I will still stick to #2.
Earlier i had a blind guess of winning a car prob:1/3
Now i have prob:1/2
My hunch tell me however:: Had i selected a door with goat on first choice, the host would have happily opened it to let all know, the game would end there. They were always more interested in saving a jaguar for a goat.
Why did 1/3 become 1/2?
Remember Monty did not guess which door had a goat. He knew.
And he didn't open the door you chose, he showed a different goat.