Sherlock Holmes Mafia

[MissKitten]

“I think Moriarty is acting up again, Watson.”

“Yes, Holmes, shall I get my gun?”

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stanley Hopkins was hoping to catch Holmes before he set out to stop Moriarty, but no such luck. He would have to wait to ask his questions.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Mycroft was observing London. Suddenly he saw Holmes and Watson drive by in a cab. He must have realized that Moriarty was behind all the crimes, though Mycroft had known for a while.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Wiggins and his gang had spread out over London to see if they could hear anything Mr. Holmes might find useful. The job didn’t pay well, but they all needed any money they could get.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

“Irene, I see Holmes is trying to solve this case. Go see he fails in his attempts, will you?”

“Of course, at once.”

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Blackwood was using his magic tricks to beguile his audience. How gullible they were!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Lestrade knew that Gregson was trying to solve the case before Holmes, and Gregson knew Lestrade was doing the same thing. However, they were also competing with each other, never thinking that together they would accomplish much more.

Goodies:

WINCON: capture or kill Professor Moriarty, and be the majority.

Sherlock Holmes-famous detective

-can spy 1 role from a player on odd nights

-can arrest a suspected criminal on odd nights instead of spying, but has 50% chance of failing

can ask arrested person yes or no questions

when arrested, that person cannot perform an action the next night, but can still vote for a lynch. whatever action they were doing on the night they are arrested will still be done.

-has BTSC with Dr. Watson

Dr. Watson-Sherlock Holmes's friend/roommate; is a doctor

-can save/heal 1 person per night

-has BTSC with Sherlock Holmes

Stanley Hopkins-a detective for whose career Sherlock Holmes has hope

-can make a lynch vote count for 0x, 1x, or 2x

Mycroft-Sherlock Holmes's brother

-can RID kill at night, but not two nights in a row

Wiggins-head of Baker Street Irregulars

-can spy and/or redirect an action every night

redirection is Wiggins's choice

Inspector Alec MacDonald-Scotland Yard detective

-can spy 1 role from a player each night

Inspector Athelney Jones-Scotland Yard detective

-has a night kill

Baddies:

WINCON: outlive Sherlock Holmes, Dr. Watson, and Inspector MacDonald.

Professor Moriarty-leader of all London gangs

-can spy 1 action per night-takes two hits to kill at night, can still be lynched. i.e. if targeted for a kill N1, will not be killed. but if targeted for kill N4, will be killed.

Irene Adler-criminal under Moriarty

-can help Moriarty escape if targeted for arrest. she can do this twice, but she doesn't know if its worth it or not. i.e. if she uses her ability on a day she thinks holmes will arrest moriarty, but he doesn't, she will have wasted a chance and cannot get it back.

Lord Blackwood-criminal

-can redirect a lynch vote

ALL BADDIES HAVE BTSC.

Indies:

WINCON: outlive Shelock Holmes and be the last group standing.

Inspector Lestrade-Scotland Yard detective

-can redirect target at night

Inspector Gregson-Scotland Yard detective

-can block 1 person's action on even nights

-has a kill on odd nights

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85

1. Glycereine

2. EDM

3. maurice

4. Framm18

5. woon

6. Vipe195

7. araver

8. Little Miss Sunshine

9. LJ

10. Vineetrika

11. slick

12. Harvey

[Guest]

Has N1 begun? If so when does it end?

[Vipe195]

Finally, it has begun!

[MissKitten]

yeah, N1 has started. All days and nights end at 7:00 CST.

[araver]

yeah, N1 has started. All days and nights end at 7:00 CST.

7:00 CST PM ? (which means in 2 hours from now?)

[MissKitten]

yeah, sorry!

[MissKitten]

night post in a minute.

[MissKitten]

Night 1: A Typical Night in London

Holmes watched Glycereine through his window, and learned from his amazing powers of deduction who he was. He was unaware that he was being watched by Moriarty all the time.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As Maurice was walking down the road, he saw a beautiful lady standing in the street. “Would you like to come in?” asked Irene Adler. Maurice nodded, but as soon as he crossed the threshold of her house, he felt a needle being plunged into his back. He felt woozy, and he heard Adler say, as if in a dream, "Goodbye."

