Tom Mercer

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  1. Tom Mercer added an answer to a question Birthday Distribution   

    Ok, to bound the question further, what is the probability that 20 people have no birthdays for 124 CONSECUTIVE days of the year (any 124 consecutive days, to avoid the post-hoc errors plasmid describes).

    I'm looking for some explanation 1. is this distribution unlikely (how unlikely) 2. why/how could this happen - self-selection through interviews...

    I'm baffled. This is the office where I work, and I know it's statistically significant, but don't know how unlikely this is. I'm also curious what could cause this? Is this a known trait of other offices or social groups?

    Gladwell's book talks about athletes getting selected for size, which means almost all NHL players are born during 3 months. However, I can't think of anything in an office that would anti-select for 4 months of the year, especially given that the office is mixed gender and mixed nationality and mixed ethnicity.

    What's going on here?
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  2. Tom Mercer added an answer to a question Birthday Distribution   

    There are only these 20 people / birthdays. Each date is one person. It's in 2013 because LibreOffice spreadsheet where I wrote down the birthdays has to have a year. You can ignore the year 13.
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  3. Tom Mercer added a question in New Logic/Math Puzzles   

    Birthday Distribution
    What are the odds that this group of employed people at an American corporation (multiple nationalities, ethnicities, balanced genders) has naturally distributed birthdays?

    04/08/13 04/08/13 04/27/13 05/02/13 05/12/13 06/12/13 06/26/13 07/03/13 07/19/13 08/05/13 08/08/13 09/16/13 10/06/13 10/09/13 10/10/13 10/26/13 11/04/13 11/19/13 11/26/13 12/04/13
    • 5 replies