Glycereine Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 gah sorry maurice I mixed two things up. Doc is the one that can't die at shootut, but if he would have someone else will die? I don't see a possibility where someone lives... Especially after the answer to question 3 was correct... Has to be indie ability. Either way there was a tie though and araver created it unecessarily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curr3nt Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 Not necessarily. You are killing me Yoda. Let me rephrase the question. Would vote modifiers show up in the day post if they changed the outcome of what happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glycereine Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 it's almost certain that Araver's vote counted for 1 only. The reason I say that is that there was a tie and the only other possibilies are for wyatt to have changed someones vote to 0 or 2. Both of which would have also caused a tie (but Hirkala was in the tie) or for billy to have doubled his vote (which is only a chance and would have just added another person to the tie). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glycereine Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 anyways it doesn't particularly matter why hirk lived. @Texas Jack - I recommend Araver as your target @Morgan Earp - if you get a kill I recommend EDM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curr3nt Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 it's almost certain that Araver's vote counted for 1 only. The reason I say that is that there was a tie and the only other possibilies are for wyatt to have changed someones vote to 0 or 2. Both of which would have also caused a tie (but Hirkala was in the tie) or for billy to have doubled his vote (which is only a chance and would have just added another person to the tie). What I expected to happen: Ike: 2 "shots" - 1 from person, 1 from role Hirkala: 2 "shots" - 1 from Oboe, 1 from Araver Wyatt changing the shot on Doc to x0 would have no effect so wouldn't make the day post. Billy Clanton (Billy C for now on) "shooting" for x0 instead of x2 would have no effect so wouldn't show up. Billy C "shooting" for x2 and the indy lynch saving diety nullifing all "shots" to a 12 way tie at 0 would have had no effect on the outcome so wouldn't show up. Maybe the coin toss landed on it's side... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curr3nt Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 anyways it doesn't particularly matter why hirk lived. @Texas Jack - I recommend Araver as your target @Morgan Earp - if you get a kill I recommend EDM Araver I can see. EDM is kind of a long shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glycereine Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 well assuming morgan even listens to me its still only a 1/3 chance he gets a kill which is why I listed her after Araver. @MORGAN How about this only if you get a kill use it on EDM, if it's choice then do something else to someone else. now it's only 1/6 kill on EDM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 gah sorry maurice I mixed two things up. Doc is the one that can't die at shootut, but if he would have someone else will die? I don't see a possibility where someone lives... Especially after the answer to question 3 was correct... Has to be indie ability. Either way there was a tie though and araver created it unecessarily. If Doc had the most shots on him (or lost the tie) then someone else would have died, barring lynch save. You are killing me Yoda. Let me rephrase the question. Would vote modifiers show up in the day post if they changed the outcome of what happened. Sorry I am. Try not to be vague I do (oops Do or not do. There is no try) If there was a tie I would indicate so by using words like lucky, random, etc. Otherwise, the vote manipulation would need to be deduced. Not necessarily meant - not explicitly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curr3nt Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 Question... If you were a goodie and you got a redirect action and didn't know who anyone else was...what would you do? I would target someone and make them target themself. I was very much expecting Slick to be Ike since the odds of both Morgan and Ike targeting the same person would be less likely. I find it doubly odd that Hirkala was targeted by Curly Bill and Turkey Creek. Would it make as much sense for the baddies to make goodies target themself? Both targets for redirect were also targeted for block. This seems to be too much of a coincedence. ----- Sorry for the bather but I am just getting my thoughts out. My one idea went totally weird and I am at a loss of what to do now. Too many questions without answers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
araver Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 The night-post is not what I expected: - The tie between Hirk and Ike was very probable (unless Glyc or benjer were Ike). - Hirk losing the tie over Ike had a 50% probability - Hirk surviving that lynch was ... completely unexpected. I don't want to disclose my motives during the night. But I would suggest for Texas Jack to not act until he understands why Hirk was not outed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glycereine Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 Explain your vote change then araver. You prevented a sure baddie lynch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curr3nt Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 Putting my night action in and taking a break. Bit frustrated with how things went and very much feeling my lack of experience. Now I know why Blah was enjoying the show so much. He must have seen that day post coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 I hate how long it takes until day and night end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hirkala Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 (edited) Wow, that was... WHAT? I am so confused... I, uh, think I should be dead... So............ Why aren't I? O_o Oh and Araver... You'll get yours... Someday. I don't agree with venge kills, but this very may well warrant one. That was a cheap shot (pun intended.) At least we realize now that you are a baddie and you will be dead soon. Thanks for helping us out there (even though I'm not really sure what the heck just happened...) Yeah, yeah... You are gonna sling some bull about how you are not a baddie and you have some info about me cause you are a goodie role and you found out some blah blah blah blllleeeeeeeeeeeeggghhhhhhhhh..... Everyone else... PLEASE don't believe that. The plan was pretty solid! Props to curr3nt for thinking of it... You got potential, kid! Everyone else went along with it. Yes, I had some apprehension about it (and I think, by the day post, my apprehension was justified) but it was solid. And even the worries I had (a baddie flash-voting) came out in our favor. Really wish I could have seen araver's face when he read the post and I didn't end up dead. Probably would've been priceless... Of course, my face was pretty priceless when I A) saw araver's cheap shot and B) saw that I made it through that. I honestly don't know how to explain me still being alive, but I promise you all (not you baddies, screw you) that it's a good thing! We got one. Now we need 3 more... EDM seems like a good one to interrogate tomorrow. Of course, the baddies will probably kill me tonight cause they are pissed about me not dying in the lynch, but hey, what can you do? EDIT: Day post, not night post... Edited February 2, 2011 by Hirkala Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glycereine Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 it is possible that hirk is bad not araver. I'm still waiting on a response from araver about why he would throw out a sure baddie lynch though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hirkala Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 It is also possible that curr3nt could be bad as well... As conspiratorial as it seems, there is always the possibility that this whole thing was a setup. Look what it did... We got NO information from anyone. The only lead we have is that araver is most likely a baddie. He could be good, but if he were, why would he change his vote... Without explanation... AT THE LAST MINUTE? That was a flash-vote in its purest form. Any goodie with a modicum of sense could see that the plan was a relatively good one. We would have gotten a baddie for sure if everyone had gone along with it, that much was obvious. So, if araver thought I was bad, why would he risk a flash-vote to take me out and risk losing out on killing a baddie? It doesn't make sense! Unless... Unless araver is a baddie... He could have waited until after the guaranteed lynch on Ike occurred and then, if he were worried about being NKed, he could have outed himself as whatever he is now pretending to be and gotten me lynched the next night. It would have killed Ike and created an enormous barrage of bullets aimed at me. But, he didn't... He used a sneaky underhanded technique and tried to kill me off. And for some unknown reason (yes, especially to me) it didn't work. Now, araver has no idea what to do. His whole plan is shot. So, getting back to curr3nt... I'm not 100% that he is good. The whole plan was designed to take out Ike. But, could it not have been a ploy to not only wipe out a goodie with a cheapshot AND get us to trust curr3nt? If that is the case, I would say it worked... Even I trust curr3nt after all of that. But, this is Mafia, after all. There is still that tiny shadow of a doubt... Is it possible that curr3nt and araver set this up for this purpose alone? Maybe araver was confident that he could kill me off, weasel his way out of it, surviving the night, and not be lynched until Day 2. That would give them 2 goodies dead. AND a trusted "goodie" in curr3nt. Now, I'm not saying curr3nt is bad, I am simply saying it's a possiblity. And we should all keep an eye out for him. You never know... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
araver Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 @Glyc - I did not prevent a sure baddie lynch (since we had an inactive it was an almost sure baddie lynch, but that's not the point). As some of you might have observed, curr3nt's plan to lynch Ike can work on any day, not just D1. Now, re-read the role descriptions and think who is not so easy to find and kill. @Hirk - That was not a venge kill. And we could argue about it being a cheapshot. I don't know, telling others and relying on them to do the right thing has not worked for me in the past. But here goes: @Texas Jack and / or Baddies - I've reluctantly come to the conclusion that Hirk is invulnerable to lynches. Can you take him out for us? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curr3nt Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 (edited) @Texas Jack and / or Baddies - I've reluctantly come to the conclusion that Hirk is invulnerable to lynches. Can you take him out for us? Only person that could be is the indy isn't it? If that is the case then why would the goodies want to deal with him just yet? If he is immune he didn't do anything to stop the baddie lynch, you did araver. ----- As for trusting me there isn't much more to trust. That was the only idea I had to help the goodies. Everything else I have are just questions. Likely not even the right questions. edit - you know, I am going to be screwed if I am ever a baddie in one of these games. If I seem to know what I am doing I will be surely outed as a baddie. Edited February 2, 2011 by curr3nt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
