Best Answer jamieg, 13 November 2013 - 06:21 PM

Welcome to BrainDen.com - Brain Teasers Forum. Like most online communities you must register to post in our community, but don't worry this is a simple free process. To be a part of BrainDen Forums you may create a new account or sign in if you already have an account. As a member you could start new topics, reply to others, subscribe to topics/forums to get automatic updates, get your own profile and make new friends. Of course, you can also enjoy our collection of amazing optical illusions and cool math games. If you like our site, you may support us by simply clicking Google "+1" or Facebook "Like" buttons at the top. If you have a website, we would appreciate a little link to BrainDen. Thanks and enjoy the Den :-) |

Guest Message by DevFuse

Started by BMAD, Nov 10 2013 05:58 PM

Best Answer jamieg, 13 November 2013 - 06:21 PM

Spoiler for Frequentist approach

Spoiler for Bayesian approach

Spoiler for Source

Go to the full post
4 replies to this topic

Posted 10 November 2013 - 05:58 PM

I arrive at a small town. Leaving the airport i see five taxis out front. The city sponsors the taxis. Each taxicab has a unique number on it. The largest number on the taxicab was 90. How many taxis are there in the city?

Posted 13 November 2013 - 05:26 AM

Spoiler for

NEVER SAY NO TO PANDA

._.

Posted 13 November 2013 - 06:21 PM Best Answer

Spoiler for Frequentist approach

Spoiler for Bayesian approach

Spoiler for Source

Posted 15 November 2013 - 12:59 PM

I appreciate the numerical theory in the answer, but I don't buy into that. A Monte Carlo run shows that 90 is the most likely value, though this decreases slowly. Picking 5 random values from a list, where N is the highest value in the original list, and 90 is the highest of the 5 observed values, and running for 1 million trials, I get a table that looks like this. (I've not listed all values to 190, the last N that had any hits.)

N *** % 90 4.63% 91 9.01% 92 13.13% 93 17.02% 94 20.74% 95 24.21% 96 27.53% 97 30.72% 98 33.71% 99 36.58% 100 39.30%

From this run, the chances are even that N is less than or more than 105.

How to reconcile this result with the numerical analysis?

Also, if the numerical analysis has 2 valid answers, then there must be a range of valid answers in that region. It seems to me that this problem doesn't have an answer, but a handwaving "something about here" result.

Posted 15 November 2013 - 06:24 PM

I marked the post as being correct. Not necessarily both answers. His "frequentest approach" was the one i was looking for.

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users