Yoruichi-san

Yep, lol

Yeah, if the ML comes out, he/she will definitely be killed at night...if he/she doesn't, the mafia may have to waste time trying to get him/her lynched...hmmm...this means that we would know that the mafia were within the people who voted to lynch him/her, b/c they knew he/she was innocent. So it is definitely better for the ML to stay secret... I don't think I was attacking GC, for defense or otherwise. what happened was this: I knew GC was lying about having evidence, and I realized that it had the effect of making the other innocents suspect me for no good reason and go looking for the nonexistent evidence. The only reason I saw that he would want this is if he was a mafioso trying to divert suspicion away from the mafiosos. After suspecting him of being a mafioso, I began to search for evidence to confirm this suspicion, and the more I looked at the evidence, the more suspicious I became...and I shared my observations/analysis. He made counterarguments, and I counter-countered...;P Yeah...I don't know what's up with the warlock...I hope it means he/she can blow up mafia now... Edit: Yeah, anyways, I will think more about it as well...

Haha...but this is only true if what they talk about is rubbish...I dunno, maybe it's because I'm a scientist, who goes to seminars (lectures) and listens to people talk about new discoveries and stuff, but if what a person talks about makes sense and can help me understand/see things I didn't see before, then I think that person is great . The more insight they have, the more they will talk, and the more I want to hear!

Hi all, I know I have said a lot, but please, please, please read my posts! I have not been trying to defend myself, since there is nothing to defend against...I have not done anything. What I have been doing is trying to make observations about the evidence and my analysis of it. Granted, I *guess* it is possible for me to be wrong , but I know my logic is sound...and logic is what will win this for the innocents. The mafia will try to hide by pulling the curtain over your eyes and confusing the issue by being loud and trying to cast suspicion on innocents, but if we try to find the truth through logic (like how I realized BB was the MoS), we *will* win.

That's *exactly* my point...why GC absolutely could not risk letting PG live, at the risk of being blown up himself...he knew that if she lived, she would check him, so he had to kill her and take the 1/5 (or was it 1/6) chance that he would get blown up to the 100% chance that she would discover he was lying if she checked you. He probably had not originally planned to have to end up voting for her, but it was just another "plan" that went wrong... And I did not *dump suspicion* on anyone, I am simply making observations about the evidence and giving my analysis of it. GC is the one who tried to "dump suspicion" on me by accusing me of being one of the mafiosos with *absolutely no evidence* at all, and he did it by *lying* about having evidence. I am sorry, but doing that makes him the most suspicious of all, and the way he did it with the clever little spoiler makes him the most devious, and therefore I think he is the most dangerous baddie to have around. And yes, I am using "he" instead of "you" because I am now convinced that GC is indeed a mafioso and therefore nothing I say will affect his actions. I am speaking directly to the innocents left with me and hoping you will listen and ally with me to win this for the innocents. GC tried to cast suspicion on me, and it not only failed, but alerted my suspicions about him. When he realized it had failed, he tried to back down and convince me that he was an innocent, which I can't believe after making these observations. He has now realized that he can't convince me of his innocence and has therefore gone back to trying to cast the suspicion on me. I have tried to put my observations/reasoning as clearly as I can (I admit I am a little hurried and really sleepy XP), and as I have said, I have faith in my fellow innocents. I don't know when Unreality is going to leave for the weekend, so I leave you until next week with this: I know of my own innocence, so I didn't hesitate to call GC's bluff. He wavers all over the place with his assertions/accusations. I think it's pretty clear...now we should try to figure out who the other mafia are...like I said, I think CL and johnson are mafia, but I really am unsure about the last one... Good night, and have a great weekend all! (Including you Unreality )

Ha! Yes, your plan *did* go horribly wrong: I called your bluff, and you couldn't deliver, demonstrating your own guilt... And the more I think about the bomb thing, the more I think it confirms your guilt rather than your innocence... Like Unreality said in his "tips" section, it may be worth it for the mafia to go after the bomb...and the best time to do this is *the first day*, since there will be the most people to spread out the risk of blowing up across, and, since the first day lynching is usually a "jumping on the bandwagon" thing, it is the most likely that the mafia would get enough votes so that they could "change their minds" at the last moment, like I said...unfortunately for you, before you had a chance of changing your vote, PG managed to convince others to change theirs, and you couldn't lose your chance to get rid of the bomb, because, especially after she came out with being the bomb, the innocents wouldn't lynch her again, and the mafia would have to shoulder all the risk of getting rid of her yourselves, instead of dispersing it among innocents and QAs like the lynching did... ...plus, for you, who was one of the most vocal in trying to lynch her (besides BB, who was obviously trying to save himself), it was most risky to let her live because she would most likely check on one of your statements, and since she had come out, she could freely say you were lying and identify you as a mafioso. I'm sorry GC, but now that you've alerted me to be suspicious of you, you can't get out of it now...

