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# Villager, Villager, Mafia

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Sorry I got confused by the times zones. I thought we still had some time left. But now I see that there is only about half an hour left, correct?

nah, we have a little over 10 hrs left as of now; but for all the US members, a fair bit of that'll be night still and early morning. And even then, ties are very risky.

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there's only a 1/24 chance both are kills and a 1/36 chance on of them is the mafia kill.

Not quite following how you got those odds. . .

Edited by Thalia
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Not quite following how you got those odds. . .

1/4 odds the first in the tie is a kill. leaves 2 kills out of 12 is 1/6 odds. put them together it's 1/24. Then each kill has 1/3 odds of being the mafia kill. put together is 2/3 odds of lynching the mafia kill, assuming lynch of 2 kills. multiply that in, it's 1/36 odds of lynching the mafia kill blind.

However, on looking back, that math isn't quite right. It should be close enough for approximation, though.

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Why are you gonna go for a tie after she said ties mean both die? That's not a very good risk to take....there's only a 1/24 chance both are kills and a 1/36 chance on of them is the mafia kill.

might I correct the odds:

the chances that both of them are kills is 4/13 x 3/12 = 12/156 = 1/13

the chances that one of them is the mafia kill is simply 2/13

Edited by mewminator
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First in the tie has odds of 3/13 of been a kill

Second in tie would then have odds of 2/12.

So that 1 in 26 that they are both kill.

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First in the tie has odds of 3/13 of been a kill

Second in tie would then have odds of 2/12.

So that 1 in 26 that they are both kill.

whoops , there's 3 of each role not 4, so 1/26 both kills, 2/13 mafia kill.

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I'm puzzled... why do the odds matter? .. we don't know if we are goodies or baddies... the mafia have their kill no matter what, the instigator KNOWS they are mafia.. and at the moment also knows at least one other ...

Q1: if the instigator tries to awake a goodie does he learn their role ??

Q2 &3: the only way to get out from the mafia kill is save, right ? I mean it's not blockable ? the rest of the kills are blockable ?

consider the following:

A= kill (doesn't matter if he;s mafia or goodie - he doesn;t know)

B=block

actions in the evening:

1.A kills N / B blocks A - what is the result ?

or

2. A kills B / B blocks A - what is the result ?

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might I correct the odds:

the chances that both of them are kills is 4/13 x 3/12 = 12/156 = 1/13

the chances that one of them is the mafia kill is simply 2/13

No the odds of getting the mafia kill is 1/39; odds of getting mafia kill assuming getting 2 kills is 2/3 so it's 2/3x1/26=1/39.

Edit: math checking

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People need to start looking at this game correctly. No one (except maybe the instigator) should want anyone else dead at this point. Because any one of us could be on any one of our teams. What if we lynch the kills? Ok, that's great, except if you end up being Mafia and you helped lynch your killer. Oops. Everyone should just assume they are Mafia and play it that way. If you play as a Goodie at this point, you are gonna be pissed off when you are revealed as Maf and have killed your team off. I'm not outing my action and I have no idea what faction I am a part of, so you won't gain any info at this point. And whoever put the last vote on me and claimed it was pressure... Pressure is within a few minutes of another vote. This late, that's called a lynch vote. You are voting to kill me off, so why? Why vote off someone who has a clear head about this game and is good at figuring things out? Seems bad for the game to me.

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@ Hirkala So you saying that the goodies must just wait around, for the mafia to pick them off?

I am two times more likely to be a Goodie than Mafia so why should I assume that I am Mafia and play that way?

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Self block aren't allowed right? Because I make sure to you all that I am not block, so, yea . . . I dunno where that gets us.

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People need to start looking at this game correctly. No one (except maybe the instigator) should want anyone else dead at this point. Because any one of us could be on any one of our teams. What if we lynch the kills? Ok, that's great, except if you end up being Mafia and you helped lynch your killer. Oops. Everyone should just assume they are Mafia and play it that way. If you play as a Goodie at this point, you are gonna be pissed off when you are revealed as Maf and have killed your team off. I'm not outing my action and I have no idea what faction I am a part of, so you won't gain any info at this point. And whoever put the last vote on me and claimed it was pressure... Pressure is within a few minutes of another vote. This late, that's called a lynch vote. You are voting to kill me off, so why? Why vote off someone who has a clear head about this game and is good at figuring things out? Seems bad for the game to me.

This is the way I think should the game should be played as well, just I have bloodlust and want people to die. :devil:

Edit: Playing as Mafia not Goodie at this point, and voting people off is playing that way. *idk*

Anyways: Is abstaining from voting allowed? And what would be the result?

