Yoruichi-san Posted June 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 24, 2013 (edited) I'm with Shadow, I don't think the calculation is quite accurate. I think Bb's system is a great guideline for beginner hosts, but I don't think it accurately represents all the factors that go into mafia game balance. Some of the major things I think are not completely represented: 1) Interaction factors (I believe this is the statistical term), i.e. the interplay between certain roles that makes them stronger or weaker in the presence of certain other roles than they would be alone. The kind of 'mafia game balance is more (or less) than the sum of its parts' thing. 2) Hosting styles/rules. Different hosts have different opinions about what goes into Posts, what takes precedence over what, etc, and this often affects the 'strength' of some roles/role combinations. 3) The Law of sheer numbers. As far as I can tell, the system doesn't give any weight to numbers (in terms of # of players), but many mafias come down to voting in the end, which is very much about the numbers. I.e. a game with 3 mafia and 6 'active' innocent roles would have the same calculation as if the game had 3 mafia, 6 'active' roles, and 10 "vanilla" villagers, but I think everyone would agree that the latter is far more in favor of the innocents . Also, generally a player with two different abilities is not as strong as 2 players each with one of those abilities, due to the possibility of blocks/redirect/manipulate as well as voting. Just to point out a few places these factors come into play: The fact that kills are not blocking in my hosting style is usually an advantage for the side that does less killing and has more members killed, so in this case, the innocents. The fact that there is no innocent redirect and the mafia one is shown allows the information roles to be more confident in their information. Additionally, in a game with more information roles, this has more of an effect, in a game with less, this has less. MikeD (Artemis) could trust Vommack's info on Aaryan (unless Vommack himself was mafia/indie and playing something sneaky, of course ) b/c he knew he was not redirected. The Independent role is a lot stronger than the calculations would suggest, for many reasons, some of the main ones being: -The small size of the game, due to the Law of sheer numbers, as well as the ability to narrow down roles faster. Also, the small size allows the indie manipulate to control a larger proportion of the game earlier, and it's a lot more about proportion than number of players controlled. -The fact that the target does not know they are manipulated, no one does except the indie (and me, of course ;P), and my vague style of information reporting, i.e. "Your target is Miss Martian" rather than "Vommack is Miss Martian." -The ability to control the mafia NK and a lynch swap or a lynch save, effectively making themselves invincible once they had enough info. Combine this with the aforementioned effects of a small size game, and I think its pretty apparent that the indie is a lot more powerful than Bb's system might think (speaking of which, I had a huge speech prepared about underestimating Lex Luthor, in terms of the mythology as well as the game...damb...soooo close, lol ;P) Maybe the innocents were slightly under-powered, I'm not sure, but the mafia was ridiculously lucky in terms of killing off the block and both killing roles by Night 2. The numbers in this game were 7 to 3 mafia, a greater than 2:1 ratio, and the indie role did not have an inherent kill, and was designed to be best played waiting and gathering info (as Shadow did so well ), rather than to start randomly trying to fish for killing roles, so I do not think the balance was too much off. If I did a repeat, I might give Artemis the choice of blocking/redirecting as well as the original RD, but everything else I'd leave pretty much as is. I think it might be fun to play with Bb's system and add some variables to compensate for some of these factors, but overall I like the 'holistic' approach...I feel comfortable enough with my mafia experience, my game theoretical knowledge/intuition, and my general competence that if my over-analytic 'gut' tells me differently than what the basic calculation does, I would lay odds on myself ;P. Edit: Thank you all for the feedback though...as much as I am loath to admit it, I do get a 'spring in my step' from knowing ppl enjoyed my games Edited June 24, 2013 by Yoruichi-san Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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