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UN Mafia III

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3 hours ago, maurice_2.0 said:

Host: araver
1. Thalia - quarantined by Sweden
2. bonanova
3. Molly Mae - voting for Maurice
4. Flamebirde
5. maurice - voting for bonanova

 

6. MikeD - Lynched D1 as United Kingdom
7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

 

Well, if I read up correctly it seems that the two best options are Molly and bonanova.  The question is which order do we want to test/lynch them in.  I don't "know" that they are both Sweden and China, but I have reason to believe that at least one is one of the two.  I don't think Australia can free Thalia if he acted already.  My gut tells me Molly would trap me before bonanova, but my heart says he'd have wanted me around Day 1.  So what does my brain say?  It says let's give bonanova a chance at the hot seat...for MikeD.

Forgot to add, that one could be Sweden and one China and of the two I'd rather get Sweden first.  If we wait too long we could be gifting a win to him by getting rid of China.  So based on that I'd pick the most likely to be Sweden of the two.  Could be Molly is the most likely to be China, but I didn't think that far.

https://goo.gl/XnNPgc

Bonanova should definitely not be in the hot seat.  Unless you're talking about the wave.  =P

I'd love to get a solid claim from  you, Maurice, as that's the only way I'll be changing my vote.

Edited by Molly Mae

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Host: araver
1. Thalia - quarantined by Sweden
2. bonanova
3. Molly Mae - voting for Maurice
4. Flamebirde - voting for Molly Mae
5. maurice - voting for bonanova

 

6. MikeD - Lynched D1 as United Kingdom
7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

See, I'm thinking Maurice is Australia, which would explain why there was no vote manip D1 but was able to save me N2. Because of that, I'm willing to trust him, which leaves my other options between Molly and Bonanova. Also, now China knows my identity, so things are getting really iffy. For now, I'll give Bonanova the benefit of the doubt, but Molly...

@Molly Mae Why are Thalia and Maurice targets?

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3 minutes ago, flamebirde said:

Host: araver
1. Thalia - quarantined by Sweden
2. bonanova
3. Molly Mae - voting for Maurice
4. Flamebirde - voting for Molly Mae
5. maurice - voting for bonanova

 

6. MikeD - Lynched D1 as United Kingdom
7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

See, I'm thinking Maurice is Australia, which would explain why there was no vote manip D1 but was able to save me N2. Because of that, I'm willing to trust him, which leaves my other options between Molly and Bonanova. Also, now China knows my identity, so things are getting really iffy. For now, I'll give Bonanova the benefit of the doubt, but Molly...

@Molly Mae Why are Thalia and Maurice targets?

With literally everything hanging on this vote, I'll tell you that I'm Russia.

3 minutes ago, flamebirde said:

Host: araver
1. Thalia - quarantined by Sweden
2. bonanova
3. Molly Mae - voting for Maurice
4. Flamebirde - voting for Molly Mae
5. maurice - voting for bonanova

 

6. MikeD - Lynched D1 as United Kingdom
7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

See, I'm thinking Maurice is Australia, which would explain why there was no vote manip D1 but was able to save me N2. Because of that, I'm willing to trust him, which leaves my other options between Molly and Bonanova. Also, now China knows my identity, so things are getting really iffy. For now, I'll give Bonanova the benefit of the doubt, but Molly...

@Molly Mae Why are Thalia and Maurice targets?

With literally everything hanging on this vote, I'll tell you that I'm Russia.

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4 minutes ago, flamebirde said:

Oh, crap. Counterclaims, anyone?

Wanna change your vote and then if someone counter-claims, I can do the "share-what-I-know" to prove that they're lying?

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Host: araver
1. Thalia - quarantined by Sweden
2. bonanova
3. Molly Mae - voting for Maurice
4. Flamebirde - voting for Maurice
5. maurice - voting for bonanova

 

6. MikeD - Lynched D1 as United Kingdom
7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

For now, I'll go along with it. Share everything now so if you get RID killed we have some info.

See, if Molly is telling the truth, then we lynch Maurice on his advice (3v1) and then Thalia dies next cycle (2v1 even in the worst case scenario).

Can ODTG actions be used if the player is quarantined?

C'mon man, quickly! If you get RIDed, then we're almost back to square one, and China could potentially remove a vote to tie the lynch!

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So you're Russia, voting for me based on what?  Or are you Sweden after all fishing for roles?

 

Let's just say I doubt that you're Russia and voting for me.

Host: araver
1. Thalia - quarantined by Sweden
2. bonanova
3. Molly Mae - voting for Maurice
4. Flamebirde - voting for Maurice
5. maurice - voting for Molly Mae

 

6. MikeD - Lynched D1 as United Kingdom
7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

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Alright, Maurice. Claim a role. Molly's done it already (assuming he didn't lie), so the RID kill doesn't matter anymore.

