Modified Deal or No Deal

[BMAD]

The Basics of Modified Deal or No Deal:

There are ten boxes labeled 1 through 10.

The boxes have a check in them worth from .01 to 10,000,000 dollars as such $.01, $.10, $1.00, $10.00, $100.00, $1000.00, $10,000, $100,000, $1,000,000, and $10,000,000).

The amounts are randomly placed in the marked boxes.

The player first selects their chosen box.

The game proceeds as folllows:

Round 1:

The player select 2 boxes to be revealed

--An offer is made to the player, if the player agrees, the game is over.

Round 2:

if not- the player selects 2 boxes to be revealed

--An offer is made to the player, if the player agrees, the game is over.

Round 3:

if not- the player selects 2 boxes to be revealed

--An offer is made to the player, if the player selects, the game is over.

Round 4:

if not- the player selects 2 boxes to be revealed

--An offer is made to the player, if the player selects, the game is over.

Round 5:

if not- the player's chosen box is revealed and they take the prize.

The individual making the offer to the player is known as the banker. It is well-known, in this game, that the banker offers 85% below the median of the boxes for the first round and increases that percentage by 5% of the median of the remaining boxes each later round. A player was made the following offers

Round 1: 4,675.00

Round 2: 4,950.00

Round 3: 5,225.00

Round 4: 5,500.00

What boxes were chosen each round?

Should the player take the offer?

[bonanova]

Does he offer 85% of the median value? Below is ambiguous.

[Nins_Leprechaun]

While there is some ambiguity or lack of clarity in the wording, from what I'm reading it is impossible to tell which box was picked each turn as we are dealing with a median not mean.

The median for all 4 rounds seems to be 5500 or rather the 1000 and 10000 boxes. Other than saying that the first round they probably selected .01 and .1 boxes as long as all the other rounds found one box above 10000 and one below 1000 we would see this result. It is irrelevant as to the exact value of each box picked in each round so long as they meet this criteria.

As for the second question, there is no right answer. With only two boxes left and being offered 100% of the median value which is also the mean there is no real mathematical advantage one way or another. The real question is whether or not you want a garenteed payout or like to gamble.

[BMAD]

Does he offer 85% of the median value? Below is ambiguous.

yes, of....sorry

[Nins_Leprechaun]

While there is some ambiguity or lack of clarity in the wording, from what I'm reading it is impossible to tell which box was picked each turn as we are dealing with a median not mean.

The median for all 4 rounds seems to be 5500 or rather the 1000 and 10000 boxes. Other than saying that the first round they probably selected .01 and .1 boxes as long as all the other rounds found one box above 10000 and one below 1000 we would see this result. It is irrelevant as to the exact value of each box picked in each round so long as they meet this criteria.

As for the second question, there is no right answer. With only two boxes left and being offered 100% of the median value which is also the mean there is no real mathematical advantage one way or another. The real question is whether or not you want a garenteed payout or like to gamble.

As a side not please ignore that bit about what ones were probably selected in the first round. It was late and I wasn't tired. Please excuse the brain fart.

What I should have said is that two boxes below 1000 were selected not any ones in particular

[BMAD]

While there is some ambiguity or lack of clarity in the wording, from what I'm reading it is impossible to tell which box was picked each turn as we are dealing with a median not mean.

The median for all 4 rounds seems to be 5500 or rather the 1000 and 10000 boxes. Other than saying that the first round they probably selected .01 and .1 boxes as long as all the other rounds found one box above 10000 and one below 1000 we would see this result. It is irrelevant as to the exact value of each box picked in each round so long as they meet this criteria.

As for the second question, there is no right answer. With only two boxes left and being offered 100% of the median value which is also the mean there is no real mathematical advantage one way or another. The real question is whether or not you want a garenteed payout or like to gamble.

As a side not please ignore that bit about what ones were probably selected in the first round. It was late and I wasn't tired. Please excuse the brain fart.

What I should have said is that two boxes below 1000 were selected not any ones in particular

and then what happened in the next round? and so on? i don't need a specific box for an answer.