Absolutely correct.
See? It's not really hard to figure that out.
It isn't your logic that has fallen short [did you say grasshopper?] it's your reading, comprehension or
retention abilities. You've simply forgotten what you read and understood from the OP. Or you
remembered what you didn't understand from the OP. Or, you simply did not read the OP.
Whatever.
The problem that you are analyzing is this:
There are a million doors - one car, the rest goats. Monty opens 999,998 goat doors, leaving two unopened. You choose from the two remaining doors. You have a 50% chance of getting the car.
Did you notice the subtle but important difference in the order of events?
By the way, if you still cling to your one-in-a-million-even-odds bets, that really fine with me,
I have no horse in this race - you can analyze these things any way you like.
But understand that the real test of correct analysis is to play the
game and come out with more money than you started with.
And anytime you want to play this game, just give me a call.