# WitchOfDoubt

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## WitchOfDoubt's Activity

1. WitchOfDoubt added a post in a topic The Orchestra

Edit: whoops, used old account. Oh, well.
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2. WitchOfDoubt added a post in a topic Detective Smith (Warning: Long Story!)

3. WitchOfDoubt added a post in a topic Hempel's ravens (The Confirmation Paradox)

Let's suppose that there were only 1,000 ravens in the whole world, and you saw 999 of them chosen at random, and those were black. That would be very STRONG evidence that all ravens are black.

Let's suppose there were 1,000,000 ravens, and you saw 999 chosen at random, and all were black. Well, that'd still be pretty good evidence to intuit that blackness is a general property of ravens, though the existence of albino members of other species should probably make you qualify that 'all.'

Now, how many "non-black" objects are there? Waaaaaaaaay more. You COULD prove that all ravens are black by checking every single non-black object in the universe. But a random sample of non-raven objects is so non-representative of that huge set that it is ridiculously weak evidence. Induction works best when you have entities that could reasonably be expected to be similar to each other on some level. It's easier to make generalizations about "dogs" than it is to generalize about "things represented by words that begin with d" or "things that are not cats."

This doesn't mean that "all ravens are black" is 'easier to prove' than "all non-black things are not-ravens". The two statements really are logically equivalent. But it's more efficient to look at the ravens than it is to sample the the rest of the universe.
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Let's make it worse.

Allow me to define a new word: 'blonk.'

Blonk is a generic term for 'the smallest number not specifiable using fewer than 23 syllables.'

Have I just specified it in one syllable?
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5. WitchOfDoubt added a post in a topic A simple logic problem

One question.

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6. WitchOfDoubt added a post in a topic See the difference

7. WitchOfDoubt added a post in a topic A simple Monty Hall variant

8. WitchOfDoubt added a post in a topic The Witch's Epigraph, Chapter Two: The Helix and the Rose

(I was working late on a gift for a friend today; I'll be posting tomorrow!)
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9. WitchOfDoubt added a post in a topic The Witch's Epigraph, Chapter Two: The Helix and the Rose

(There was a typo in the last line of the quatrain - it should have been:

------- ----, -- ------ -- ----

Apologies for making it more difficult than it had to be! Potok had the right general idea.)
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10. WitchOfDoubt added a post in a topic The Witch's Epigraph, Chapter Two: The Helix and the Rose

You seek the truth to what I tell;
You seek the place that hides my spell,
Where safe and secret souls abound -
------- ----, -- ----- -- -----.

- The Sapphire Witch
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11. WitchOfDoubt added a post in a topic I'm not a Romance of the Three Kingdoms

DudleyDude: Shoot! You just beat me to it!

An excellent riddle.
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12. WitchOfDoubt added a post in a topic The Witch's Epigraph Chapter 1: The Room of Six Locks

(Morningstar: Soon - likely this weekend, perhaps a little sooner.

Molly Mae: I hope you feel better soon!)
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13. WitchOfDoubt added a post in a topic Can you deceive the witch?

I feel obliged to defend the honor of witches. Here is what happened, and why the Witch reasonably objected:

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14. WitchOfDoubt added a post in a topic Mike and Ike’s Trike

15. WitchOfDoubt added a post in a topic I'm not a Romance of the Three Kingdoms