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Guest Message by DevFuse


Member Since --
Offline Last Active Feb 04 2014 08:32 PM

Posts I've Made

In Topic: Betting on red

02 February 2014 - 12:17 AM

Interesting puzzle. I'm getting some non-intuitive results...
Spoiler for

In Topic: Comparing gambling systems

30 November 2013 - 02:16 AM

I get similar numbers as bonanova and prime.
I did 1000 trials of playing 1000 games per trial.
Average final bankroll ~ $2E10
Median final bankroll = $0.49
Number of winning trials = 465

If you're on a Windows machine with a Java JDK installed (free to download from Oracle if you don't have it already): copy the code below and paste it into a txt file called LetItRide.java, then on a command prompt in that directory type javac LetItRide.java to compile it, then type java LetItRide to run it.

Spoiler for java code



Thanks for the code. I think I see what is causing the discrepancy between the simulation results. I made a mistake in transcribing the game probabilities...

Spoiler for

In Topic: Comparing gambling systems

29 November 2013 - 08:50 AM

This puzzle seemed to merit an analysis that went further than I had taken it.

Especially since most of my analysis was dead wrong. :duh:





Excellent insight, bonanova. The idea of using log is brilliant. However, my coding (and theoretical results) disagree with the simulation shown you and prime.

Spoiler for


Attached File  winning.pdf   102.23KB   27 downloads

In Topic: betting on a questionable game

22 November 2013 - 08:55 AM

Where is Bushindo when you need him? Mr. Bayes.


You rang?


Spoiler for

In Topic: Winoc Sells

23 May 2013 - 08:03 PM

Winoc sells four types of products.  The resources needed to produce one unit of each and the sales prices is listed below:


Resource                       Product 1                         Product 2                       Product 3                         Product 4

Raw Material                         2                                       3                                    4                                      7

Hours of labor                       3                                       4                                    5                                      6

Sales Price ($)                      4                                       6                                    7                                      8


Currently, 4,600 units of raw material and 5,000 labor hours are available.To meet customer demands, exactly 950 total units must be produced.  Customers also demand that at least 400 units of product 4 be produced.    What is the solution that maximizes Winoc's sales revenue?


Here's my try

Spoiler for