No, one # means one word...

Lol...but I don't want it to be easier...I think it is exactly the right difficulty...people have been getting these at what I think is a good pace...;P

Yeah, we will So I'm thinking the mafiosos are GC, CL, and johnson (not sure about the fourth one) I'm pretty sure CP is innocent, and since Dawh is like me in not randomly making accusations and thinking logically before he posts and giving deductions/observations that help the innocents, I think he is probably innocent as well. I think either GC or CL is the bankroller...they've been arguing very conspicuously the entire time, but neither has really been in danger of lynching. So when the bankroller dies, the other looks innocent because he/she can claim they were against the other the whole time... Actually, looking at the last vote, I think it is probably GC, since both CL and johnson voted for him. As for who I think we should lynch first(*sniff* I'm still a pacifist at heart...;P) I would go with GC, since he is the most devious, and if he is the bankroller, we would find out... To be honest, I don't know if GC thought out his strategy of fingering me as much as I analyzed it, but I do think he was trying to cast suspicion on me. Without a *shred* of evidence, he made people suspect me and try to pick out red herrings...the spoiler box was a nice touch...it made it seem like more of a puzzle, and this being Brainden, after all, no one can resist trying to solve a puzzle...O_o I'm really glad you guys were smart enough not to be pulled in too much by it! I have faith in my fellow innocents . And sorry if I got a little worked up w/ the Holmes/Moriarty analogy...I get excited when I'm going after a baddie...like I think I declared my love for the warlock with *a few too many* exclamation marks...;P Edit: Actually, I realized maybe he just picked me to finger out because I was the only one not online at the time to defend myself, lol...

Lol...ok, I get the point. I guess Scott was the QA after all...or a third option is that it could have been pw0nzd, and BB was the "last" QA to join up, but then I would have thought that he would have been included in the Sphinx kill...like Frost killed the ninja before being offed by the mafia...

Nice ...I hope you're disappearing into the alley to go spy on GC trying to plot my demise...;P Edit: Speaking of which, where is this so-called "evidence" he promised? The others didn't do enough work for him, so there has not been enough time for him to make up something himself?

Hmm...another thing I noticed was that strange was the fact that the thief stole from ejohnson...since it's Night/Day 3, the inspector gets PMed a QA name, not a mafia name, and the spy only works on even days...so there's no reason to steal an identity...unless the thief is trying to make one of his/her cohorts look innocent by stealing from them... Well, I'm going to be out for about five hours...I hope I get back in time, but *please* don't do anything rash, like Unreality said, this decision is important.

Hmm...well if you're telling the truth, then it had to be Scott...but I thought he was a computer player? Well, lol, maybe *that's* how they "found" each other on the first night...I apologize if that's the case...if not,

Yeah...I'm not sure why GC is suspicious of me...unless... Wait...wow, that's clever...if he is mafia... Okay, so there are 4 mafiosos and 5 innocents. That means the mafia have to cast suspicion on 4 innocents. Since CP just joined, it's highly unlikely they can cast suspicion on her, so the rest of us (including yours truly) have to be targeted. Since I didn't really do anything suspicious (cuz I'm not), he has a quandry...the solution: He pretends he has some clever secret evidence against some people, and "secretly" drops a name of a player. Then he leaves, saying he'll be back at some unspecified time in the future, and leaves everyone else to ponder this. So what result does this have? I realized that this has the result of making everyone suspicious of the named player, even if the player hadn't been suspicious before. They try to find the "evidence" he was talking about, seeing clues in things that aren't really there (like the match thing). Basically, he leaves everyone else to do his work for him, and find "evidence" against the named player. He can check back at certain times to see if enough "evidence" has been compiled. The worst case scenario is that no one can find any "evidence", and he's left to try to spin something himself... To be honest, I think this is very clever...the QA Moriarty fell, the Mafia Moriarty arises, huh? Well, this Holmes is ready for any number of Moriarties, so bring it! Let's see what "evidence" you come up with...

