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# How many tickets?

Best Answer nakulendu, 11 March 2013 - 03:33 PM

Spoiler for try my luck

Go to the full post

13 replies to this topic

### #11 bushindo

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 02:40 AM

Spoiler for try my luck

Suppose n tickets numbered 1-n are in a box, and you draw one of them

You don't know how many tickets are in the box, but you are asked to estimate how many there are.

Your ticket has the number p on it.

What estimate of n has the highest likelihood of being correct?

Spoiler for i think

You are both correct. bona_gold_star.gif

nakulendu posted first, so I marked his answer as the solution.

The solutions above are making some assumptions about the properties of underlying distribution of N, which may or may not be warranted depending on your interpretation of the OP.

Spoiler for

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### #12 bonanova

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 04:04 AM

Bushindo, Thanks.
I learn so much from you.

Is there also a maximum likelihood estimate of the underlying assumptions

that would make the maximum likelihood estimate of n well defined?

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The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution.
- Bertrand Russell

### #13 Debasis

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 10:57 AM

Suppose n tickets numbered 1-n are in a box, and you draw one of them

You don't know how many tickets are in the box, but you are asked to estimate how many there are.

Your ticket has the number p on it.

What estimate of n has the highest likelihood of being correct?

It seems like this problem is dependent upon what is a reasonable a priori distribution for N.

Spoiler for

OMG!you are one hell of a methematician...lol

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### #14 bushindo

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 04:59 PM

Bushindo, Thanks.
I learn so much from you.

Is there also a maximum likelihood estimate of the underlying assumptions

that would make the maximum likelihood estimate of n well defined?

Thanks for the kind words, bonanova, I also learned much from you over the years. The two wonderful examples (among many) that come quickest to mind are Hole in a Sphere and Maiden Escape, both of which taught me completely new ways of thinking.

Spoiler for

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