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Darts at Morty's


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16 replies to this topic

#1 bonanova

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 07:30 AM

By his own admission Alex spent too much
time in the back corner at Morty's throwing
darts. But the results could not be ignored: 
he cold hit the bullseye reproducibly 97% 
of the time.

Davey, on the other hand could hit only
90% of his attempts, and Ian's accuracy
was worse, at 80%.  Neither if them would
play Alex for that reason.

Last night Alex proposed that the three
of them play: Alex's single dart against
the better of his opponents' two darts.

Davey scribbled some 1's and 0's on a
napkin, trying to work out the odds. He
wasn't certain, but he figured that the
two of them just might be able finally to
win some beer money from their nemesis,
and he persuaded Ian to give it a try. 

Had Alex finally made a bad bet?
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#2 MikeD

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:36 AM

Spoiler for i hope the logic is right

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hi again, everyone. Nice to be back home. :)


#3 mrzinks

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 11:24 AM

Yes :-)
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#4 psykomakia

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 12:38 PM

I'm sure there is something wrong with this logic, but...

Spoiler for eh?

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#5 MikeD

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 02:14 PM

@psykomakia
Spoiler for the flaw in your logic (i think)

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hi again, everyone. Nice to be back home. :)


#6 curr3nt

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 02:52 PM

Spoiler for ...

Edited by curr3nt, 23 July 2012 - 02:58 PM.

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#7 Rockmond

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 04:48 PM

Seems pretty simple. The odds that Davey and Ian both miss is 2% (.2*.1). The odds that Alex will miss is 3%, so he has made a bad bet. Is there something more complicated that I am missing?
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#8 psykomakia

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 06:01 PM

@psykomakia

Spoiler for the flaw in your logic (i think)


Spoiler for Nah

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#9 jim

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 07:52 PM

It seems very unlikely that dart players in a pub would play a game where they simply count the numner of bullseyes.
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#10 MikeD

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 09:42 PM

I see where my mistake was. I like the way you worked it out curr3nt.
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hi again, everyone. Nice to be back home. :)





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