Two men are each given a necktie by their respective wives as a Christmas present. Over drinks they start arguing over who has the more expensive necktie, and agree to have a wager over it. They will consult their wives and find out which necktie is the more expensive. The terms of the bet are that the man with the more expensive necktie has to give it to the other as the prize.

The first man reasons as follows: the probability of me winning or losing is 50:50. If I lose, then I lose the value of my necktie. If I win, then I win more than the value of my necktie. In other words, I can bet x and have a 50% chance of winning more than x. Therefore it is definitely in my interest to make the wager. The second man can consider the wager in exactly the same way; therefore, paradoxically, it seems both men have the advantage in the bet.

Two men are each given a necktie by their respective wives as a Christmas present. Over drinks they start arguing over who has the more expensive necktie, and agree to have a wager over it. They will consult their wives and find out which necktie is the more expensive. The terms of the bet are that the man with the more expensive necktie has to give it to the other as the prize.

The first man reasons as follows: the probability of me winning or losing is 50:50. If I lose, then I lose the value of my necktie. If I win, then I win more than the value of my necktie. In other words, I can bet x and have a 50% chance of winning more than x. Therefore it is definitely in my interest to make the wager. The second man can consider the wager in exactly the same way; therefore, paradoxically, it seems both men have the advantage in the bet.

Is there a problem here?

## Share this post

## Link to post

## Share on other sites