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Five minutes after midnight of April 13th, 2004, a heavy rain fell in Melbourne. What is the probability that, 72 hours later, it would be sunny there? Explain answer.

Zero. It would be midnight.

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Five minutes after midnight of April 13th, 2004, a heavy rain fell in Melbourne. What is the probability that, 72 hours later, it would be sunny there? Explain answer.

11/24 because that is the portion of the day which Melbourne is in daylight on that day. The time specified for the heavy shower could be anywhere in the world where it was 5 minutes past midnight on April 13th.

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11/24 because that is the portion of the day which Melbourne is in daylight on that day. The time specified for the heavy shower could be anywhere in the world where it was 5 minutes past midnight on April 13th.

Doesn't that assume it's definitely sunny during the daylight hours? Because there was significant cloud cover for most of the 15th and 16th of April 04:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=melbourne+weather+4/13/2004-4/16/2004

Anyway, the question is flawed, because it wasn't raining on 4/13/04. So if "was raining" actually means "was not raining", then "was" means "was not", so it "was" sunny at 00:05 on 4/16/2004.

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Doesn't that assume it's definitely sunny during the daylight hours? Because there was significant cloud cover for most of the 15th and 16th of April 04:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=melbourne+weather+4/13/2004-4/16/2004

Anyway, the question is flawed, because it wasn't raining on 4/13/04. So if "was raining" actually means "was not raining", then "was" means "was not", so it "was" sunny at 00:05 on 4/16/2004.

You're right. I lived in Melbourne for three years and there was significant cloud cover for most of the fall and winter (March thru September) there.

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