Guest Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 There are 20 roles Phaze could be. 11 of them are baddy/indies, while 9 are goodies. My mathematics are not fallacious in any way whatsoever. Phaze is now playing the same game Izzy did, saying he dropped hints while he really didn't, I believe, though there is that chance I missed it. Strange how you haven't questioned Phaze at all since day started, isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MissKitten Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 @ phaze What hint? which post? i cant think quite clearly right now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 Adding MK's vote Hosts: Hirkala and Blablah 1)Framm - Voting for RT 2)Lionheart 3)GMaster479 is voting for Fox 4)Vipe195 - Voting for Phaze 5)Filly - Voting for Fox 6)LJ 7)Phaze - Voting for Fox 8)yuiop - voting for limey 9)Glycereine 10)Vineetrika 12)Marq 13)RainThinker 14)Harvey is voting for qwerty 15)Limey is voting for LJ 16)woon 17)qwerty 18)Fox 19)MissKitten - voting for Phaze 20)EDM 21)NickFleming - voting for Phaze 22)Izzy is voting for Marq 23)24_65... 24)golfjunkie 25)onetruth Dead: 11)Molly Mae-Killed by Reflectors Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phaze Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 @ phaze What hint? which post? i cant think quite clearly right now... If I tell you, do you promise not to tell anyone else??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 No PMing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phaze Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 (edited) No PMing. I was being ironic Edit: If I tell one person I also tell everyone (It would require me to out myself fully) Edited September 20, 2010 by phaze Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 (edited) Oh okay. Well, gtg now, bedtime. Though I don't see why you can't tell everyone, as I'm sure at least one of the baddies would pick up on it and share with everyone else. So why not Phaze? Enlighten us. EDIT: For the record this was posted after Phaze's edit. Edited September 20, 2010 by NickFleming Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vipe195 Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 Unless the hint was a lie keeping you alive to pick off the others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Izzy Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 (edited) Who would that be? The Flying Spaghetti Monster and his Noodly Appendage <3. Nick, that isn't how statistics work. I flip a coin. It lands on heads. BEFORE I flip, there's a 1/2 chance of it landing on heads. AFTER I flip, there's a 1/1 chance of it landing on heads. BEFORE roles are dealt, there's a 1/25 chance of Phaze being <role>. AFTER roles are dealt, there's a 1/1 chance of Phaze being <person>. It's kind of counter intuitive, but even if you narrow it down to five roles, four of which are baddies, there isn't an 80% chance that Phaze is a baddie, but rather a 100% chance that Phaze is who he is. Edited September 20, 2010 by Izzy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phaze Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 Unless the hint was a lie keeping you alive to pick off the others. How would prism know that I was not facade? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 (edited) Izzy, you understand exactly what I'm saying. I have no way whatsoever of for sure knowing his role, even if I had spy. He had a 1/25 chance of every role, but some of those have been disproved. There is a 45% chance I am wrong, but the 55% outweighs the 45. My reasoning is completely logical. Edited September 20, 2010 by NickFleming Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phaze Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 Izzy, you understand exactly what I'm saying. I have no way whatsoever of for sure knowing his role, even if I had spy. He had a 1/25 chance of every role, but some of those have been disproved. There is a 45% chance I am wrong, but the 55% outweighs the 45. My reasoning is completely logical. Maybe Izzy knows something that you dont Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vipe195 Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 (edited) Maybe Izzy's prism? It would explain him defending phaze. But since the facts point to phaze my vote stays the same. Edited September 20, 2010 by Vipe195 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Izzy Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 Vipe, what 'facts'? Nick's math? That isn't factual whatsoever so much as a poorly formulated statistical assumption not taking into account that the event has already occurred. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phaze Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 Maybe Izzy's prism? It would explain him defending phaze. But since the facts point to phaze my vote stays the same. How would prism know that I was not facade? How would prism know that I was not facade? How would prism know that I was not facade? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gmaster479 Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 ...this is a lot of talking about nothing. You guys were nothing close to targets. I think Phaze and Izzy know something that we probably would want to know. The point is the argument is just painting a bigger target on all of your backs and doing that this early in a big game is interesting. For now, I'll keep my vote the same, wait on Kat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Izzy Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 Actually, let's continue on with the messed up math. Nick, I know you aren't who I am, I know you didn't spy on me, I know you aren't who Phaze is, and I know you aren't Prism. 25 roles, 4 you are not. 12 goodies, 9 non-goodies. A mere 43% chance that you're a non-goodie, *nothing* compared to Phaze's 45%! Just to put that into perspective for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 wait did nick say harvery was disproved to be a baddie? or is that my imagination? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 (edited) Izzy, is there some reason you are being deliberately obtuse/misleading? To Phaze, there is a 100% chance of him being the role he is. To the rest of us, we can only use statistical probability based on the information given. edit: I agree GM, Phaze/Izzy almost certainly know something the rest of us don't, but there are many things that could be... Edited September 20, 2010 by golfjunkie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Izzy Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 Misleading in what sense? That I've found it frustratingly obvious through this rather pointless discussion who Phaze is, and Nick is either blind or willingly ignoring it? A MASSIVE hint was dropped; I don't need to be Prism to see it if that's what you're getting it. If you're referencing the math, see my example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 Gaaaaah there are votes on me for no reasoooooooon D: ! (First day bandwaggon FTL) Hi I'm here now. On the Phaze prism/facade thing: I'm really no math type ._. So I'm not getting this percent thing but just from the posts I'm gonna have to say I believe that Phaze is good But that's pure intuition and trust xD On the random votes for me: Please please please don't let me be the majority It's just a random bandwagon I know so I'm not gonna make too much of a deal out of it (yet) but I really don't want to get into a huge thing about it when they're just random votes. Just know that I'm not someone you want to be voting for ._. Can we bandwaggon someone else please? I'll vote in a sec Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phaze Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 wait did nick say harvery was disproved to be a baddie? or is that my imagination? Can't recall I can remember mentioning that harvey was a potential Mirror Darkly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 I did see your example, but that is not fallacious either. You are correct, the chances of Phaze being the role he is assigned are 1:1. That does not change the fact that Phaze could have been assigned any of the 25 roles, and since we do not know what role he has been assigned, we can only assign probability based upon information that has been revealed or can be reliably inferred. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phaze Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 @Kat was voting just to put on pressure, You're not going to get out of it that lightly (Remember that I have been accused of being a bulldog) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 20, 2010 Report Share Posted September 20, 2010 Hmm ._. I don't think Phaze is bad but I have a majority too......what to do what to do.... Hosts: Hirkala and Blablah 1)Framm - Voting for RT 2)Lionheart 3)GMaster479 is voting for Fox 4)Vipe195 - Voting for Phaze 5)Filly - Voting for Fox 6)LJ 7)Phaze - Voting for Fox 8)yuiop - voting for limey 9)Glycereine 10)Vineetrika 12)Marq 13)RainThinker 14)Harvey is voting for qwerty 15)Limey is voting for LJ 16)woon 17)qwerty 18)Fox - voting for LJ 19)MissKitten - voting for Phaze 20)EDM 21)NickFleming - voting for Phaze 22)Izzy is voting for Marq 23)24_65... 24)golfjunkie 25)onetruth Dead: 11)Molly Mae-Killed by Reflectors Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.