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#221 araver

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Posted 23 June 2013 - 11:52 AM

@Y-San thank you for this wonderful little gem. It was fun, even to watch in the afterlife.

 

Re: lynch switch - I agree with the host but needless to say, the host rules as final, even if others don't agree ;)

 

For the sake of conversation: the lynch switch is not susceptible to an invincible combo. If it were my game, I would have restricted both the lynch switch and the lynch save to "not two days in a row" and figure out a mechanism where baddies could forego a night action (the redirect) to have the lynch switch active in consecutive days. 

 

However, on the overall balance, I don't agree it was balanced.

 

And since gut alone can't be brought on as an argument, a quick inspection using BrandonB's weighting system:

Spoiler for yields

Edited by araver, 23 June 2013 - 11:56 AM.

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Summer of 2013:
Show the Mafia world you're back in action ... signup for The Coup of Rhotus Mafia.You know you want it, we know you still have it in you so .... Come join the madness!  :thumbsup: 
 
Puzzles open: Strange Creatures I Past puzzles: Mystery Operation Series: I, II, III, IV; Contamination Scenario;
Past games: Crack the Code Series: III, VII, IXPast mafia games: UN Mafia, UN Mafia II, Star Trek Mafia, TMM IV

Almost random quotes:
>> Not only is the universe stranger than we imagine, it is stranger than we can imagine.


#222 ShadowAngel7

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Posted 23 June 2013 - 04:00 PM

Wait, my weighting was seriously that low? No way....it sure felt closer to OP than underweight....


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#223 flamebirde

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Posted 23 June 2013 - 07:37 PM

Good game everyone.
Now Flame, if I could ask a question... WHY?!

It was all the RID lynch save's fault. I thought he would switch it again, but he didn't and I hammered the final nail in the goodies' coffin.


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Mafiosos and mafiosas of the world, unite! And then kill each other in a particularly tricky move that everyone suspects but never anticipates.

stand back. I'm going to apply logic.

 

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#224 Panther

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Posted 23 June 2013 - 09:48 PM

You actually made the right choice Flame, he was going to switch it but missed the deadline - had he switched like he meant to, you would have saved a goodie :D


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#225 kingofpain

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Posted 23 June 2013 - 09:49 PM

Edit: Panther said as much. It was good that the game was ultimately unaffected by my tardiness and slow internet connection :)


Edited by kingofpain, 23 June 2013 - 09:51 PM.

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#226 Yoruichi-san

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Posted 24 June 2013 - 03:43 AM

I'm with Shadow, I don't think the calculation is quite accurate.  I think Bb's system is a great guideline for beginner hosts, but I don't think it accurately represents all the factors that go into mafia game balance.

 

Some of the major things I think are not completely represented:

 

1)  Interaction factors (I believe this is the statistical term), i.e. the interplay between certain roles that makes them stronger or weaker in the presence of certain other roles than they would be alone.  The kind of 'mafia game balance is more (or less) than the sum of its parts' thing.

 

2)  Hosting styles/rules.  Different hosts have different opinions about what goes into Posts, what takes precedence over what, etc, and this often affects the 'strength' of some roles/role combinations. 

 

3)  The Law of sheer numbers.  As far as I can tell, the system doesn't give any weight to numbers (in terms of # of players), but many mafias come down to voting in the end, which is very much about the numbers.  I.e. a game with 3 mafia and 6 'active' innocent roles would have the same calculation as if the game had 3 mafia, 6 'active' roles, and 10 "vanilla" villagers, but I think everyone would agree that the latter is far more in favor of the innocents ;).  Also, generally a player with two different abilities is not as strong as 2 players each with one of those abilities, due to the possibility of blocks/redirect/manipulate as well as voting. 

 

Spoiler for In terms of this game...
 

 

I think it might be fun to play with Bb's system and add some variables to compensate for some of these factors, but overall I like the 'holistic' approach...I feel comfortable enough with my mafia experience, my game theoretical knowledge/intuition, and my general competence that if my over-analytic 'gut' tells me differently than what the basic calculation does, I would lay odds on myself ;P.

