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Rat Hunt Mafia


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#121 plasmid

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 12:47 AM

Careful. You don't know how MiKi will respond. If she targets you for the kill tonight, you could be dead.

It doesn't matter if I die, as long as you and aura vote to lynch MiKi the entire undercover team (including dead ones) still wins.


wait. MiKi can't target Aura because of her role. That leaves me and Plasmid, and she'll go after me because of your statement "I probably won't save Flamebirde."

That's what we call WIFOM: "Wine in front of me", a classic scene from the movie Princess Bride. In short, MiKi knows I might be lying anyway, so it doesn't really matter what I say. I just threw that in there to toy with her a bit :) Edit: Aura is also still a potential target. If aura gets targeted by the night kill, then she wouldn't be alive the next day to tell us who killed her. And technically I think the night kill comes from the undercover team instead of a particular undercover player anyway.

Edited by plasmid, 29 September 2011 - 12:54 AM.

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#122 MissKitten

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 02:26 AM

First clue was the tone of the response. Flamebirde's response was what you would expect from a legit mobster overwhelmed by a complex scenario and determining the outcome of the game. If he was a rat and just acting, then he did such a phenomenal job that he deserves a shot at pulling off a miracle. But that alone wouldn't be enough to force me to pick you to bluff against.

The second and more important clue is that Flamebirde responded first. I don't know whether you just didn't have a chance to reply before he did, but replying first would not be expected rat behavior. The second rat would know that aura and I were going to cooperate against araver, and would wait to see what the third mobster does. If the third mobster doesn't go along with my plan, then neither does the second rat, and the baddies have a chance of flash-voting to kill off a mobster and would end up winning the game. If the third mobster goes along with my plan, then the second rat goes along with the plan too in an effort to not reveal that they're the second rat. If Flamebirde were the second rat, I don't think he would have been willing to respond first out of you two.



You weren't foolish enough to confirm overtly that you're the second rat, but your response to my bluff still reinforces my suspicion. If you were the third mobster, I would have expected you to be more like "WTF?!? I'm not the rat, go back and recheck your math." Or at the very least, "What makes you think I'm a rat? I didn't do anything." It's subtle, but the way you phrased your response now is more like what the rat would say.


Actually, I was indeed busy from about 6:00 CDT to the time I posted, and before that I had homework. [Blame high school. *glares at homework*] So I wasn't really in a position to post before the time I did. So I don't really think that's "evidence" against me.

Also, in response to how I responded, over the internet, it's probably not very obvious, but that's how I act IRL. If I'm accused of something, whether I really did it or not, I always just kinda raise an eyebrow and say "Oh really? And how exactly did I do that?" And I have friends on BD who you could ask if you don't believe me, so I don't think this is "evidence" against me either.

[And just as a side note, I'm not really all that good at word riddles and whatnot...]
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Chocolate is proof that God wanted us to be happy.

So you want a fight with intent to kill? Then come fight me! It's here in my bow, that intent to kill you love so much! ~ Uryu Ishida

... ~ Nova-kun

Society needs to learn how to adapt, or humanity is screwed. ~ MiKi, aka MissKitten, aka myself


#123 plasmid

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 02:36 AM

Still, if I ask myself whether the second rat is Flamebirde or MiKi, all available evidence points to MiKi. BTW, I wasn't basing my hunch on the fact that you weren't able to reply first, it was based on the fact that Flamebirde DID reply first, which the second rat shouldn't do. Even though Flamebirde doesn't seem to be completely abreast of the situation, araver certainly could have coached him if he were a conspirator.

Time to play WIFOM. You've got one chance to guess who I'm going to save tonight, good luck.

Aura and Flamebirde, in case I choose one of you to save and she ends up night-killing me, be sure to lynch her tomorrow.
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#124 MissKitten

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 03:07 AM

Of course, Araver may not have been available. Before, when I was in a BTSC, a lot of times my BTSC members weren't in the same time zone or something, so I was alone. And they were alone when I was asleep. I dunno, it could happen.

And one more thing: have you ever considered that maybe flame wants to frame me? I mean, she's kept pretty quiet the entire game, right? Isn't it possible that by keeping quiet, you were "inclined" [I guess that's the word...] to think I was the rat, because you had been offered no "evidence" by flame? Like Luna Lovegood's dad in Hary Potter: If you can't prove that something doesn't exist, then you're forced to believe it does. So because you have no evidence of flame being the rat, you're more inclined to think I'm the rat, because several subtle glitches in my posts can be warped and twisted and turned against me. Another analogy: it's like that one strategy in debate [I can't remember what it's called....] where you fudge the opponent's arguments to make it look like they're taking a position that they're really not. Then you easily defeat that position, and manage to make it look like you've won the debate. So it's totally possible that flame could be using me as a decoy, correct?
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Chocolate is proof that God wanted us to be happy.

