I never was never able to figure Keno odds, but after placing a few $1 bets in Vegas a few years back I vowed to stay away. My intuition was the payoff was ridiculously low. I since have seen that was a wise move on my part.

In case you've never done the calculation, I'll offer you the option of four different games and ask you to determine the expected return. There are 80 numbers, from which you pick from 1 to 4, and from which the casino picks 20, at random. Your winnings depend on the number of "matches" between your numbers and the casino's.

In each case you bet $1, which the house keeps.

Your winnings are as follows:

You pick 1 number. If it matches one of the 20 picked by the casino, you are paid $3.

You pick 2 numbers. If they both are matches (with the casino's 20 numbers) you are paid $12. There is no payoff in only one of your numbers is a match.

You pick 3 numbers. If all three are matches you are paid $42. If exactly two are matches you are paid $1, breaking even.

You pick 4 numbers. If all four are matches you are paid $120. If exactly three are matches you are paid $3. If exactly two are matches you are paid $1, breaking even.

If you play ten $1 games of your choosing, what is your best expected return?

## Question

## bonanova

I never was never able to figure Keno odds, but after placing a few $1 bets in Vegas a few years back I vowed to stay away. My intuition was the payoff was ridiculously low. I since have seen that was a wise move on my part.

In case you've never done the calculation, I'll offer you the option of four different games and ask you to determine the expected return. There are 80 numbers, from which you pick from 1 to 4, and from which the casino picks 20, at random. Your winnings depend on the number of "matches" between your numbers and the casino's.

In each case you bet $1, which the house keeps.

Your winnings are as follows:

If it matches one of the 20 picked by the casino, you are paid $3.

If they both are matches (with the casino's 20 numbers) you are paid $12.

There is no payoff in only one of your numbers is a match.

If all three are matches you are paid $42.

If exactly two are matches you are paid $1, breaking even.

If all four are matches you are paid $120.

If exactly three are matches you are paid $3.

If exactly two are matches you are paid $1, breaking even.

If you play ten $1 games of your choosing, what is your best expected return?

## Link to comment

## Share on other sites

## 1 answer to this question

## Recommended Posts

## Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.