 

 

Edit:  Thank you all for the feedback though...as much as I am loath to admit it, I do get a 'spring in my step' from knowing ppl enjoyed my games ^_^


Edited by Yoruichi-san, 24 June 2013 - 03:46 AM.

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Women are definitely stronger. We are [Fe]males, after all...

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#227 flamebirde

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 03:14 AM

You actually made the right choice Flame, he was going to switch it but missed the deadline - had he switched like he meant to, you would have saved a goodie :D

:rageface:


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Mafiosos and mafiosas of the world, unite! And then kill each other in a particularly tricky move that everyone suspects but never anticipates.

stand back. I'm going to apply logic.

 

Come join the battle against the Chromatic Witch! http://brainden.com/...nly-eat-orange/

 

The Coup of Rhotus still needs players!End the 2 year sign up phase! http://brainden.com/...-mafia-signups/


#228 nana77

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 03:11 PM

Y-san is a legendary host as far as I am concerned, it is hard to imagine anyone not enjoying one of her games.

 

The balance sheet does not take into account number of players, that is something that a host has to figure on their own. I find it useful but think its calculations for this game are off, as goodies would have won I think if not for the lynch switching. So the balance sheet is not perfect, but it is handy.

 

I also think the lynch switch would have become op with or without any goodie outting, since by the third day the baddies should have a pretty good idea of who several of the goodies are. Even a goodie should be able to figure out at least one or two roles by paying attention. I like new roles like the rid lynch switch but I think it works better as an indie power since baddies become invincible once they figure out a few roles.

 

Looking back at what the balance sheet says of this game, if the lynch switch had been just a normal rid kill, and the restrictions on goodie roles were lifted, the balance sheet would show this as a pretty balanced game (indy notwithstanding)


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#229 Yoruichi-san

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 07:01 PM

Thanks, nana, I hope you'll be around if I decide to do a sequel to When the Mafia Cry or try the utter insanity that would be Suzumafia ;)

 

Having the 'bird's eye view', I know that the only role the mafia was guessing at before mass outing was Vommack, and had that incorrect (and hence would have ended up dying if they tried), so I disagree that the lynch switch would of been OP in the end without mass outing, since the mafia do not have a spy, and no innocent roles are announced when killed, not even Red Arrow.  If the killing roles had not been killed off by Night 2, they could of easily taken out the lynch switch. 

 

Having thought about it a little bit, here are two preliminary suggestions for what I will henceforth refer to as Bb's Model ;).  (Btw, I was present when he first created the model, and then, as well as now, I commend him on creating a great and easy to use system.  It took a lot of effort, and he did an amazing job, and I have the utmost mafia-tist respect for him...it's a lot easy to critique than to create ;P)

 

The simple suggestion:

 

The mafia BTSC (x2) factor should not apply to passive skills.  As I understand it, the (x2) is due to the ability of the mafia to powerplay and to avoid 'friendly-fire', neither of which applies to passive skills.

 

For example, the mafia get (+6) for a player being invincible at Night, whereas the innocents only get (+3), which seems kind of backwards to me, since an innocent is generally more likely to get killed at Night then a mafia, and the innocents can fall victim to their own friendly-fire.  In my mafia experience, I'd say at least 1/2 of innocents die at Night, whereas less than 1/3 of mafia do.

 

Which brings me to my second, more complicated suggestion:

 

Weigh each ability by a proportionality factor that represents the likelihood to actually be useful.  Admittedly, this is pretty complex, since it involves both taking into account what other roles there are, what the general host rules are, and the proportion of the factions against each other, but that's exactly why I like it...it factors in all three of the issues I mentioned earlier.