[MissKitten]

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85

1. Glycereine

2. EDM

3. maurice - killed by the Baddies

4. Framm18

5. woon

6. Vipe195

7. araver

8. Little Miss Sunshine

9. LJ

10. Vineetrika

11. slick

12. Harvey

Day 1 ends 7:00 pm CST.

Edited November 30, 2010 by MissKitten

[Guest]

X X

___

[Guest]

Alright! First vote!

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85

1. Glycereine

2. EDM

3. maurice - killed by the Baddies

4. Framm18

5. woon

6. Vipe195

7. araver

8. Little Miss Sunshine

9. LJ - voted for woon

10. Vineetrika

11. slick

12. Harvey

Just for starters...

[araver]

I haven't see much action in the night-post - guess most people either didn't do anything or wasn't mentioned).

So, I'm picking one that made it to the night-post to ask questions. Glyc, what do you say?

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85

1. Glycereine

2. EDM

3. maurice - killed by the Baddies

4. Framm18

5. woon

6. Vipe195

7. araver - voted for Glycereine

8. Little Miss Sunshine

9. LJ - voted for woon

10. Vineetrika

11. slick

12. Harvey

I'll be back in a long while since it's 4am right now for me, but I'll be back to hear and change my vote if necessary.

[akaslickster]

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85

1. Glycereine

2. EDM

3. maurice - killed by the Baddies

4. Framm18

5. woon

6. Vipe195

7. araver - voted for Glycereine

8. Little Miss Sunshine

9. LJ - voted for woon

10. Vineetrika

11. slick-voting for Harvey

12. Harvey

I must vote early, as it seems my time at work will replace me otherwise. Just random voting as usual.

[Guest]

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85

1. Glycereine

2. EDM

3. maurice - killed by the Baddies

4. Framm18

5. woon

6. Vipe195

7. araver

8. Little Miss Sunshine

9. LJ

10. Vineetrika

11. slick

12. Harvey

Backups

1. NickFleming

[Framm 18]

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85

1. Glycereine

2. EDM

3. maurice - killed by the Baddies

4. Framm18 - Voting for avarer

5. woon

6. Vipe195

7. araver - voted for Glycereine

8. Little Miss Sunshine

9. LJ - voted for woon

10. Vineetrika

11. slick-voting for Harvey

12. Harvey

Consider it a welcome to mafia gift from me, since this is the first time playing with you.

[Glycereine]

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85

1. Glycereine - Voting for avarer

2. EDM

3. maurice - killed by the Baddies

4. Framm18 - Voting for avarer

5. woon

6. Vipe195

7. araver - voted for Glycereine

8. Little Miss Sunshine

9. LJ - voted for woon

10. Vineetrika

11. slick-voting for Harvey

12. Harvey

You're either bad or misguided Araver. I was spied last night. Which means a goodie knows who I am. If you aren't that goodie (which I know you are not) voting for me blindly is a bad idea. Which means you are trying to get someone to out themselves or completely missed the night post.

[araver]

You're either bad or misguided Araver. I was spied last night. Which means a goodie knows who I am. If you aren't that goodie (which I know you are not) voting for me blindly is a bad idea. Which means you are trying to get someone to out themselves or completely missed the night post.

Not really. And since you're voting for me (and because of Framm's gift), I now need to tell you why I did that:

I did not vote blindly or randomly. I actually thought that it's better to choose you rather than choose randomly.

From what I read in the night post, not one goodie, but two goodies know who you are (goodie BTSC). Doubtful you are one of them spying on yourself.

There is an off-chance that you're Moriarty in which case you are the goodie's wincon, but that's a stretch because of the wording of the nightpost. Other than that, there are 4 goodie/4 baddie+indie roles left which makes it a fair 50-50 chance that you're not goodie. Plus, that very small chance that you are Moriarty does tip the 50-50 balance, because lynching you in that case would fullfil the goodie wincon (we can't have lost majority). So the odds are better in your case than 6/5 for choosing someone randomly (and not knowing whether maurice was goodie or indie). I was the second to vote (and about to get some sleep - it was 4am in my time-zone), so I did not see any other posted information (except a seemingly random vote).

