plasmid

By the way, aura and flamebirde, remember that both araver and I agreed (ostensibly for different reasons) that the Boss was killed early in the game. How did araver know that the Boss was dead so early?

Araver was the first to respond when I started the standoff, so he had a chance to offer strategy to anyone who acted later. Also, that was the most pivotal point in the game where strategizing between the rats would be absolutely critical, it's very hard to believe that he would have let that pass without giving any instructions to Flamebirde. Flamebirde has been quiet, but so have you. Believe me, I've looked for any clues that would suggest that araver was having an influence on Flamebirde and found none. If you'd like to try to find incriminating evidence, then be my guest. The actual lynch vote is still not for a while. For now though, I know full well that I'm working with limited information, but at the end of the day you have to make a choice.

Still, if I ask myself whether the second rat is Flamebirde or MiKi, all available evidence points to MiKi. BTW, I wasn't basing my hunch on the fact that you weren't able to reply first, it was based on the fact that Flamebirde DID reply first, which the second rat shouldn't do. Even though Flamebirde doesn't seem to be completely abreast of the situation, araver certainly could have coached him if he were a conspirator. Time to play WIFOM. You've got one chance to guess who I'm going to save tonight, good luck. Aura and Flamebirde, in case I choose one of you to save and she ends up night-killing me, be sure to lynch her tomorrow.

It doesn't matter if I die, as long as you and aura vote to lynch MiKi the entire undercover team (including dead ones) still wins. That's what we call WIFOM: "Wine in front of me", a classic scene from the movie Princess Bride. In short, MiKi knows I might be lying anyway, so it doesn't really matter what I say. I just threw that in there to toy with her a bit Edit: Aura is also still a potential target. If aura gets targeted by the night kill, then she wouldn't be alive the next day to tell us who killed her. And technically I think the night kill comes from the undercover team instead of a particular undercover player anyway.

Recap of the evidence Aura had claimed the role of Mr Brown much earlier in the game when she said that the person who redirected her was bad. If either the real re-directer (Boss' son) or the real Mr Brown saw that claim and she were lying, they would have been able to call her out on it. Also, I intentionally outed myself as the doctor in a way that both a logician (araver) and a word-riddler (MiKi) could understand, first by asking Mr Black and Mr Tech to spy me, and second by posting a word riddle under the ruse of making it look like I was trying to sort of BTSC with a goodie. Both of those were traps to make sure that they knew I was outing myself as the doctor. The reason I didn't just come out and claim the role overtly is: in my past riddles here the only ones that have still gone unsolved are the ones that require two different approaches to be taken within the same riddle. That is to say, if the rats thought they intercepted a secret message saying that I'm the doctor, then they would think the problem is solved and not look any deeper. If they saw me openly claim to be the doctor, they would wonder what I was up to. Only in the first case could I count on them to have the redirect aimed at me to ensure the night kill goes through, which is exactly what happened to confirm my suspicion that aura was telling the truth when she said the redirecter is a rat. As for me, I'm the doctor and I haven't saved anyone yet, so I couldn't have saved a rat and turned undercover. I can't prove beyond any shadow of a doubt that I'm the doctor, but given how events actually turned out, it's hard to think of any way it could have played out like this if I were undercover. As for you, you'd better know for darn sure that you're legit already!

It was easy for me to figure out that I could accuse you of being the second rat, MiKi. That is to say, I had more than enough information to bluff. It was based on how you and flamebirde reacted in the standoff between araver and me. First clue was the tone of the response. Flamebirde's response was what you would expect from a legit mobster overwhelmed by a complex scenario and determining the outcome of the game. If he was a rat and just acting, then he did such a phenomenal job that he deserves a shot at pulling off a miracle. But that alone wouldn't be enough to force me to pick you to bluff against. The second and more important clue is that Flamebirde responded first. I don't know whether you just didn't have a chance to reply before he did, but replying first would not be expected rat behavior. The second rat would know that aura and I were going to cooperate against araver, and would wait to see what the third mobster does. If the third mobster doesn't go along with my plan, then neither does the second rat, and the baddies have a chance of flash-voting to kill off a mobster and would end up winning the game. If the third mobster goes along with my plan, then the second rat goes along with the plan too in an effort to not reveal that they're the second rat. If Flamebirde were the second rat, I don't think he would have been willing to respond first out of you two. I also considered the possibility that araver and flamebird were in cahoots. I know that araver is a really good logician; it's conceivable that he might have analyzed the situation from my perspective given all the talking I've done about "optimal play" and basing so many of my inferences on people following it. It would be a huge WIFOM, but he might have asked flamebird to pick a suboptimal strategy to clear himself in my eyes. But I think that it's doubtful. Mostly because if araver had really analyzed the situation from my perspective, he would not have targetted aura, he would have said "I'm definitely innocent, if you're so sure that two of us three are rats then target either of the other two, I don't care which because they're both rats." Then I would have only had a 1/3 chance of identifying both rats. That's why I decided to bluff against you instead of Flamebirde. You weren't foolish enough to confirm overtly that you're the second rat, but your response to my bluff still reinforces my suspicion. If you were the third mobster, I would have expected you to be more like "WTF?!? I'm not the rat, go back and recheck your math." Or at the very least, "What makes you think I'm a rat? I didn't do anything." It's subtle, but the way you phrased your response now is more like what the rat would say. Now that I've answered your question, it's still your call on whether we carry on. I'll be in the tardis in case a victim needs me.

