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Falsely accused correctly


Best Answer dark_magician_92, 15 May 2013 - 04:21 PM

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#1 BMAD

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Posted 15 May 2013 - 12:08 AM

                              Verdict Is Guilty                     Verdict is not Guilty

Committed Crime             80%                             20% False Negative

Innocent of Crime    10% False Positive                          90%

 

The above chart shows the rate that individuals are correctly found guilty or innocent of crimes in a particular jurisdiction.

 

If 1% of the population of residents in this county were tried in court, what are the chances that someone was correctly charged with crime?


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#2 bonanova

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Posted 15 May 2013 - 12:22 AM

Spoiler for looks like


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#3 BMAD

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Posted 15 May 2013 - 12:37 AM

Spoiler for looks like

on the left of the chart (committed the crime or innocent of the crime) tells you whether they are actually guilty or not.


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#4 bonanova

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Posted 15 May 2013 - 01:31 AM

 

Spoiler for looks like

on the left of the chart (committed the crime or innocent of the crime) tells you whether they are actually guilty or not.

 

I think the chart says how effective the court is.

I think we need info about the people.

But maybe this puzzle will surprise me.


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- Bertrand Russell

#5 BMAD

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Posted 15 May 2013 - 01:35 AM

 

 

Spoiler for looks like

on the left of the chart (committed the crime or innocent of the crime) tells you whether they are actually guilty or not.

 

I think the chart says how effective the court is.

I think we need info about the people.

But maybe this puzzle will surprise me.

 

you do not need population numbers, just  assume the town is sufficiently large.


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#6 bonanova

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Posted 15 May 2013 - 10:11 AM

I'll wait to be surprised. Maybe i'm misreading the puzzle.
I don't think you need population estimates; you need guilty estimates.

You ask the probability someone is correctly charged.

If no one in the population has in fact committed a crime, that probability is 0.
If everyone in the population has in fact committed a crime, that probability is 1.

If the OP says on average 2% of the population has committed a crime, then what is ... Etc., the question has an answer.

But again maybe I don't understand the question at all. ;)
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#7 BMAD

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Posted 15 May 2013 - 02:58 PM

I see the error Bonanova was talking about  :duh:   I meant that 1% of the population actually committed a crime (sorry, i am still naive in thinking only criminals are tried in court  :blush:)


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#8 dark_magician_92

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Posted 15 May 2013 - 04:21 PM   Best Answer

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#9 bonanova

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Posted 15 May 2013 - 08:49 PM

dm92 has it.

 

Spoiler for looks like

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The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution.
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