I'm a logical type of person and that is reasoning behind my vote. I did not expect anyone to vote for/bandwagon on you, other than the case that you're Moriarty and then lynching you is actually more important than outing roles. It was worth a try. Plus if I'm right it gave me an information on who not to vote, so I actually have more information than before voting

All of that still does not tell me who to vote next, so I'm adding to someone else's pressure for now.

My reasoning is that in a 7/3/2 game distribution with 4 kill roles we either start exchanging information soon, or we have to shoot randomly.

BTW my name is araver, not avarer

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85

1. Glycereine - Voting for araver

2. EDM

3. maurice - killed by the Baddies

4. Framm18 - Voting for araver

5. woon

6. Vipe195

7. araver - Voting for Harvey

8. Little Miss Sunshine

9. LJ - voted for woon

10. Vineetrika

11. slick-voting forHarvey

12. Harvey

@Miss Kitten - What are the rules on D1 lynch ending in a tie? No lynch or random lynch?

[EDM]

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85

1. Glycereine - Voting for avarer

2. EDM - Voting for Framm18

3. maurice - killed by the Baddies

4. Framm18 - Voting for avarer

5. woon

6. Vipe195

7. araver - voted for Harvey

8. Little Miss Sunshine

9. LJ - voted for woon

10. Vineetrika

11. slick-voting for Harvey

12. Harvey

Random; but suspicious......Am I wrong, Framm???

Edited November 30, 2010 by EDM

[Guest]

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85

1. Glycereine - Voting for araver

2. EDM - Voting for Framm18

3. maurice - killed by the Baddies

4. Framm18 - Voting for araver

5. woon

6. Vipe195

7. araver - voted for Harvey

8. Little Miss Sunshine

9. LJ - voted for woon

10. Vineetrika - voting for LJ

11. slick-voting for Harvey

12. Harvey

Glycerine, if you are a goodie, then the goodie that spied on you should support your statement. Araver, I am not sure if a baddie would spy themselves on N1. So, I am very confused and hence the random vote to LJ. I am flying today and have lot of packing to do. I probably will not login until late tonight or tomorrow and I don't want to look inactive.

Edit: color

Edited November 30, 2010 by Vineetrika

[araver]

Araver, I am not sure if a baddie would spy themselves on N1.

Wait, I'm confused now.

From "Holmes watched Glycereine through his window, and learned from his amazing powers of deduction who he was. He was unaware that he was being watched by Moriarty all the time." I read the sequence Moriarty spies Holmes who in turn spies Glycereine. What does "if a baddie would spy themselves on N1" mean?

[Framm 18]

Not really. And since you're voting for me (and because of Framm's gift), I now need to tell you why I did that:

I did not vote blindly or randomly. I actually thought that it's better to choose you rather than choose randomly.

From what I read in the night post, not one goodie, but two goodies know who you are (goodie BTSC). Doubtful you are one of them spying on yourself.

There is an off-chance that you're Moriarty in which case you are the goodie's wincon, but that's a stretch because of the wording of the nightpost. Other than that, there are 4 goodie/4 baddie+indie roles left which makes it a fair 50-50 chance that you're not goodie. Plus, that very small chance that you are Moriarty does tip the 50-50 balance, because lynching you in that case would fullfil the goodie wincon (we can't have lost majority). So the odds are better in your case than 6/5 for choosing someone randomly (and not knowing whether maurice was goodie or indie). I was the second to vote (and about to get some sleep - it was 4am in my time-zone), so I did not see any other posted information (except a seemingly random vote).

I'm a logical type of person and that is reasoning behind my vote. I did not expect anyone to vote for/bandwagon on you, other than the case that you're Moriarty and then lynching you is actually more important than outing roles. It was worth a try. Plus if I'm right it gave me an information on who not to vote, so I actually have more information than before voting

All of that still does not tell me who to vote next, so I'm adding to someone else's pressure for now.

My reasoning is that in a 7/3/2 game distribution with 4 kill roles we either start exchanging information soon, or we have to shoot randomly.

BTW my name is araver, not avarer

I get what you are saying, but seeming to pin him down to just that one role. Is something that is making it hard for me to remove my vote. I also want to hear more from Vine, but seeing as how she will be offline for a bit. My vote stays for now.

P.S. My fault on the name thing sorry.

[araver]

I get what you are saying, but seeming to pin him down to just that one role. Is something that is making it hard for me to remove my vote. I also want to hear more from Vine, but seeing as how she will be offline for a bit. My vote stays for now.