So you want a fight with intent to kill? Then come fight me! It's here in my bow, that intent to kill you love so much! ~ Uryu Ishida

... ~ Nova-kun

Society needs to learn how to adapt, or humanity is screwed. ~ MiKi, aka MissKitten, aka myself


#125 plasmid

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 04:10 AM

Araver was the first to respond when I started the standoff, so he had a chance to offer strategy to anyone who acted later. Also, that was the most pivotal point in the game where strategizing between the rats would be absolutely critical, it's very hard to believe that he would have let that pass without giving any instructions to Flamebirde.

Flamebirde has been quiet, but so have you. Believe me, I've looked for any clues that would suggest that araver was having an influence on Flamebirde and found none. If you'd like to try to find incriminating evidence, then be my guest. The actual lynch vote is still not for a while. For now though, I know full well that I'm working with limited information, but at the end of the day you have to make a choice.
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#126 plasmid

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 04:49 AM

If you have any thoughts that Mr. Gray could be bad, lynch MiKi

By the way, aura and flamebirde, remember that both araver and I agreed (ostensibly for different reasons) that the Boss was killed early in the game.

How did araver know that the Boss was dead so early?
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#127 MissKitten

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 02:23 PM

@plasmid I would say it's because the Boss hasn't outed anybody else. I mean, how did you figure out that the Boss was dead? It's been six days and the Boss hasn't said anything to help the mobsters along. Wouldn't he have said something if he was still alive?
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Chocolate is proof that God wanted us to be happy.

So you want a fight with intent to kill? Then come fight me! It's here in my bow, that intent to kill you love so much! ~ Uryu Ishida

... ~ Nova-kun

Society needs to learn how to adapt, or humanity is screwed. ~ MiKi, aka MissKitten, aka myself


#128 plasmid

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 04:29 PM

Night is practically over, so it's time for my last minute revelation.

Maurice's post as the Boss makes it look like MiKi is Mr Gray (the blocker). If that's true, it doesn't matter who I try to save. But I considered the possibly that Maurice was lying about MiKi's real role. We know that one of the rats was the Boss' son (the redirector) so I still had to prepare for the possibility that MiKi is actually the Boss' son. If that were the case, she has one good way out of this situation: she can redirect my save onto herself, then night-kill herself, to make it two rats against two mobsters.

I countered this tactic by not acting at all.

That way, if MiKi really is the Boss' son and tried to execute that plan, she would end up night-killing herself while redirecting a no-action instead of a save onto herself -- game over.

But, if Maurice was telling the truth, then MiKi has the blocking ability. It wouldn't matter who I targetted to save, so I stuck with the plan of not saving anyone in case she's the Boss' son. And I'm pretty sure that I'll be the one she NKs because I showed no doubt that I would lynch her, so I have to tell you all this now before I end up dead.

Here's the important point: she will try to argue that she has been outed as the blocker already but no one was listed in the night post as blocking my save, which is what she would do if she were a rat. The real reason she did not appear in the night post as blocking was because there was no action for her to block.

So, aura and flame:
1) Do not overlook the evidence in post #126 incriminating araver and MiKi as having BTSC. Maurice said this in night 1 after I revealed my plans that depended on the Boss. If the rats knew he really was the Boss (because MiKi really is Mr Gray and is a rat with BTSC) then they would certainly kill him night 1, which is what actually happened, and they would know that the Boss was dead then.

2) Do not trust the argument that the absence of a block against me proves that MiKi is an innocent Mr Gray - I did not act at all for the reasons above in case she's actually the Boss' son.

3) If I'm about to get NK'ed, that's more evidence that MiKi's the second rat. If either aura or flame were the second rat, neither of them would want to NK me because I've made it clear that I'll vote to lynch MiKi and not vote to lynch them.
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#129 Molly Mae

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 04:32 PM

Post is gonna be a tad late as my phone is updating. =/
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A recipe for honey-pickled apples


Awards:

Bonanova Gold Star

Spoiler for Molly's Rules to Live By

#130 Molly Mae

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Posted 29 September 2011 - 04:57 PM

Night 3: Egress

The police didn't fire. Nobody fired. The gangsters walked slowly to the car and climbed inside. They left Araver right outside and Aura pulled the trigger. As soon as Araver fell to the ground, the police opened fire. The car took off and rounded a corner, but Aura had been fatally shot. She died before the escape.

Mr Tech set to work scanning the car and was a bit surprised by what he found.

"Oh, sh--"


Host: Yuli and Molly Mae
1. plasmid
2. Flamebirde
3. MiKi
4. 'Cat'astrophe - DEAD - Lynched D1 and found to be a legitimate gangster
5. KlueMaster - DEAD - Killed N2
6. maurice - DEAD - Killed N1
7. Auramyna - DEAD - Killed N3
8. Araver - Bound and gagged and used as a hostage, since he was an undercover cop

D3 ends at 10 am Central time tomorrow.
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A recipe for honey-pickled apples


Awards:

Bonanova Gold Star

Spoiler for Molly's Rules to Live By




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