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That makes no sense.  If he's Sweden he may be looking for a role.  He knows either he's not Russia or he has nothing on me.  I know this as well. Or are you Sweden?

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Fair. I'll claim if you do.

in fact, screw it. I'm Germany.

If we all claim now, then goodies win, period - one RID kill plus the lynch puts us at 2v1 going into the night, and after I save then we win the lynch.

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And you?

If you don't claim, then I'll assume you're claiming Australia, as you can't be US or UK, and Molly's claimed Russia. (but really, we all know it's essentially an admission of guilt...)

What about you, Bonanova? claim now or forever hold your peace. Two people have claimed already, and there's only one Sweden, so...

22 minutes ago, maurice_2.0 said:

Well China knew that so normally that's an OK claim, but now Sweden knows it...

Yes, well, unless I targeted myself for the NK, I'm not China.

Edited by flamebirde

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1 hour ago, flamebirde said:

What about you, Bonanova? claim now or forever hold your peace. Two people have claimed already, and there's only one Sweden, so...

If if matters, I'm throwing another shrimp on the BBQ.
I'm also the reason, through a fantastic guess, that you're alive (yer welcome, mate.)

I'm not following all the what-if's here, but if the claim is true that the goodies win if we all claim,
then I'm happy to use the occasion to publicly opine that DJT is an SOB for the way he treated my PM.

EDit: btw, after D1 does everyone voted for get lynched?

Edited by bonanova
Add question

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7 minutes ago, bonanova said:

If if matters, I'm throwing another shrimp on the BBQ.
I'm also the reason, through a fantastic guess, that you're alive.

I'm not following all the what-if's here, but if the claim is true that the goodies win if we all claim,
then I'm happy to use the occasion to publicly opine that DJT is an SOB for the way he treated my PM.

Mo: Claiming is the only way I'll change my vote.  I can't be 100% sure on you, so I'm going with most likely.  But I'm pretty sure FB waiting for you to claim is more telling.

Here's what I know: Flamebirde is not China.  Maurice is not Sweden.  Bonanova is Australia.  I am Russia.  Thalia is most likely Sweden, which leaves Maurice as China by process of elimination.  If Thalia is not Sweden, she herself could be China and FB could be Sweden.  If a RID kill happens today, we'll have our answer.  It will also prevent Sweden from acting N3 and an easy lynch target if we get the right person today.  Ultimately, FB could be Sweden and Maurice could be China.  Because of their lack of claiming, I wouldn't be surprised if this was the case.

I also have one more piece of information which I will withhold for now.  I still don't think it's possible for the good guys to win without guessing.

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Well then my guess is Thalia is China and flame is Sweden.  Like I said Molly you'd have no way of shooting me bad if you were Russia.  You may know who Sweden is, but I've yet to act.

 

Would you believe I was willing to take a chance N1.  Someone did the Math about how the days would go and it made the most sense.  As it turns out me being trapped was the very best that could happen, if I survive this lynch of course.

Also my N1 target was Thalia, because she didn't say anything. I was also suspicious of bonanova, but I don't think I've played with him yet, so I thought I'd like to.

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9 minutes ago, maurice_2.0 said:

Would you believe I was willing to take a chance N1.  

Man, I want to believe this because that would be so awesome.  It jives so far with what I've got.  But who did you try to target N1?

Just for you, Mo:

https://goo.gl/lxSQH9

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I just replied but it merged

After reading through I had plasmid as Russia.  I never left my suspicion of Thalia but she's not a candidate, so my hope was to pick correctly between Molly and bon and then kill Thalia. Or kill the other if we mislynch.

 

bons claim and Molly backing it can only mean my initial read was wrong or they somehow are working with each other knowing who the other is... Even though I think Boq said they shouldn't do that maybe it was an invite.

 

But that's low probability for me... So that leaves...

Host: araver
1. Thalia - quarantined by Sweden
2. bonanova
3. Molly Mae - voting for Maurice
4. Flamebirde - voting for Maurice
5. maurice - voting for Flamebirde

 

6. MikeD - Lynched D1 as United Kingdom
7. plasmid - Invaded N1 by China

 

I apologize for colors

 

 

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Well, that's hilarious. I targeted Bonanova N1 for a save, so there you go. But you can't be U.S, for one simple reason- Plasmid had to be U.S. If Molly is Russia, I'm Germany, Bonanova's Australia, and Mike was the U.K., and Plasmid had to be a goodie, then Plasmid must be the U.S. No two ways about it. If I were Sweden, I would have trapped myself to ensure myself safety from the lynch. 