P.S. My fault on the name thing sorry.

I'm not pinning him down for that role. I'm not sure if a simpler explanation would have been easier, I think I always over-post on BD (puzzles and riddles too). Maybe that's not so good for mafia idk. I chose to explain my reason simply because me sharing it does not tell the baddies or indies anything more.

Imagine you're me. No actual information other than the night-post, starting spreadsheet. 12 roles total. First row Glyc. Glyc spied by Holmes. Subtract Holmes, Glyc's not Holmes unless he was redirected to himself. Subtract Watson (Holmes spying Watson is a waste unless it was redirected - 2 redirecters among 12 roles). Subtract me. 9 roles possible. Wording suggests Moriarty spied Holmes who spied Glyc. If I were a host, I would choose a different wording for the case where Glyc=Moriarty and the sequence is actually a circle, but that's not 100 %sure (also if I were a host, I would not post spies, so it's not 100% actually usable as a deduction). Subtract Moriarty then. 8 roles possibles probability 50% to be goodie. So Occam's razor (no redirects involved) means 50/50. Better chance than random, go with that.

Now the two minimal events that were left out are:

A) sequence being a circle - all the better in favor of voting for Glyc.

B) Holmes got redirected. Worst case he spied himself or Watson too. Best case he spied Moriarty (see sequence A). Worst case just means I can't eliminate the cases as in the analysis above and I'm back to random.

Overall, still better than random. Seriously, I would really wanna now what is wrong with this type of thinking?

Came back after half a day (night in my timezone) to see more votes. Figured if Glyc is bad either Holmes or Watson can vote for him after some votes are in (saying for pressure or anything), making my assumption valid. Equally true, Glyc is good and some baddie/indie bandwagons on him (declaring almost the same thing). No votes on him mean that Holmes/Watson don't want to jump on it (meaning either Glyc's a goodie or not an important baddie/indie like Moriarty) and that baddies don't wanna bandwagon either (inactives/don't care, idk). Either way, no votes mean a tip of the balance for Glyc not being baddie/indie, or not at least an important one. So almost back to square 1. No other important info in the thread, change vote to pressure someone else. Still long till the end of day.

On an unrelated note, the flu is finally starting to get to me, so I think this is my last fully conscious post before my brain starts to melt

[Glycereine]

Araver you're thinking way too hard. Let me make it simple

Holmes knows who I am and the baddies know who he is which means he has no reason to stay quiet if I'm bad. Your logic is flawed or you're bad

[araver]

Araver you're thinking way too hard. Let me make it simple

Holmes knows who I am and the baddies know who he is which means he has no reason to stay quiet if I'm bad. Your logic is flawed or you're bad

Glyc, seriously, the first line is actually a little insulting.

Baddies know who Holmes is, granted.

Holmes knows who you are, granted.

Why would Holmes show himself to indies?

Only incentive to not stay quiet and show himself is if that you are an important baddie/indie. If I were Holmes, I wouldn't come out and push a lynch towards you unless you were Moriarty (which case goodie wins) - the risk of not being trusted and possibly exposing Watson by trying to push the lynching process.

At most I might feel inclined if I knew you were Lestrade - in which case I would eliminate the indy kill and wouldn't care if the other indie knows me, since after the lynch all the goodies will be convinced that I'm Holmes. It might make it an easier game for the goodie or not. Or maybe it wouldn't be worth the risk.

Your entitled to your opinion, I'm entitled to have my own. I don't see the flaw in my logic. I would play it that way. I just removed my vote *because* no one else voted for you.

And your fixation with I'm flawed or I'm bad is starting to annoy me.

[Framm 18]

Hosts: MissKitten and Prince_Marth85

1. Glycereine - Voting for araver

2. EDM - Voting for Framm18

3. maurice - killed by the Baddies

4. Framm18 - Voting for Little Miss Sunshine

5. woon

6. Vipe195

7. araver - voted for Harvey

8. Little Miss Sunshine

9. LJ - voted for woon

10. Vineetrika - voting for LJ

11. slick-voting for Harvey

12. Harvey

I still don't trust you araver, but until I can get some more information. I will put my vote on someone else.

I also find it strange that the Indy didn't kill last night.