 

I don't think there's a simple formula for how to do this for all roles, but I think I would divide it into two parts, one for 'information potential' and the other for 'action potential'. For example, a killing role, in a game in which kills are not blocking and there are no invincible roles that are outed if attacked, is pretty much all 'action potential', and the proportionality factor is would probably be equal to the (probability of killing a mafia)-(probability of killing an innocent) or some such. A straight spy probably has the most straightforward proportionality factor, since it's pure 'information potential', but if there are roles that can 'disguise' themselves or others, then that would have to be factored in. A block is both info and action potential, more or less so info depending on whether the hosts show blocks in the Posts, and what other actions are shown in the Posts.

 

As for general host rules, it's a lot more complicated for complicated setups. For example, this little piece of insanity I dug up from my mad mafia-tist days:

 

Spoiler for The Melancholy of Suzumafia Haruhehe

 

 

The roles of Suzumafia aren't that complicated, but the general set-up has a huge effect on everything, especially game balance.  

 

(Okay, rereading it, I really want to host it now lol...time traveling paradoxes aside...*whistling*)

 

 

Edit:  Actually, this is kind of fun, if I have time between puzzle and game projects (and, oh yeah, that annoying thing called "real life" :rolleyes:), I might work on the Mathgirl Formula ;P)


Edited by Yoruichi-san, 26 June 2013 - 07:03 PM.

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Women are definitely stronger. We are [Fe]males, after all...

Some of what makes me me is real, some of what makes me me is imaginary...I guess I'm just complex. ;P

<3 BBC's Sherlock, the series and the man. "Smart is the new sexy."

Chromatic Witch links now on my 'About Me' page!  Episode 3 is finally here!

When life hands me lemons, I make invisible ink.


#230 araver

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 08:47 PM

Yup, real life gets in the way of a lot of stuff *sigh* Back on topic, yes the system is not foolproof, it still shouldn't be used in games with vanillas (though I still haven't won that argument past Bb) and all-in-one the system does not account for context-specific info. Including order of actions, interactions, other host rules, fact that abilities still can't be weighted the same for an uninformed / informed faction, etc. Her comes the but part. As we were in need of an easy-to-apply system, we've embraced it as a foundation and it's easy to teach to apprentice hosts. Much like newtonian physics. Nana even tried to make it as auto as possible to capture even the laziest hosts possible (and mass verification as required by an industrial boom). The idea is to use it in conjuction with open debates before the game is queued, to allow as much human/community contributions as possible. Back to this game, the goodie restrictions were not visible in this exact instance but could have made an impact. Redirects not being shown almost always disrupt balance thoughts from a host as it easily leads to incorrect assumptions which prove to be fatal in Mafia games. For the uniformed usually. I still think this was imbalanced i.e would show the baddies win more than 1/3 of games. However there is no way I can prove it without statistics/ large number of simulations. Which is not feasible, even if we have bots to host simple mafias we're far from simulating mafia players. I will only throw one more argument in: both minorities had abilities that grew in power (baddies unblockable lynch switch as goodies can be narrowed down or out, and indys no of actions which also benefits from info spreading and even previous trial and error attempts. Goodies did not have that. I would enjoy having a different system to chew at, but I am skeptical that an easy to use system is right around the corner. The goal is not to have a foolproof system but to make the overall balance judgement process starting from a reasonable scaffolding and adding pepper and salt to iron things out... I once dreamed of publishing a research paper on the subject, but obviously when I woke up, I did not find the page I had scribbled my lemmas. Been researching dreaming ever since, on a regular basis, with no luck so far.
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Summer of 2013:
Show the Mafia world you're back in action ... signup for The Coup of Rhotus Mafia.You know you want it, we know you still have it in you so .... Come join the madness!  :thumbsup: 
 
Puzzles open: Strange Creatures I Past puzzles: Mystery Operation Series: I, II, III, IV; Contamination Scenario;
Past games: Crack the Code Series: III, VII, IXPast mafia games: UN Mafia, UN Mafia II, Star Trek Mafia, TMM IV

Almost random quotes:
>> Not only is the universe stranger than we imagine, it is stranger than we can imagine.





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