Mr. and Mrs. Smith are friends whom you haven't seem for a long time. The last time you saw them was at their wedding ceremony, where they confided that they wanted to have 2 daughters and 2 sons, and they would have as many kids as needed until they have a minimum of 2 daughters and 2 sons. (For instance, suppose they have 2 daughters in a row, then would then give birth as many times as necessary until they get 2 sons, at which point they will immediately stop having kids. Likewise, suppose their first three kids are son, daughter, and son. They would then try again until their number of daughters reach 2. ) Assume that the probability of getting a son is .5.
You haven't seen the couple for years since the wedding. One day, you happened to meet Mr. Smith, who told you that his wife and he succeeded in getting the family they wanted. He then offered you a simple game. If you can correctly guess his total number of children, he would give you 100 dollars. You can only guess once. What is the best guess?
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bushindo
Mr. and Mrs. Smith are friends whom you haven't seem for a long time. The last time you saw them was at their wedding ceremony, where they confided that they wanted to have 2 daughters and 2 sons, and they would have as many kids as needed until they have a minimum of 2 daughters and 2 sons. (For instance, suppose they have 2 daughters in a row, then would then give birth as many times as necessary until they get 2 sons, at which point they will immediately stop having kids. Likewise, suppose their first three kids are son, daughter, and son. They would then try again until their number of daughters reach 2. ) Assume that the probability of getting a son is .5.
You haven't seen the couple for years since the wedding. One day, you happened to meet Mr. Smith, who told you that his wife and he succeeded in getting the family they wanted. He then offered you a simple game. If you can correctly guess his total number of children, he would give you 100 dollars. You can only guess once. What is the best guess?
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