it be random as if the random God had prepared beforehand a sheet of paper that says the first time I will answer it Da, the second time Da, the third time Ya. Of course the values on the paper are random in every sense that the word "random" is random

    Right, but I'm adding an extra hypothetical random, i.e., one that is not on the sheet of paper, that is hypothetically at some point which is randomly determined (and independent of the random god's 'random') if I ask that question what will he say. I.e. if I randomly pick a point on that paper...

    And I don't care how omniscient these gods supposedly are...there are some things that are just unknowable...or do I need herr Heisenberg to let loose the hounds? ;P

    However, if you want to specify that questions are could be unanswerable are disallowed, fine...

    Ask A, "If I ask you if B is the random god, would you say ja?" If he says ja, then either A or B is the random god. If he says da, either A or C.

    Ask the one you know is not the random god, "If I ask you if A is the random god, would you say ja?", if he says ja A is the random god, if da, the other one.

    Finally ask one of the non-random gods: "Does ja mean yes?" If ja, he's the truth teller, if da he's the liar.

  7. But we claimed that the other God's know his answer, so therefore with that question you could get the two you ask saying yes , or the two you ask saying no, or different answers for each.

    They know his pattern, but since I specify it is random at which point in the pattern I'd ask the question, they cannot know which his answer will be.

  8. Okay, let me get this straight. We're assuming:

    1) Random means the god will randomly answer YES or NO regardless of the question, not will randomly answer truthfully or not.

    2) The gods all know what random's YES/NO pattern will be.

    Ask two of them: "If I ask the random god a random number of questions, then ask him 'Is the sky blue', will he answer the ja/da equivalent of YES?

    This will tell you who the random god is since only the random god will be able to answer. Ask the one (or one of them if both couldn't answer): "Does da mean YES?" If he answers da, it's the truthteller, if he answers ja, he's the liar.

    This is not a paradox, it is a strategy that utilizes the fact that random is random ;).

  9. If it's truly random, there is no way they can answer every question...but if you want to assume they pre-agreed and memorized the lie/truth pattern of the Random teller...

    I.e, alternatively...

    If I ask you n more questions and then for the (n+1)th question asked "is the sky blue?", would you say the ja or da equivalent of 'yes'? Or, "If I ask you an infinite number of questions and one of those questions is "Is the sky blue", would you say...etc.

  10. One issue is that you don't which (da or ja) means yes and which means no.

    I meant whatever they answer will mean yes, since truth teller will truthfully answer 'yes' and liar would say 'no' to "is the sky blue", but he'd lie to this question and hence answer 'yes'.

    Will they try to be tricky and answer the question as "If I ask you a question will you answer with either da or ja?" True would say yes, False no and Random either. So assuming you can pose a question the Random can't answer, I would change the first question to "If I ask you next 'Is the sky blue', how will you respond?"

    Now, I'm assuming that no matter what question you pose they will all be able to answer, so I'm still stumped for now.

    If it's truly random, there is no way they can answer every question...but if you want to assume they pre-agreed and memorized the lie/truth pattern of the Random teller...

    ...is you

    ;). Ask: "If I knew which one of the three you were, then what would would I say you would answer to the question 'is the sky blue?'" to two of them, then follow up as above.

  11. Assuming if you ask a god a question they can't answer, they'll say nothing or something completely different that means, like, 'error'...

    Ask two of them "If I ask you next 'Is the sky blue', will you answer da or ja?"

    If one can't answer, he is the random answerer, otherwise both will answer which ever is yes and the third is the random.

    Third question, ask one that answered yes to the first question, "Is the sky blue?" to discern if liar or truth teller.

  12. ...To the letter...Orin’s mind reached, and he felt something click into place. “...Come this way...not be on this day...”

    The other agents were on a similar line, it appeared. Confidently they approached the selected plants. As her “babies” yielded the sought-after keys to the agents’ eager palms, an expression of pain shot across her face and she doubled over.

    Captain Wraith grinned at the woman as the locks were undone. “Looks like we w-i-n,” he quipped, and Orin stepped towards the gate.