Aura, here's the scoop. Everyone now knows that you're outed as Mr Brown and I'm outed as Dr. White. MiKi is the second rat. Flamebirde is still unknown, and should stay that way. So it's three mobsters against one rat, and will be two mobsters against one rat if the night kill goes through tonight. Either way, MiKi gets lynched tomorrow. I've just asked her if she wants to go ahead and call it a game now, or drag it out to the bitter end. If the game does proceed, then I'm going to have to guess who MiKi will NK and try to save them. I might save you, I might save myself, I'm probably not going to save Flamebirde to be honest (sorry dude ). But I'm just guessing who MiKi will try to kill, and it won't really matter since the mobsters will be in the majority tomorrow anyway. Just be sure if I pick wrong and MiKi night kills me, that both you and Flamebirde vote to lynch her tomorrow. Edit: at least you know I think you're legit, Flamebirde

Comment is added in blue.

This might be revealing a bit too much, but in case you're stuck

Miki, want to hand over your badge now, or get lynched tomorrow?

Yeah, I sort of thought about having the rats recruit me to win the game. Not so much because winning is my top priority, but because at one point someone said it would be nearly impossible to recruit the doctor, so thought it might be epic if I were to wind up winning that way. But, I can't trust the rats enough (or rather, I don't think they would ever trust me enough) to pull off a save redirect onto a self-kill. I think my odds are better with the legit mobsters. BTW, you were right, I had absolutely no idea that cat was claiming Mr Green! Oh well, this is just my first Mafia game after all

EDM's quite warm. Just need to figure out what I'm getting at with the different numbers of holes that are seen at those particular times.

Host: Yuli and Molly Mae 1. plasmid - voting for AraVer 2. Flamebirde - voting for AraVer 3. MiKi - voting for AraVer 4. 'Cat'astrophe - DEAD - Lynched D1 and found to be a legitimate gangster 5. KlueMaster - DEAD - Killed N2 6. maurice - DEAD - Killed N1 7. Auramyna - voting for AraVer 8. Araver - voting for Auramyna Adding MiKi's vote as requested above.

That's understandable. I've done what I can by asking Mr Black and Mr Tech to spy me to verify my identity if they're still alive, and explained the logic behind my actions, including why I outed myself like I did. It's not proof to the same degree as the logic problems on this site, but that's the best objective evidence I can produce. I admit you're justified in not completely trusting me. All I can say is: it's hard for me to come up with a great explanation for why a rat would have done what I did. That's just the way Mafia goes. Host: Yuli and Molly Mae 1. plasmid - voting for AraVer 2. Flamebirde - voting for AraVer 3. MiKi 4. 'Cat'astrophe - DEAD - Lynched D1 and found to be a legitimate gangster 5. KlueMaster - DEAD - Killed N2 6. maurice - DEAD - Killed N1 7. Auramyna - voting for AraVer 8. Araver - voting for Auramyna Adding flamebirde's vote as requested above.

OMG!!! Flamebirde, definitely please DO NOT out your role under any circumstances! It would be critical to keep it secret in the final round after we kill off the first rat. You're gonna have to trust me on that. Edit: ah, just saw the other posts. Phew! Thank you, Flamebirde!

You're right, it's not a plasmid riddle, 'cause I sure don't know the answer to it =P Will mull this one over some more.

Host: Yuli and Molly Mae 1. plasmid - voting for AraVer 2. Flamebirde 3. MiKi 4. 'Cat'astrophe - DEAD - Lynched D1 and found to be a legitimate gangster 5. KlueMaster - DEAD - Killed N2 6. maurice - DEAD - Killed N1 7. Auramyna - voting for AraVer 8. Araver - voting for Auramyna Adding aura's vote as requested above. Flamebirde and Miki, the game is in your hands. If you want to go along with my plan, remember that we need ALL THREE legitimate mobsters aiming at the same target. Otherwise the rats can change their votes at the last second to generate at least a tie and possibly avoid getting lynched. (It's a coin toss after day 1 I guess?) And Flamebirde, if you say you're using random.org again, I swear I'm gonna go :\

