15 replies to this topic

[unreality]

Hi UR,

I re-read your posts, and If I understand them,
you are saying that the equally likely cases are the numbers of reds and greens.
5 red 0 green = same likelihood as
4 red 1 green = same likelihood as
3 red 2 green = same likelihood as
2 red 3 green

Like that defines 4 equally likely cases.

Is that what you're saying?
Otherwise I don't understand where we differ.

Best,
BN

yep! same probability... cuz there is no random distribution. I'll post this in that topic so we can continue this discussion there not here

[bonanova]

Hi UR,

I re-read your posts, and If I understand them,
you are saying that the equally likely cases are the numbers of reds and greens.
5 red 0 green = same likelihood as
4 red 1 green = same likelihood as
3 red 2 green = same likelihood as
2 red 3 green

Like that defines 4 equally likely cases.

Is that what you're saying?
Otherwise I don't understand where we differ.

Best,
BN

yep! same probability... cuz there is no random distribution. I'll post this in that topic so we can continue this discussion there not here <!-- s:D --><!-- s:D -->

Thank you, my friend -- I have seen the light.
You've taught me well.
If you'll excuse me I have a few things to do...

[1] Go tell sajow4 she was right.

Spoiler for ...

A couple has two children, one of which is a girl. What is the probability the other is a girl?
There are two possibilities, both equally likely:

[1] 1 girl and 1 boy. Probability of the other being a girl = 0%
[2] 2 girls and 0 boys. Probability of the other being a girl = 100%

The probability of the other being a girl is [0% + 100%]/2 = 50%

She'll be delighted to hear this.

[2]Go to Morty's and flip some coins tonight.

Spoiler for ...

I'll flip a coin 10 times. What are my chances of getting all 10 tails?
There are only 11 outcomes, all equally likely:

[ 1] 10 tails, 0 heads - probability of winning = 100%
[ 2] 9 tails, 1 heads - probability of winning = 0%
[ 3] 8 tails, 2 heads - probability of winning = 0%
[ 4] 7 tails, 3 heads - probability of winning = 0%
[ 5] 6 tails, 4 heads - probability of winning = 0%
[ 6] 5 tails, 5 heads - probability of winning = 0%
[ 7] 4 tails, 6 heads - probability of winning = 0%
[ 8] 3 tails, 7 heads - probability of winning = 0%
[ 9] 2 tails, 8 heads - probability of winning = 0%
[10] 1 tails, 9 heads - probability of winning = 0%
[11] 0 tails, 10 heads - probability of winning = 0%

Overall my chances are [100+0+0=0+0+0+0+0=0+0=0]/11 = 9.1%

Heh heh. Some guy at Morty's said he'd give me 1024-to-1 odds.

[3] Finally -and this is the big one - I'm going to buy a lotto ticket.

Spoiler for ...

I bought a lotto ticket. What are my chances of winning?
There are only two possibilities, both equally likely:

[1] it's the right number. Probability of winning = 100%
[2] it's not the right number. Probability of winning = 0%

Overall, my chances of winning are [100 + 0]/2 = 50%.

This excites me, cuz I hear the lotto pays off more than $100 sometimes.

[Martini]

Right there ^ is where you are wrong. It is not randomly distributed. There would be 26 different options if and only if the chips under the cups were distributed randomly.

How does this make a difference?

There is a red marble and a black marble in a bag. You blindly put your hand in and pull one out (random). What is the probability that you pulled the black marble?

There is a red marble and a black marble in a bag. Someone grabs the one he wants (non-random). You have to guess what marble he picked and you guess black. What is the probability that you guessed correctly?

[unreality]

You guys aren't getting it... there are 2 random chances...

the first is where the chips are under the cups

the second is which ones you picked (easily determined)

The chances of the second do not change unless the first changes


Bonanova, i dont know where you got the 100-0-0-0 thing but think about it this way:

normally, there would be certain chances that certain combinations are more likely... like look at it with three cups of two different color chips:

red-red-red
red-red-blue
red-blue-red
blue-red-red
blue-blue-red
red-blue-blue
blue-red-blue
blue-blue-blue

but the chances for one, if they ARENT picked randomly, is just...

ZOMG NEVER MIND SORRY

wow i'm such an idiot.

[unreality]

ahhh actually I was right to an extent. We sort of met in the middle. This, copied from the front of my answer, was the base for the rest of my operations:

4 RED, 1 GREEN
3 RED, 2 GREEN
2 RED, 3 GREEN

Each are equally probable.


That statement is perfectly true... I just didnt elongate it. For example, 4 red and 1 green can be:

GRRRR
RGRRR
RRGRR
RRRGR
RRRRG

*slaps forehead*

[bonanova]

ZOMG NEVER MIND SORRY

wow i'm such an ------.

Not true. Quit talking about my friends like that....