Edited by Framm 18
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Self block aren't allowed right? Because I make sure to you all that I am not block, so, yea . . . I dunno where that gets us.

Y-san said they are allowed, just pointless.

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Y-san said they are allowed, just pointless.

She said they'd be block on block and therefore no show.

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I'm puzzled... why do the odds matter? .. we don't know if we are goodies or baddies... the mafia have their kill no matter what, the instigator KNOWS they are mafia.. and at the moment also knows at least one other ...

Q1: if the instigator tries to awake a goodie does he learn their role ??

Q2 &3: the only way to get out from the mafia kill is save, right ? I mean it's not blockable ? the rest of the kills are blockable ?

consider the following:

A= kill (doesn't matter if he;s mafia or goodie - he doesn;t know)

B=block

actions in the evening:

1.A kills N / B blocks A - what is the result ?

or

2. A kills B / B blocks A - what is the result ?

1. No. They just learn the Instigation failed.

2. The mafia kill is blockable. The Instigation is not.

3. If a kill is blocked, it's blocked. In my games, all actions 'go through in the transition b/w the Night and Day' so you get your Night action no matter what, unless you were blocked.

This is the way I think should the game should be played as well, just I have bloodlust and want people to die. :devil:

Edit: Playing as Mafia not Goodie at this point, and voting people off is playing that way. *idk*

Anyways: Is abstaining from voting allowed? And what would be the result?

It is highly frowned upon [insert picture of glaring frown]. If everyone abstains it'll probably count as a 13-way tie...

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She said they'd be block on block and therefore no show.

so at this point the only thing we DO know is that Mike D and The Cube are not blocks... but any of them could still be the instigator... that's all the night post is clear about.... and Mike .. I do believe 'duck duck ..goose' thing was Y-san's humour at work ... she could have counted sheep for all we know

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so at this point the only thing we DO know is that Mike D and The Cube are not blocks... but any of them could still be the instigator... that's all the night post is clear about.... and Mike .. I do believe 'duck duck ..goose' thing was Y-san's humour at work ... she could have counted sheep for all we know

I don't know, at least one of them isn't a block, but the other could be, only 2 blocks happened last night, which means either of them could be the 3rd

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I don't know, at least one of them isn't a block, but the other could be, only 2 blocks happened last night, which means either of them could be the 3rd

Well, I am just telling you, I am not the block so MikeD might or another guy in the crowd is.

Edit: soon putting in my new vote. nvm don't want both people to die.

Edited by TheCube
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I don't know, at least one of them isn't a block, but the other could be, only 2 blocks happened last night, which means either of them could be the 3rd

Block on Block cancels themselves out.. They were both blocked so this means neither is a blocker... or that action would not have appeared in the post ...

[ Unless the Rubik cube on the door knob or the super-glue stuff are used by savers... not likely ]

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I took block on block to mean that if player A blocked player B and vice-versa then they canceled out not if player A blocked B but B blocked C type thing. *idk*

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I took block on block like this: if A = block and B = block and A tries to block B (whatever target B has, if he even acts) that action is nulled and it does not appear in the post :-s ... not necessarily a reciprocal action... but i can see where you're going with this ...

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Roster:

1. Hirkala - abstaining

2. Framm 18 - voting for Yodell

3. MikeD - voting for Hirkala

4. EDM ../../../public/style_emoticons/default/biggrin.png- voting for MIKI

5. Flamebirde - voting for Panther

6. mew - voting for Hirkala

7. Panther - voting for Hirkala

8. Thalia - abstaining

10. Aaryan - voting for Panther

11.TheCube ../../../public/style_emoticons/default/cool.png - voting for Panther (due to PRESSURE of course!)

12.Yodell - voting for Panther

13. MiKi

I think this is the most current roster.

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Roster:

1. Hirkala - abstaining

2. Framm 18 - voting for Yodell

3. MikeD - voting for Hirkala

4. EDM - voting for MIKI

5. Flamebirde - voting for Panther

6. mew - voting for Hirkala

7. Panther - voting for Hirkala

8. Thalia - abstaining

10. Aaryan - voting for Panther

11.TheCube - voting for Panther

12.Yodell - voting for Panther

13. MiKi

the codes at the end were annoying the firetruck out of me. Also my reason for voting Panther was annoying me as well.

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Don't wanna screw with the lack of tie, don't wanna stick with the abstain since its disliked. Please put my vote on panther to widen the margin.

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I took block on block to mean that if player A blocked player B and vice-versa then they canceled out not if player A blocked B but B blocked C type thing. *idk*

Yes, that's what it means. Sorry, 'block' as in the verb form of block, not the BLOCK role.

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