This makes a lot of sense. The fewest number of moves to sort a sequence must be at least the length of the sequence minus the length of the largest monotone subsequence. At the same time, if you have a monotone subsequence of a certain length, then you can simply move the remaining DVDs into place. In other words, the fewest number of moves to sort a sequence is exactly the length of the sequence minus the length of the largest monotone subsequence.
The captain is once again correct! When I revisited this thread, I immediately thought of the Erdos-Szekeres theorem as well. Each of the shelves containing BMAD's DVD collection must have a monotonic subsequence of at least length 4, which means the upper bound for minimum moves is 7. If we can find a sequence with no length 5 monotonic subsequence, then it should prove definitively that the maximum number of minimum moves to sort BMAD's collection is exactly 7.
Of course, CaptainEd's already beat us to the punch.
I think the case is finally closed. Wouldn't you say? I've been awake for far too long. I need reassurance.