Now I can reveal my contingency plan for me not dying and aura not dying. I think aura was telling the truth. If she were lying, then either the Boss's son or Mr Brown would have outed her and known that there would be at worst a 1:1 exchange of a dead mobster and a dead rat (if both they and aura get killed) or just a dead rat (if aura got lynched and shown to actually be a rat). Either way would be a win for the mobsters. If I weren't sure enough based on that reasoning, then now I'm positive. Optimal play for the rats involves redirecting me to save themselves in case Mr Green fired at them, and to ensure that they could kill their target. If the Boss' son were good, he would not have redirected the doctor. The rat's blunder was that they killed klue instead of aura. They were fooled by the fact that aura's ability is now useless since she outed herself, so they went after a different target hoping to kill someone with a better ability. What they failed to see is that now that we're near the endgame, what's more important than abilities the the mobsters knowing who they can trust, and narrow down who the rats might be when they're voting on the lynch. THAT'S why I made sure to out myself as the doctor last night: I become one more mobster proven to be legit. Aura is a legit mobster in my eyes, and I've proven that I'm the doctor and I haven't saved anyone yet so I'm known to be good. Flame, Miki, and Araver: 2/3 of you are bad. Host: Yuli and Molly Mae 1. plasmid - voting for AraVer 2. Flamebirde 3. MiKi 4. 'Cat'astrophe (still dead unless he has a secret ability? ) 5. KlueMaster - DEAD - Killed N2 6. maurice - DEAD - Killed N1 7. Auramyna 8. Araver Mobsters: we need a unanimous vote against our lynch target today, otherwise we will be screwed by flash-voting.

Plans can certainly backfire and need revision. If a Mafia game allowed a player to make a plan that was absolutely foolproof, then the game wasn't designed correctly. That said, it's better to have a strategy than rush in blindly. And I see that night 2 has ended. As tempted as I am to say more, I'll have to wait and see what happened overnight first. If I misjudged, then I'll see you in the ghost thread.

I have suspicions on who the undercover agents are, and if I'm right, I might be able to essentially use behind-the-scenes chat while posting on the main thread. I don't know whether Mr Black and Mr Tech are undercover and/or dead and therefore unable to help with plan E, so... I'm not a plan F Spin a top and hear a click And hope that others pay Wield sword in gauntlet quick To pierce the sleeping prey Beat the liar with a stick And both will fly away

I'll consider counting that as part of the correct answer Not totally what I had in mind, but it could be substituted for a part. There's a bit more to it though.

Clarification: When you say that we don't know which position is on and which position is off, do you mean 1) There are two possibilities which are [all of the switches are "on" in the "up" position and "off" in the "down" position] or [all of the switches are "off" in the "up" position and "on" in the "down" position] or 2) Any switch can be "on" in the "up" position and "off" in the "down" position or vice-versa, regardless of which positions are "on" and "off" for each of the other switches If you mean #1, then I agree with the answers above. If you mean #2, it gets more complicated.

Plan E: This might not help as much as I'd like, but it could help some. Mr Black and Mr Tech, if you are still alive and don't have anything else pressing to do, please target me tonight.

The Boss has still not outed Boss's son, or even said anything at all Boss-like. Possibilities: 1) Boss is dead or undercover 2) Boss is alive and mobster, but aura was lying about being Mr Brown, so Boss did not out Boss' son as undercover 3) Boss is alive and mobster, aura is telling the truth, but Mr Green is dead and can't target the baddies tonight so the Boss doesn't want to out himself tonight by telling us who the Boss' son is (and becoming a NK target himself) before day 2 when we have a chance to actually make a lynch based on that info. If this is the case I think it's a blunder: the risk of Boss getting NK'ed tonight and us losing the identity of the undercover agent seems to outweigh the risk to the mobsters of losing the x2 vote mod. Besides, I think other roles might be higher priority targets for the baddies to NK anyway, it's unclear whether the Boss would be at the top of their hit list. 4) Boss just hasn't logged in or something... I don't think the Boss is undercover. If he were, he should have claimed the role by now in order to frame a mobster as being the Boss' son. Since the day 1 post only listed alignment and not role for cat, the Boss could still claim that the lynch victim was the Boss' son but aura lied about him being undercover. Even better for the undercovers would be if Mr Green believed the Boss and killed the fake Boss' son... then that would be one mobster killed by Mr Green and no evidence that the Boss was ever lying about the framed person being Boss' son. I have a hunch that aura is not lying. It is possible that the Boss just isn't playing well, but this seems like a little too much to write off as a blunder. I therefore think the Boss is dead. Anticipated optimal play by the undercovers at this point would be to realize that the Boss is dead, and therefore claim that you are the Boss in order to frame a mobster as being the Boss's son and have him killed by Mr Green (or a lynch). Since both undercovers are still alive, it wouldn't be unreasonable for them to think that they can just keep this plan in their back pocket to pull out later in the game if necessary when only one of them is alive and needs to use it in a last ditch effort -- by then there will be fewer people in play and a greater chance of being able to fool at least some of them by correctly guessing their roles if they demand proof. Therefore, if I die tonight, my parting warning for the rest of the mobsters is to be EXTREMELY suspicious of anyone claiming to be the Boss; I would count anyone who does so as more likely to be undercover than mobster. I'm abandoning previous plans that depended on a live Boss. I'll let you know if I come up with any others.