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* * * * - 1 votes

How many tickets?


Best Answer nakulendu, 11 March 2013 - 03:33 PM

Spoiler for try my luck

Go to the full post


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13 replies to this topic

#1 bonanova

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:52 AM

Suppose n tickets numbered 1-n are in a box, and you draw one of them

You don't know how many tickets are in the box, but you are asked to estimate how many there are.

Your ticket has the number p on it.

 

What estimate of n has the highest likelihood of being correct?


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The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution.
- Bertrand Russell

#2 Krishna Kutty

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 03:05 PM

Spoiler for


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#3 bonanova

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 03:11 PM

Spoiler for

 

Since you don't know the value of n, but are asked to estimate it, you don't know that p and n are different.


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The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution.
- Bertrand Russell

#4 nakulendu

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 03:33 PM   Best Answer

Spoiler for try my luck


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#5 soop

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 04:16 PM

Spoiler for rrgghh, trying to get my head around this.

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#6 dark_magician_92

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 06:08 PM

Suppose n tickets numbered 1-n are in a box, and you draw one of them

You don't know how many tickets are in the box, but you are asked to estimate how many there are.

Your ticket has the number p on it.

 

What estimate of n has the highest likelihood of being correct?

Spoiler for i think


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#7 bushindo

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:42 PM

Suppose n tickets numbered 1-n are in a box, and you draw one of them

You don't know how many tickets are in the box, but you are asked to estimate how many there are.

Your ticket has the number p on it.

 

What estimate of n has the highest likelihood of being correct?

 

It seems like this problem is dependent upon what is a reasonable a priori distribution for N.

Spoiler for

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#8 bushindo

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:46 PM



Suppose n tickets numbered 1-n are in a box, and you draw one of them
You don't know how many tickets are in the box, but you are asked to estimate how many there are.
Your ticket has the number p on it.
 
What estimate of n has the highest likelihood of being correct?

 
It seems like this problem is dependent upon what is a reasonable a priori distribution for N.
Spoiler for
 
 
Oh wait, the answer is much simpler than that. Turns out this is the easiest bonanova puzzle I have ever seen =)
Spoiler for

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#9 bonanova

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 12:39 AM

 



Suppose n tickets numbered 1-n are in a box, and you draw one of them
You don't know how many tickets are in the box, but you are asked to estimate how many there are.
Your ticket has the number p on it.
 
What estimate of n has the highest likelihood of being correct?

 
It seems like this problem is dependent upon what is a reasonable a priori distribution for N.
Spoiler for
 
 
Oh wait, the answer is much simpler than that. Turns out this is the easiest bonanova puzzle I have ever seen =)
Spoiler for

LOL

That may be the first and only time I use LOL in this forum.

 

I'm not that clever. Really.

But I love it. It's a better puzzle than the one I intended.

Honorable mention.

.


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The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution.
- Bertrand Russell

#10 bonanova

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 12:48 AM

Spoiler for try my luck

 

 

 


Suppose n tickets numbered 1-n are in a box, and you draw one of them

You don't know how many tickets are in the box, but you are asked to estimate how many there are.

Your ticket has the number p on it.

 

What estimate of n has the highest likelihood of being correct?

Spoiler for i think

 

You are both correct. bona_gold_star.gif

 

nakulendu posted first, so I marked his answer as the solution.


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The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution.
- Bertrand Russell




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