araver Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 @Curr3nt - after a few Mafias, if you get paranoid enough, you know that the word "secret" is worst nightmare a Mafia player can have. You can make assumptions about it, but you cannot really know until it comes around and it bites you. There are two types of secrets: WinCons and abilities. Secret Wincons are the absolute worst, since you get to second guess your every move and everything an Indy says. And if outed and backed in a corner, Indies usually usually lie about their WinCons and convince one side they've got compatible WinCons. That rarely works and mostly leads to Indy wins. We've got two secrets in this game - both Indy WinCon and Indy ability. I'm pretty sure the Indy ability involves somehow around being invulnerable to lynch (since Hirk was clearly not saved by the Actress). Last night, Hirk was redirected to himself and blocked. There is no way to understand him not being outed unless he has an unblockable (passive) ability that makes him invulnerable to shootings at the OK Corral. And he might have other secret abilities as well. I decided not to wait and find out. Plus, waiting can be part of his WinCon, while dying can't be part of his WinCon (he would have claimed Indy and said shoot me in N1 if that was so). @Texas Jack and the Baddies - Is that good enough for you? Or do you want to let him live and find out if he has more abilities? @Marshall White, Masters and Morgan Earp - I have to ask you all not to interfere. Don't try to save him. If anyone has a better suggestion, please tell. I can't think of anything else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curr3nt Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 Hirkala, can you help me out with a question? Araver says that the baddies redirected you on to yourself and then you were blocked. If that is true then that means you are Turkey or Turkey got lucky and targeted you too. Knowing that they made you target yourself the odds are in the favor of the baddies thinking you are Turkey. If all that is true then any spy on another Turkey would cause the baddies to think they found Texas. ... The effect of the day post makes me think that you might be the indy and Turkey did get lucky and blocked you too. Did the baddies go along with the plan because they think they have two kills now? (I didn't mention the plan before N1 so is that a bit in my favor? Doing it after N1 could have worked well for the baddies.) Then again this whole post could be considered a means of the baddies trying to find Turkey... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curr3nt Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 @Texas Jack and the Baddies - Is that good enough for you? Or do you want to let him live and find out if he has more abilities? I am questioning this. It seems to me that araver is trying to get Texas to act. Is it to prevent the goodies from killing a baddie or to steal Texas' kill? Am I playing WIFOM or being overly paranoid? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 I hate to say this because I could be wrong but I am starting to think that Hirk is a baddie because he is trying persuade us to think that araver is a baddie a little too much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EDM Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 Either he's a baddie, or a goodie.....either way, No comment....except.... GO GOODIES!!! (to show I'm still here...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curr3nt Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 I hate to say this because I could be wrong but I am starting to think that Hirk is a baddie because he is trying persuade us to think that araver is a baddie a little too much If Hirk is the baddie then how do you explain araver's flash vote and the lack of Hirk dying. Same logic accuses Gly and I since we think araver is likely a baddie too. Gly's last post was questioning Hirk too wanting a reasoning from araver, just need to see his response to araver's defense. Seems like Hirkala, Gly, araver and I are the most talkative this round. Would be nice to see others chime in with opinions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
araver Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 @curr3nt - I'm not saying Hirkala was redirected to himself by the baddies. I'm assuming Hirkala was redirected to himself by the baddies. Self-redirects are the most likely. You don't have to take my word for that. Look at it from a neutral PoV (or your point of view): 1. Assume Hirk is a goodie or the indy. Baddies don't know what is Hirk's ability. They sure as hell won't redirect him to another baddie. Least worries: redirect to himself and see the result - depending if he appears in the night-post or not you narrow down his abilities. Best case: Hirk is Masters you'll see someone trap Hirk and you'll know who to RID Recruit. 2. Assume Hirk is a baddie. Why redirect him to someone else? - A redirecter(Curly) can't be redirected to himself with visible consequences in the night-post. He can redirect himself to someone else, but that would create some weird loops and actually not get anyone redirected in the process. - A spy/RID Recruit (Johnny) redirected to someone else makes some sense, but also means a redirect lost and not a very clear cover for Hirk to be a goodie. - A baddie block (Ike) redirected to himself is kinda revealing in the night-post (and we know that did not happen). Also, a tie means Hirk is not Ike. - A baddie vote manipulator (Billy) redirected to anyone is basically the same as above - redirect lost and not a very clear cover for Hirk. Again, nothing in the redirect, the block or the night-post explain why Hirk was no outed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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