InlineSpoiler for Observations
Given these constraints, the carnivore should win in almost all (3/4) cases. The herbivores will never have enough information by the time the carnivore can kill two of them.
N1 - an arbitrary herbivore is killed and each herbivore eliminates two possibilities of his species (no information is gained about other herbivores)
D1 - all creatures must vote. As there are four creatures left, all three herbivores must vote for the carnivore in order to kill him.* If the vote ever comes down to a 2-2 split (and the carnivore is not part of that split), he can change his vote to create a 3v1 vote, and he wins.
If changing is allowed (1+2 of the puzzle) and if all creatures must vote ... maybe.
If changing is not allowed (3), then it depends on the timing of the votes.
All other cases are dependent on when the vote "ends" and the votes are actually tallied (assumption: after everyone votes at least once and a plurality is reached).
If changing is allowed (1+2 of the puzzle), then voting ends after a given time (let's call that moment twilight's end ).
If changing is not allowed (3) / all votes are final, then voting can effectively end after the last vote is placed.
If this phase cannot end without a creature dying, the carnivore has an extreme advantage.
Theoretically, it can end without a creature dying.
For (1), (3): 4 vs 0, 3 vs 1 or 2 vs 1 vs 1 are plurality votes, 1 vs 1 vs 1 vs 1 is the case where no one dies.
For (2), it's more complicated.
N2 - the herbivores now have a chance to determine what their species is, but it is too late. The carnivore will eliminate another herbivore.
D2 - The last herbivore will know who the carnivore is, but will never be able to eliminate him since the vote will be 1v1 and no plurality will ever be reached.
*Note: This creates a situation where a re-evaluation might even change the minds of those herbivores.
Edited by araver, 29 January 2013 - 10:39 PM.