    “Nooo!” the woman cried, clutching her midsection. Using her last bit of strength, she threw out her arm and summoned the power of nature.

    Vines flew up and wrapped themselves around Orin’s legs and torso. He grunted and jerked against them, but they held him firmly in place.

    Letting out a high-pitched laugh, the woman crumpled to her knees, breathing heavily. “You...won’t...get past...I...won’t...let you...

    Suddenly Orin sensed a green glow and turned. The young man they had met before was coming towards them, surrounded by a green aura.

    It’s all right, Ivy,” said the young man in a halcyon tone.

    With concentrated effort, the woman crawled towards him. She clung to his leg and stared up at him with hungry eyes. “Master...

    He placed a gentle hand atop her head and nodded. “You did well. You may rest now”. He stroked her red hair slowly, and as he did so, her image wavered and then seemed to disintegrate into a million green particles, which scattered outward for a decisecond before being drawn back and assimilated into the young man’s green glow.

    The vines around Orin unanimated and fell limply to the ground. He took a step towards the green aura-ed young man. “We defeated your minions, now it’s your turn.”

    The young man smiled. His own form wavered and then stretched horizontally into a green mass, from which six head shapes emerged. The six heads moved away from each other, and the forms of six identical young men proceeded to surround the group.

    “Which one is the real one?” an agent asked, his glance vacillating furtively between the six figures.

    Orin frowned. They appeared identical in every way he could tell...they had the same height, build, hair cut, features, skin tone, clothing, accessories...wait...

    “Umi,” he said to the control center. “Their bracelets, there appears to be an inscription. Can you magnify the image you’re receiving from us and read them?”

    There was only the slightest delay before the images were transmitted to him and the rest of the agents. The inscriptions read:

    (Pirate’s execution unchanging) (Not old, borrowed or blue)

    (Nuts’ companion + not the fairer half unchanging) (Earl grey or chamomile)

    (Spanish ‘the’) (up to date, made fair) over (Latin ‘you’)

    (Line) over (moderate + task)

    (Sunday service) (severity) (sneeze - second person pronoun)

    (Sixth state) (French ‘life’, made fair) over (not from)

    “Good thinking,” the captain smiled at him, then stroked his stubbly chin. “Based on what we’ve seen so far, the doubles are probably booby-trapped in some way and I’m going to guess that guessing is not a good option. So...which of these things is not like the others...”

  13. Ooohhhhhh...that's what you meant...and I'm pretty sure you said "border" before... :wacko:

    Nah, Wolfie's not my type...besides, I'm a one-superbeing type of demon cat and currently my heart's been claimed by a more mischievous player...;)

    You should probably call it though, before the god of off-topicness takes over the thread :P.

  14. @phaze: it's only obvious due to your blatant staking of a claim on Benedict Cumberbatch :P

    And hey, if you're a girl, your significant other might not mind you 'experimenting', as long as he is allowed to 'observe' ;P.

    • Upvote 1
  15. Oh, I had actually pretty much forgotten about this, but *shrug*

    It's not equally probable that Monty picks all of the remaining doors in the second round as the goat door, even assuming he's attempting to be fair and impartial. If he's being fair, he picks one of the remaining doors which has a goat with equal opportunity to open. You have received information from the first round which should be taken into account.

  16. Sorry, I've been fighting a (mostly losing) battle with a virus, and going though some strange things...and struggling with what I think are called *cough* emotions...(yes, I know, the Imperturbable Society of Machiavellian Princes is going to have to revoke my membership), so there's going to be a delay :(. I'll try to get the next segment up sometime when my head stops trying to explode.

    For those who haven't gotten the wordplay yet, it's pretty literal ;).

    Thanks for your patience.

  17. Yes, the agents determined, the three locks were indeed distinctive and would require the three separate keys.

    Meanwhile, Orin ran over the woman's lines in his mind once more. The second stanza stirred something of recollection in him...there was a similar phrase he'd heard before, he believed, something that seemed appropriate to this entire venture...there's no...in..

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