80 replies to this topic

[Dan]

Based on boring recursive simple mathematics, I figured out the following:

1) If people only meet in pairs 1 time, you have a 50/50 chance to survive (10K, 8K2P, 6K4P, 4K6P, 2K8P, 10P)

2) If people meet over and over and over until people stop getting killed, you have 0 Killers. As a Pacifist, you have a 31.25% chance of survival... someone else want to double check the math for me? I did it quick, dirty, and am still human.

[bonanova]

I think this is the simplest analysis:

Killers eliminate themselves pairwise. So an even number of killers eventually eliminate themselves - you'd want to be a pacifist then.
An odd number of killers eventually become a single killer that eventually eliminates all the pacifists - you want to be a killer then.

[mcleve]

Spoiler for solution

You want to be a killer. The killer has a 3 in 4 shot of surviving an encounter where a pacifist only has 1 in 4 survival odds.
If you take any known person, P or K then the odds of the encounter are 50/50 or 1 in 2 that the other will be a P or K. However, if both are unknown, there are 4 states:
P meets K - P dies
K meets P - P dies
K meets K - Both K's die
P meets P - they go to the pub and raise a pint

Personally, I'd rather be a P, spread the rumor that there is a block party and wait for the K's to off each other before I ever come out of my house.

Wouldn't P meets K be the same as K meets P? One of them should be eliminated from the probability equation, making P the better choice.

P meets P - P population stays same
K meets K - K population minus 2
P meets K - P population minus 1

In one out of three meetings One P will die.
In one out of three meetings Two K will die.

[bonanova]

Wouldn't P meets K be the same as K meets P? One of them should be eliminated from the probability equation, making P the better choice.

P meets P - P population stays same
K meets K - K population minus 2
P meets K - P population minus 1

In one out of three meetings One P will die.
In one out of three meetings Two K will die.

Think what it means to survive.
It's more than just getting past the first encounter.
What happens when an indefinite amount of time has gone by?

[Bad Dog]

Are your odds of survival better if you are a killer? or a pacifist?


** your only chance for survival is to be a pacifist and the even number of killers kill each other off first.
Situation I - When a pacifist meets a pacifist, nothing happens.
Situation II - When a pacifist meets a killer, the pacifist is killed.
Situation III - When two killers meet, both die.

As a Pacifist, your only chance of survival (over an infinite period) would be that 5 pairs of killers met before your ticket was punched.
As a Killer, you would have 9 other killers out there... best case would be that 4 pairs of killers meet but this would still leave one other killer (your nemisis) which you would eventually run into. (assuming there must be a meeting)

Edited by Bad Dog, 13 February 2008 - 06:19 AM.

[Bad Dog]

Hint 1: What does it mean to survive?

Hint 2: Would the result be different if Killville were populated by 11 killers and 11 pacifists?

Reply --
1.) to survive means that you have no chance of being killed by a killer ... (assumed)
2.) result dif with 11 Killers and 11 Pacifists: Absolutely... odd number of killers would mean that one will always be around to kill and he would be the last man standing... so this would mean that it is better to be a killer and hope your the one that never meets another killer.

[seamonster96]

Going back to the original question, the odds of surviving while being a killer are 190/380, which when simplified is 1/2. the odds of surviving if you are a pacifist is 180/380, which simplifies to 9/19. i would much rather be a killer.

[Lost in space]

Seems even number of killers = death to all killers.
Therefore Ps survive

Meanwhile

Spoiler for .... they hide

http://www.secretnuclearbunker.com/index2.htm

There are road signs for this - and then you just have LOL

[SunnyKool]

there is a 33% chance of the 3 things happening. if all three do happen this many times pacifists end up surviving.

[heatherlovesjade]

it really depends in the order they met- should the killer always meet with a pathfir then everyone will die- if the pathfir should be the last people remaining then the killers met each outher first- it doesnt matter because yoiu dodnt no the sequence