Guest Posted March 21, 2009 Report Share Posted March 21, 2009 since there a 65 teams (including play in game) 64 without what are the odds of creating a bracket yourself that is completely correct? i am just curious so i have no idea. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0 Prof. Templeton Posted March 21, 2009 Report Share Posted March 21, 2009 I've seen some wide ranging answers to this question, but the lowest estimate I came across was 1 in a trillion. One was 1 in 7 trillion and ESPN says just picking at random you're chances are 1 in 9.2 quadrillion. Suffice to say that no documented proof exists that anyone has ever picked a perfect bracket. You have a better chance of enjoying cocktails with space aliens in you den. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0 Guest Posted March 21, 2009 Report Share Posted March 21, 2009 Im pretty sure I remember Probabilities.. You first have to look at a bracket. Counting up all the games played (32 in first round, 16 in second, 8 in third, 4 in the fourth, 2 in the fifth, and 1 in the final round) total #matches = 63 (64 if you are going to write in the play in match as well) the probability of guessing the the correct winner in one match is 1/2. the probability of guessing two in a row is (1/2)*(1/2) so correctly guessing the outcome of all 63 (or 64) matches is 1/(2^63 (or64)) the odds are 1 in 1.08*10^19 for 63 and 1 in 5.42*10^20 for all 64 match ups being correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0 bonanova Posted March 21, 2009 Report Share Posted March 21, 2009 If every game has no favorite it's .565. But that's not realistic. No 16 seed has ever beaten a 1 seed. Last year there was at least one perfect bracket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0 Guest Posted March 21, 2009 Report Share Posted March 21, 2009 Last year there was at least one perfect bracket. There absolutely was not a perfect bracket last year (at least no reported one), and that was one of the most pedestrian tournaments in modern Tournament (post-1985) history. There never has been a perfect bracket, and likely never will be. Further proof from a man much smarter than I: http://www.stat.yale.edu/~jay/News/WSJbb.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0 Prof. Templeton Posted March 21, 2009 Report Share Posted March 21, 2009 There absolutely was not a perfect bracket last year (at least no reported one), and that was one of the most pedestrian tournaments in modern Tournament (post-1985) history. There never has been a perfect bracket, and likely never will be. I would tend to agree. It's kinda like BigFoot, I'll believe it when I see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0 Guest Posted March 21, 2009 Report Share Posted March 21, 2009 since there a 65 teams (including play in game) 64 without what are the odds of creating a bracket yourself that is completely correct? i am just curious so i have no idea. lol there is a mathematical equation to this answer. something like this... 64 teams means 32 games round one: (32x31x30x29x28x27x26.....)2 big number 32 teams means 16 games round two: (16x15x14x13x12x11....)2 smaller number, but still large 16 teams 8 games round three: (8x7x6x5x4x3x2)2 do this math on this round! 8 teams means 4 games round four: (4x3x2)2 forty eight different combinations 4 teams mean 2 games round five: (2)2 four different combintions for final four 2 teams mean one game round six: 2 combinations now add all of these together! that is the possibility for a perfect bracket....pretty much impossible! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0 Guest Posted March 21, 2009 Report Share Posted March 21, 2009 (edited) there is a mathematical equation to this answer. something like this... 64 teams means 32 games round one: (32x31x30x29x28x27x26.....)2 big number 32 teams means 16 games round two: (16x15x14x13x12x11....)2 smaller number, but still large 16 teams 8 games round three: (8x7x6x5x4x3x2)2 do this math on this round! 8 teams means 4 games round four: (4x3x2)2 forty eight different combinations 4 teams mean 2 games round five: (2)2 four different combintions for final four 2 teams mean one game round six: 2 combinations now add all of these together! that is the possibility for a perfect bracket....pretty much impossible! correction: The straight odds calculations is relatively easy, for each 64 games you must pick the right outcome out of the 2 possible outcomes (win or loss). So our Statisitics 101 class tells us that is two to the power of 64 (2^64) different possible combinations. Only one those will be the perfect bracket. You have 1 in 18 quintillion chance to pick a perfect bracket Oh and if you didn’t calculate that, 2^64 = 1.8 x 1019 or more precisely 18,446,744,073,709,551,616. Edited March 21, 2009 by superman123 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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since there a 65 teams (including play in game) 64 without what are the odds of creating a bracket yourself that is completely correct?
i am just curious so i have no idea. lol
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