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# How many tickets?

### #1

Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:52 AM

Suppose * n* tickets numbered 1-

*are in a box, and you draw one of them*

**n**You don't know how many tickets are in the box, but you are asked to estimate how many there are.

Your ticket has the number * p* on it.

What estimate of * n* has the highest likelihood of being correct?

*The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution.*

- Bertrand Russell

### #2

Posted 11 March 2013 - 03:05 PM

### #3

Posted 11 March 2013 - 03:11 PM

Spoiler for

Since you don't know the value of * n*, but are asked to estimate it, you don't know that

*and*

**p***are different.*

**n***The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution.*

- Bertrand Russell

### #4

Posted 11 March 2013 - 03:33 PM Best Answer

### #5

Posted 11 March 2013 - 04:16 PM

### #6

Posted 11 March 2013 - 06:08 PM

Suppose

tickets numbered 1-nare in a box, and you draw one of themnYou don't know how many tickets are in the box, but you are asked to estimate how many there are.

Your ticket has the number

on it.p

What estimate of

has the highest likelihood of being correct?nSpoiler for i think

### #7

Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:42 PM

Suppose

tickets numbered 1-nare in a box, and you draw one of themnYou don't know how many tickets are in the box, but you are asked to estimate how many there are.

Your ticket has the number

on it.p

What estimate of

has the highest likelihood of being correct?n

It seems like this problem is dependent upon what is a reasonable a priori distribution for N.

### #8

Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:46 PM

Supposetickets numbered 1-nare in a box, and you draw one of themn

You don't know how many tickets are in the box, but you are asked to estimate how many there are.

Your ticket has the numberon it.p

What estimate ofhas the highest likelihood of being correct?n

It seems like this problem is dependent upon what is a reasonable a priori distribution for N.

Spoiler for

Oh wait, the answer is much simpler than that. Turns out this is the easiest bonanova puzzle I have ever seen =)

### #9

Posted 12 March 2013 - 12:39 AM

Supposetickets numbered 1-nare in a box, and you draw one of themn

You don't know how many tickets are in the box, but you are asked to estimate how many there are.

Your ticket has the numberon it.p

What estimate ofhas the highest likelihood of being correct?n

It seems like this problem is dependent upon what is a reasonable a priori distribution for N.

Spoiler for

Oh wait, the answer is much simpler than that. Turns out this is the easiest bonanova puzzle I have ever seen =)

Spoiler for

LOL

That may be the first and **only** time I use LOL in this forum.

I'm not that clever. Really.

But I love it. It's a better puzzle than the one I intended.

Honorable mention.

.

*The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution.*

- Bertrand Russell

### #10

Posted 12 March 2013 - 12:48 AM

Spoiler for try my luck

Suppose

tickets numbered 1-nare in a box, and you draw one of themnYou don't know how many tickets are in the box, but you are asked to estimate how many there are.

Your ticket has the number

on it.p

What estimate of

has the highest likelihood of being correct?nSpoiler for i think

**nakulendu** posted first, so I marked his answer as the solution.

*The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution.*

- Bertrand Russell

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