 

Bonanova's probably telling the truth, then, about the D1 lynch- if he never changed his vote, then he also wouldn't have had time to use the vote manip. Notably, none of us has been RID'd yet, so either Sweden is playing coy, or Thalia (the only one who has yet to contribute a claim) is keeping to the shadows.

Logically, we know Thalia isn't Australia (because I was saved while she was trapped),Plasmid wasn't Australia (Australia acted last night and Plasmid's dead) and we know Mike was the U.K. There are four candidates for Australia, then-  Maurice, Molly, Bonanova, and me. Molly and I both claimed a different role. Therefore, either Maurice is Australia or Bonanova is. And Maurice claims to be the U.S., not Australia. therefore, Bonanova MUST be Australia.

If Bonanova is Australia, and Molly vouched for him, then either Molly took a huge leap of faith or he's confirmed as Russia. Which leaves two options for my role- either I'm Germany, or I'm Sweden. If I was Sweden, I would have trapped myself for sure.

So if Molly's Russia, I'm Germany, Bonanova's Australia, Mike was the U.K., and Plasmid was a goodie, then Plasmid must be the US, which means Maurice is lying.

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Alright. One of us four must be Australia- either me, Bonanova, Molly, or Maurice. Nobody claimed to be Australia except Bonanova, and no one has counterclaimed him, which means that Bonanova more or less must be Australia. Since I know that I'm Germany, Bonanova's Australia, Mike was the U.K., and Plasmid was a goodie, that means that only one of [Thalia, Molly, Maurice] is innocent, and Molly supported Bonanova before he was publically outed, so I trust him more than anyone else on that shortlist. Therefore, since Thalia is trapped (probably trapped herself), Maurice is the logical target.

 

once again- if I were Sweden, why wouldn't I trap myself?

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So as I see it then, there remains a chance Molly is lying and gambled on plasmids role.  He didn't take a huge leap of faith by vouching for bonanova as bonanova had claimed already. The leap of faith would have been claiming Russia.  I didn't like the way he was pressing me as Russia but I buy it's more POE and less a spy action.

I can go into what I would have done if I were China and if I were Sweden and of course they'd differ from what they actually did.  Instead I'll tell you what I did and what I intend to do.

Why is nobody dead yet?

Well could be Thalia is Sweden, but then Molly is China as fb can't be.  Or could be fb thinks he can get out of this lynch and hang onto it. With 4 people voting, a kill does not necessarily help him today.

Fb that why wouldn't I do this defense doesn't fly and here is why... You controlled that action.

 

If I had a public action, like a block.  I could figure out the obvious play (block araver for example) then not do it and say well look if I were the block I would have blocked araver, but the block didn't so it's not me.  The fact that you're leaning on that as a defense makes it less valid to me.

 

In short, why wouldn't you self trap? So that you could use that as a defense.

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10 minutes ago, maurice_2.0 said:

So as I see it then, there remains a chance Molly is lying and gambled on plasmids role.  He didn't take a huge leap of faith by vouching for bonanova as bonanova had claimed already.

This is why I hinted at Bonanova's role before he publicly claimed Australia.  =P

EDIT: For reference:  Bonanova should definitely not be in the hot seat.  Unless you're talking about the wave.  =P

Edited by Molly Mae

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Suppose China and Sweden are outed. Do the goodies ensure a win, and, who is targeted first?

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2 minutes ago, maurice_2.0 said:

So as I see it then, there remains a chance Molly is lying and gambled on plasmids role.  He didn't take a huge leap of faith by vouching for bonanova as bonanova had claimed already. The leap of faith would have been claiming Russia.  I didn't like the way he was pressing me as Russia but I buy it's more POE and less a spy action.

I can go into what I would have done if I were China and if I were Sweden and of course they'd differ from what they actually did.  Instead I'll tell you what I did and what I intend to do.

Why is nobody dead yet?

Well could be Thalia is Sweden, but then Molly is China as fb can't be.  Or could be fb thinks he can get out of this lynch and hang onto it. With 4 people voting, a kill does not necessarily help him today.

What does POE mean?

And to refute your point- if Molly lied, then Molly is either Sweden or China, Plas was Russia, you are the US, and Bonanova is Australia. I guess it comes down to this- I can't be China. Therefore, if I'm not a goodie, I must be Sweden, and therefore Molly must be China, and I trapped Thalia, who then must be Germany. But since we all seem to agree that Thalia must be bad, this can't be the case. Therefore, I can't be Sweden.

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Why can't you be Sweden and Thalia be China.

 

See you went with if Molly lied, but I said if he's lying you're good... I don't think he is so you're bad, as is Thalia.

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