Gaaahhhh....Brandon's corpse is laughing in it's grave... Well, anyways, thanks Frozen. You are my knight in shining armor Yeah, as Unreality said, he was referring to the fact that BB hatched a clever ploy, and I saw through it... Actually, I'm pretty sure the other QA is dead, and was Mekal (as Dawh has figured out as well). Doing my best Adrian Monk impression: Here's what happened: On Night 1, Mekal (MoD?) and BB (MoS) found each other by going after KoP. On Day 1, BB was almost lynched and they both voted for PG to save his identity from being exposed...what they didn't account for was that PG was the bomb and would end up blowing up Mekal... ...This left BB (MoS) exposed to lynching, and seeing how close he had been to being lynched on Day 1, it was highly likely that he would be lynched on Day 2, so he was desperate to find the final QA. To do this, *after* the day ended, he hastily posted a "predictions" post, which was actually cleverly disguised instructions for the other QA to go after Slick. He didn't care whether or not Slick actually died, so he hid his intentions under the guise of trying to get the saving roles to protect Slick. On Night 2, if JS was the MoE, he could have queried about BB and found out he was indeed a QA, or JS might have must thought (like a lot of others, apparently XP) that BB was a QA...anyways it wouldn't hurt JS to target Slick, so he did, and the two met up. On Day 2, as expected, BB gets lynched. JS, realizing that BB wouldn't die, but would be exposed, and thus would likely be targeted by the warlock and die soon, pretends to be one of the people against BB as to not raise suspicion against himself. BB gets lynched, escapes...and finds he has been warlocked! Hehe.... On Night 3, JS finds Frozen and ends up winning it for the QA's T_T

Anyways, my original point was that there is a difference between the probability of the second coin being heads based on whether you "observe" a particular coin or whether you "observe" the phenomenon of one out of the two coins being heads, because the fact that you have "observed" something changes the probability (and differently depending on what you observed). In the first case, you only "observed" one coin, which now has a probability of 1 of being heads and 0 of being tails. So the probability of the second coin is still 1/2 1/2. In the second case, you "observed" a fact about both coins, and that fact (that one coin is heads) changes the probability to 1/3 2/3 since it removes the possibility of TT. The arguments for 1/2 were the first case, and the arguments for 1/3 were the second case. This problem, as far as I can tell, is the second case.

Umm, sorry for being confusing. I understand where you are coming from, but the way I see it, it's not the wording, it's how you read the wording: "You observe one of the two is heads" can be read either: "You observe one of the two is heads" -i.e. you observe one coin, or "You observe one of the two is heads" -i.e, you observe the phenomenon that one out of two coins is heads...I know the perspective of a person who has not suffered through as much quantum physics as I have ;P this does not make much sense, since when usually talking about coins, "observe" means to "see", but this is not necessarily the case in probability theory, especially when applied to physics, for example, you can't "see" an electron...but scientists "observe" phenomenon by measuring certain properties which are indicative of that phenomenon... So in summary, I apologize for being confusing and inconsiderate of the perspective of normal people, but I don't think I was wrong in what I said, based on my own experiences (which have been difficult...which is probably why I feel the need to say this :/)

Thank you, high compliment . Actually, it was really clever...this is really fun...which is why I'd *really* like not to die tonight... O_O Okay...I'll shut up now ;P

No, but you didn't observe a particular coin, what you observed (or in this case, was told) was that *one* of the two coins was heads, sorry, I guess the phrasing makes it confusing (I'm used to talking about this in terms of electrons and wavefunctions...), I guess think of it in terms of a computer simulation of a coin toss where the results screen tells you that one of the coins (not a particular coin) was heads...

Haha...well, like *I* said, I wasn't on you until you suspiciously began ordering the QA's around...;P

Warlock, whoever you are, I <3 you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And was I right or was I right? ;P But, hmm....crap....feeling more like a target....would it be selfish of me to ask for some protection...

Lol, no real anime? I agree with most of your list, Itachi-san, but I have to put Baccano! somewhere at the top (especially if you count the specials). Ergo Proxy and RahXephon would probably make my list as well...Eva's my fave, though, since it was one of the first real animes (besides dubbed Sailor Moon on tv) that I saw, and it *totally* changed the way I look at things...

...then everyone would know who you were...??? Lol, sorry, and I wasn't trying to lynch you from the word go...I was all for lynching no one last night, remember? I have nothing against you...I just can't ignore the clues, sorry... As an aside, I think we should have a "fairy godmother" role for Mafia V, which grants the wish of one person a night to save someone else or something...although the pming could get confusing...

Oh, common...all the pieces were falling in place...don't stop now!

Yeah...I say give Dawh a break...I might need one someday ...some of us who are not on summer vacation (and would like to keep our jobs ;P) can't be on-call... Well, since the GR is dead, the other QA's will probably try to go after the Sphinx, and with all the cat clues (which may be red herrings, but I dunno...) I would suggest protecting Kat... I don't know who the mafia are going after, I doubt they would go after GC, seeing how he was instrumental in getting rid of the bomb for them... ...or I have this ominous foreboding that by seeing through BB's clever strategy I just painted a giant target on my own head...*crap*